Chicago Storm

Had a severe t'storm pass just north of here at home a few hours ago, which produced some hail along it's path of travel. Ended up with a fairly good light show with it here, especially for nearing late September.

Today/tonight looks moderate risk-ish across SE IA/NE MO/W IL.

It's been a while since I've had a chance to throw out any thoughts regarding the medium/long range, but really there hasn't been anything that has significantly changed since my last post in the summer thread from mid-August. The pattern we have seen dominant much of the summer was expected to continue through the end of August, and it ended up doing so. For the first half of September, a variation of this same pattern has continued...Though with a bit more troughing along the West Coast at times and a few transient bouts of ridging up in the Greenland/North Pole area at times. We are finally going to see a significant change coming up shortly, but it appears as though it will be short lived. As is being mentioned by many, we are looking at a warm up for late this week through the first half of next week across a good chunk of the sub-forum. This warm up will bring a re-introduction to temperatures into the 80's/90's for many for a several day period. This warm up will be a product of an increasing -PNA/West Coast trough, one of the most significant we have seen all summer. This will pump up ridging across the Central/Southern Plain, Ohio Valley and Southeast...Leading the the aforementioned period of warmer/hotter temps. Beyond this time (After mid-next week), like clock work it appears we'll head back into some variation of the dominant pattern we've seen much of the summer.

mid-march is 6 months away.

There were numerous couplets with non-severe t’storms/rain showers across NE IL and Southern Lake Michigan today. Some of this activity, as alluded to by madwx, did spin up into an MCV or two.

SLP fairly visible on radar the past few hours, moving north over Lake Michigan. The mild lake and frictional land/water differences on either side may be having a positive feedback on things a bit. .

Yea, that more significant couplet had to have produced.

Not surprising, but MDW was the only site to tag 90°+ in NE IL. 90°+ day tally for the year... 27 - MDW 19 - RFD 19 - Ex-Home 16 - ORD 16 - Current Home

Ironically, that summer lead into a 3rd consecutive fall La Niña…which is also the case this year.

Even taking into account how MDW can be, I'd imagine it hasn't happened too much.

MDW was the only location to tag 90 in NE IL today. 90°+ day tally for the year... 26 - MDW19 - RFD19 - Ex-Home16 - ORD16 - Current Home

that’s two. need 6 more at the minimum.

It worked out this month, but I'm not touching that for Sept. As you mentioned, there's a few opportunities coming up... Thur-Sat is the first window of opportunity, and then again *possibly* later next week/following weekend for the next window. That second period is far less certain, with tropical/cut-off ULL potential somewhere.

bump.

The "requirements" are sort of fluid these days, so you probably could say it was one in some terms. As for that NY activity, that was separate from the main MCS across IL/MI/IN/OH/ON.

it’s not realistic because of the issues the GFS is having, not because it can’t or never has happened.

It’s still big wind/derecho season, though the tail end of it.

too bad that’s not realistic.

As a few others have said, the heatwaves and increasing drought in May and June had you thinking a hot summer was on the way. But the persistent GOA/Pac NW and Hudson/Greenland troughing combo that developed in June really snuffed that hot summer idea.

Warm biased PWK was the only other location to hit 90+ (91). 90°+ day tally for the year... 25 - MDW19 - RFD19 - Ex-Home16 - ORD16 - Current Home

Easy escape today, which locks it.

I was in the NW suburbs (Ex-home) when the severe warned line of t'storms hit earlier this afternoon. Ended up with peak wind gusts of 50-55MPH, but did not come across any damage.

For a little while this morning I was on the significant train, but watching how things have evolved the past few hours this morning, I’ve quickly exited the train a while ago. The environment is fairly good overall, with… Ample moisture, ample instability, a disturbance moving through, a quality plume of higher lapse rates and some clear skies for heating. However, as noted by an expanding low level cloud shield ahead of the line, there is a stable layer in place. This, in part with a few other things (such as lagging shear), is limiting intensification. So instead right now we have a weaker line of t’storms moving east, with outflow racing out ahead. Maybe it’ll change in a few hours, but by then it might be too late for the Chicago area.

4th and 8, grossman is your qb.

Brushed by today, but shall see how tomorrow trends.