Chicago Storm
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Everything posted by Chicago Storm
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If you were even following the OP GFS that tells me all I need to know. These totals were always in the envelop of possibility. The cut off was the main issue point, and ended up in the southern tier of Wisconsin counties, which was always a possibility as well.
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Not an over-performance at all. FV3/GGEM/ECMWF all showed 2-5" across the metro for the past 1 day+, so that's not really correct.
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Nothing about this is really over-performing really. Quality guidance had 2-5" for the metro, which is on track to occur.
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Some guidance just did not do well. GGEM/FV3/ECMWF did the best, no doubt. The OP GFS needs to be replaced by the FV3 ASAP, because it was horrible. The NAM/HRRR/RAP were beyond horrible . The SLP ended up further north than most guidance expected even just 1 day ago, as well as some guidance overestimating the power of the dry air advecting in...usually it's the opposite. This time yesterday the HRRR had 0 snow for much of the Chicago metro, where 2-5" is likely now and was shown by most other guidance.
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Snowing decently across the LOT CWA right now. Totals range from a DAB near the IL/WI border to 6-7" far south. 1.7" where I am in Oswego right now, with about 1" at home.
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For those in Northern Illinois... Some guidance is handling saturation terribly. That I've looked through so far, the NAM, 3km NAM, HRRR, RAP are all much to slow with advancing the snow, some by 4-5 hours. That could play a later roll in final accumulations.
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Roughly, yea I would agree with that.
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You worry too much. Enjoy the 6"+
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The RAP has jumped north the past few runs, so should be interesting to see how it handles things.
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They are clueless on this one.
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You're more than fine. Northern Illinois is the only area of concern regarding the dry air issues.
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Not sure what's worse...Their handling of this system or the 12/1 tornado outbreak.
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They have been really behind the ball on this one.
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Aloft is where the issue is.
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It's a tough call for Northern Illinois, and the the LOT/DVN CWA's right now. Typically in these situations with dry air intrusion from the NE, a sharp gradient is the way to go...and happens 9/10 times. However, it's hard to overlook most guidance, which has a couple inches further north and a loose gradient...compared to say the NAM that is drier further north and has a sharp gradient.
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The one thing holding you guys back is the lack of a slider bar to scroll through model runs, as COD has.
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18z NAM? It was definitely further south at the surface and 500mb.
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Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Chicago Storm replied to snowlover2's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
This place is well past it’s prime. A lot of the heavy hitters have left, outside of a rare drop in. -
Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Chicago Storm replied to snowlover2's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
zzzzz . -
Peak wind gust of 49MPH at ORD on Tuesday. .
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0.2” here and at ORD on the backside of this system. .
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Gonna go with 1.1” for ORD. .
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Zzzzz .
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Had a nice period of freezing fog here Sunday evening/night. There was widespread heavy frost on everything, making it look post snow/ice storm-like. .
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Ended up with 0.5" of snow here Sunday night/Monday morning, on the backside of the last system.
