Chicago Storm

That’s not even close to being an issue in this case.

Experienced almost every precip type today... Rain/snow/snow pellets/ice pellets/graupel.

Grass has already greened up out here in the suburbs, with some trees/shrubs slowly starting to pop as well. Also, forgot to mention... Final snowfall totals of 0.1" ORD and 1.5" RFD with the first snow event last Thur/Fri (March 31-April 1st), and then 0.1" ORD and 1.7" RFD with the second snow event last Sat (April 2nd).

Haven't updated in a while... As was a possibility that was mentioned at the end of the above post, we did end up with a pattern change as we moved from mid to late March, which is the same pattern everyone is currently enjoying. This pattern has been dominated by Greenland area ridging (-NAO) and a Aleutian/Gulf of Alaska low/trough(+WPO/+EPO). This has lead to the active and cool pattern we have been experiencing across much of the region, since the week of March 21st. Interestingly enough, this pattern has featured the first real -NAO we've seen since mid-December. Our next pattern flip is already in the process of occurring, and is one which many of you have already mentioned bringing warmer temp and severe weather opportunities for next week. This pattern will be driven by a large chunk of the Aleutian/GOA low migrating SE with a -PNA setting in, with push of Aleutian/GOA ridging (-WPO/-EPO) with developing for a time. This will lead to the active pattern next week, with the aforementioned warm temps and severe potential for a large portion of the Central/Eastern US for a several day period. However... It is looking increasingly likely that we'll see another pattern flip late next week and into next weekend (Easter Weekend). Solid support from ENS regarding this pattern change, with it looking like a +WPO/+EPO/+PNA pattern. This would support a large low/trough in the Aleutian/GOA area once again, along with a ridge around the Western US...and means that the mean trough would set up over the Lakes/Northeast once again. A wild card will be what happens with the NAO, which at this time appears to be trending neutral or a bit negative. All in all, enjoy the brief pattern flip with warmer/severe potential next week, cause it won't be sticking around yet.

some illinois folks would disagree.

Nice cold front/OFB collision a bit ago in W TX…

And approximately the 1.5-2 weeks prior to that were good to great.

There have definitely been worse starts to spring.

Not really remotely close in most aspects. The biggest difference of all, is that was a wrapped-up/stronger SW-NW moving storm system.

Looking like an axis of 1-3” of snowfall into N IL and the northern two tiers of the NW LOT CWA for tomorrow morning/afternoon.

Looking increasingly likely that there could even be a DAB-2" of snowfall across portions of N IL as well, tonight into tomorrow morning.

Synoptic winds are not going to be that high.

Peak synoptic wind gusts yesterday/last night of 44MPH ORD, 47MPH MDW and 54MPH RFD. Peak convective shower wind gusts yesterday afternoon of 45MPH ORD, 47MPH MDW and 58MPH RFD.

Severe t’storm warning for portions of the metro. 72MPH wind gust at ARR recently.

Things look very supportive for squalls, lightning/thunder, graupel and higher wind gust potential.

Disturbance spinning down through IA..,

I wouldn’t go as far as to say that. Currently no real sign that the current PNA regime is going to change any time soon.

I’ve been too uninterested to make an updated post in the spring thread, but another pattern change has occurred. This pattern will be heavily influenced by a -NAO, leading to a mean trough axis across the N Plains, Midwest, Lakes and Northeast.

Might be permanently, based on the heading it was taking.

Going to put it out of its misery, after the coms issues it has had all day.

So, so bad. Appears to have been on the ground 6 minutes prior to a warning being issued, with a clear cut CC sig. Took until nearly 10 minutes later for a confirmed tag. That’s as bad as it gets.

Shall shift this to the new seasonal thread… As a few have pointed out, next week looks fairly mild overall, with this being a product of another pattern change. This new pattern change is already underway, with the effects of it being felt in the sub-forum starting Sunday, then continuing through all of next week, and possibly through the following weekend as well (Perhaps beyond too?). This pattern will feature a +AO/+NAO/+EPO/neutral PNA. This will lead to an overall mild period temp wise, and still a somewhat active pattern. Snow chances will obviously be low, but not zero, especially in MN/WI/MI. Beyond this there are signs of another pattern adjustment occurring around next weekend (19-20th) or into the following week.

Final event snowfall totals of 0.9” ORD, 1.6” MDW and 0.2” RFD.