Chicago Storm

thanks for playing.

It has been mild, and will continue to be (minus the possible quick cold shot next week). zzz for the foreseeable future.

Phases 2 and 3 are warmer phases in December. Phase 3 has the highest significant for a larger portion of the region. ENS teleconnections, combined with the projected MJO, would suggest a fairly unfavorable pattern through the 20th. That's not to say it won't snow at all, but things will be unfavorable for anything decent unless we thread the needle. Average/mild conditions will likely persist as well during that time.

0.1" of snow at ORD and 0.4" here last night.

ENS would suggest that at least the first week of December will likely be a lost cause for the most part, if trends are correct. They do show some of the same heading into week 2...However, I wouldn't put too much stock into anything that far out. The MJO entering the COD in a cold phase recently will likely help keep us from all out torching for now. It should be noted though that guidance wants to push the MJO out of the COD, and into "warmer" phases 2 and 3 during the first week of December. If that happens and teleconnections are in the vicinity of whats currently shown, then maybe a torch-y period could be a real possibility. Also...Some bad news...The ECMWF weeklies are a torch from ~Dec. 20-Jan. 10th (end of run).

ENS take the EPO/AO/NAO/PNA all neutral to +, some very +. Could have a decent stretch of mild and winter-less upcoming.

Back to back crushers leads to this... .

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Looks like a mild and wet pattern could set up into at least early December. Guidance has been trending towards a -PNA, along with a neutral to perhaps +NAO/AO. Might be a delayed, but not denied kind of situation for indian summer.

18z Euro with another step back.

GGEM and Euro took a step back. It's gonna be hard to get anything really good out of the setup, given where the main PV lobe is located up over the Hudson, combined with +PNA in place. The new 12z ECMWF/GGEM runs are probably the best case scenario. I'd hedge somewhere between them and what the GFS has for now.

Hittin' it on a Tuesday morning, huh?

Yes. .

Still waiting for TH to make a valid point.

This RI we’re seeing now that the storm is moving over the Gulf Stream is unfathomable.

Questionable at best. .

turtlehurricane gonna be waiting a bit for that RI. .

Lookin’ pretty dire. How much for metfan? .

Man, that due W wobble must mean it’s gonna hit MIA. .

Love these ‘canes that get hyped and then go OTS. .

Looks like this season will come down to June. Given trends and what has happened thus far, one can't really be that excited, but we'll see...

Neither of those are really "day of" issues though.

Odds are there will be some sort of severe in the Plains towards the first days of May... Still a long way out obviously, but that should be the first potential...with more at or just after mid-month and beyond. LR GFS, but it shows it as well... .

See you in June.

Looks like weatherbell.