Chicago Storm

this isn’t looking so hot right now. .

one that melts on contact. .

For the first 1/3rd of October (Through close to the 10th-ish), things look to remain as they generally have been. Feels like I've said this about 50 times over the past few months, but for this first chunk of October we will see a continuation of the general pattern we have seen dominate a good portion of the summer and the pattern we are currently in. The constant troughing centered around the Hudson/Greenland, which has been relentless, will continue to be the focus for weather in most of our sub-forum. All in all, this will lead to generally zzz and dry weather activity wise, and a fall-like temperature regime for the first 1/3rd of the month. One wildcard to watch will be the potential for the splitting of the newly formed seasonal PV in the Arctic. The GEFS were showing this in the very extended, and as time goes on, they continue to latch onto this idea even more-so. That could alter things for the end of the first 1/3rd of the month and second 1/3rd of the month.

Everything has panned out pretty much as expected for mid to late Sept...With the heat wave in mid Sept, followed by a return to a similar pattern as to what has dominated much of the summer (Pictured below). Oct thoughts to come in a later post, but not much change expected to start.

Summary regarding what to expect for the first 1/4 to 1/2 of October… And .

yea, it usually is. .

Not surprisingly, levels are running below there as well...Though a bit less than other sites in the bay area. The generally NE wind has been running nearly parallel to the length of the bay blowing out. This isn't really a situation where the water is going to stack up or has nowhere to go, as it is just existing into the Gulf.

SevereStudios cam set up WSW of Punta Gorda is getting rocked right now, the worst it has been all day visually there. The W-N eyewall is still potent, with new hot towers visible on IR satellite and a higher end velocity signature still. There also looks to be a sustained MV signature just north of Punta Gorda, on the NW side of the COC as well.

G108KT at Punta Gorda. KPGD 281935Z AUTO 10065G108KT 1/2SM RA FG OVC011 24/24 RMK AO2 PK WND 100108/1927 RAB1812B1836B1849B1854B03B07 TSB1802E1847E09 P0064 T02390239

KPGD 281921Z AUTO 09067G94KT 1/4SM +RA FG 24/24 RMK AO2 PK WND 08095/1910 LTG DSNT NE AND E RAB1812B1836B1849B1854B03B07 TSB1802E1847E09 P0056 T02390239 $

I'll be down there in a week and a half. Wish timing lined up better for me.

That depends on your definition of warm.

And now 101° today.

Paducah hit 100° today. .

I couldn't believe it while watching it, especially with a solid high cloud deck.

Some of the 90°+ high temps from across the area today... 94 MDW 93 Home 90 RFD90°+ day tally for the year...28 - MDW20 - RFD19 - Ex-Home17 - Current Home16 - ORD

Not only CAMS, but most other guidance also didn't have much of anything for the most part.

A severe t’storm headed towards here at ORD faded as it approached, but it still provided great garden variety action. Looks like home may have faired a bit better, with a more sustained line of severe warned t’storms having hit there a bit ago.

Yea, the boundary washed out rapidly, and at the same time cirrus from severe activity north moved in...but it didn't stop the rise. MDW made it well over 90, and ORD fell well short.

Severe warned supercell t'storm up around RFD has a broad/weak couplet.

It's 99 in Muscatine currently.

Unless there's a late rally if the lake enhanced OFB that's currently across the metro washes out, today's likely last shot at 90+ for the year will fall short at both ORD and MDW.

Had a severe t'storm pass just north of here at home a few hours ago, which produced some hail along it's path of travel. Ended up with a fairly good light show with it here, especially for nearing late September.

Today/tonight looks moderate risk-ish across SE IA/NE MO/W IL.

It's been a while since I've had a chance to throw out any thoughts regarding the medium/long range, but really there hasn't been anything that has significantly changed since my last post in the summer thread from mid-August. The pattern we have seen dominant much of the summer was expected to continue through the end of August, and it ended up doing so. For the first half of September, a variation of this same pattern has continued...Though with a bit more troughing along the West Coast at times and a few transient bouts of ridging up in the Greenland/North Pole area at times. We are finally going to see a significant change coming up shortly, but it appears as though it will be short lived. As is being mentioned by many, we are looking at a warm up for late this week through the first half of next week across a good chunk of the sub-forum. This warm up will bring a re-introduction to temperatures into the 80's/90's for many for a several day period. This warm up will be a product of an increasing -PNA/West Coast trough, one of the most significant we have seen all summer. This will pump up ridging across the Central/Southern Plain, Ohio Valley and Southeast...Leading the the aforementioned period of warmer/hotter temps. Beyond this time (After mid-next week), like clock work it appears we'll head back into some variation of the dominant pattern we've seen much of the summer.