Chicago Storm

an mcs (with some severe risk) is the same as a fall storm these days, eh.

600DM ridge centered near STL. It's what dreams are made of.

Time to put this to bed... ...GRR... July (So far): +0.21" June: -2.52" May: +0.07" April: +1.20" March: +1.11"

@Hoosier is going to hold on to the 18z OP GFS run, and never let go.

Final high temps for today across the area... 95 MDW 94 ORD 95 RFD 97 Ex-Home Also should mention that MDW somehow hit 90 yesterday. 90°+ day tally for the year... 17 - MDW16 - RFD14 - Ex-Home12 - Current Home10 - ORD

Not our sub-forum, but Sioux Falls is currently getting the 2022 version of the Cedar Rapids 2020 derecho RIJ...

The criteria for an EHW outside of Cook Co is two days of heat indices of 110+.

This is why BAM is and always has been terrible.

Hopefully the SPC upgrades portions of SD/MN/NE/IA to a moderate risk. Looks like a textbook long-track MCS/derecho setup. An MCS currently in SD, which originated in far W MT yesterday evening, has matured and is tied to a nice wave topping the ridge over the Central US. Should see that complex ride the instability gradient ESE through the afternoon/evening, acorss portions of SD/NE/MN/IA. How far east it makes it will be dependent on other developing convection through the day ahead of it, near a frontal boundary in place.

As the MCS moved through, had peak wind gusts of 55MPH ORD, 51MPH MDW and 50-60MPH here at home.

It handled during the day better than the NAM, but still not the best. It has nothing tonight.

Given it hasn’t handled activity today correctly, and odds are won’t tonight either, probably easily undercut whatever it shows around here.

There was an embedded supercell. A very Gulf Coast/land falling TC like situation.

CAMS look to be useless today, given there’s no agreement. Gonna have to ride observational trends.

Actually tagged 90 at a few isolated locations across the area today, including the world-renowned ex-home and at DPA. 90°+ day tally for the year... 15 - MDW15 - RFD13 - Ex-Home11 - Current Home9 - ORD

POP’s were only at 30-50% as of yesterday afternoon, so shouldn’t be surprising.

It was confirmed earlier last week, based on my drone footage.

By the way, I can confirm ORD did not run cool today. MDW is clearly just doing something special.

Final high temps for today across the area... 94 MDW 92 ORD 92 RFD 94 Ex-Home 90°+ day tally for the year... 15 - MDW15 - RFD12 - Ex-Home11 - Current Home9 - ORD Edit: Also, had a sneaky high of 90 at ex-home yesterday as well.

94 MDW and 91 ORD currently.

MDW and ORD both at 89° currently. An area of cirrus moving through, leveling the playing field a bit. So it appears sunny days with S-SW-W winds is when MDW outperforms all.

If you take the Euro weeklies at face value, it has the ridge building northward across the Rockies and Plains. While not directly over us, we would still benefit. We’ll see how it all trends as we get closer and more into ENS range.

It’s a product of the deeper mixing we’ve been seeing on a daily basis. I’m pretty sure that every day so far during this several day stretch, we’ve mixed to at least 850mb.

A NW flow pattern will do that to ya.

Delayed, but not denied.