LibertyBell

JFK must have felt a lot hotter than either LGA or the Park since the DP was near 80 there!

Do you think it's possible with our climate changing to one of more heat and moisture that we might actually stabilize with the number of highs we have in the 90s and temps of 100 or above might become a once in a decade occurrence? Instead of what the climate models have been predicting which is something like an average of 3 per year by 2050? In that case perhaps we should change how we measure heat to mean days with a dew point of 75 or higher? This is becoming like Florida, which also rarely gets 100 degree days, but certainly has a lot of high humidity.

whats the largest size hail we've had in our part of Nassau County? I was overseas in Europe one year in the 90s and when I came back I was told that a car dealership in Hewlett had many of their cars windshields destroyed because of large hail. I dont remember the exact year, but it was in the summer (June or July) in 1994 I think?

too bad hail doesn't count as snow but that doesn't mean it can't be treated as such by winter sports enthusiasts ;-) I wonder how long it stayed on the ground?

I was just going to post some stuff about wintry events of the past that I just remembered. There seems to be a boundary that sets up just SE of Oceanside in many borderline events. Example- in March 1993, the "Superstorm"- Oceanside got 10-11 inches of snow, like NYC/JFK got, but if you drove east of there totals quickly dropped- Massapequa only got 6 inches. Another one was the big ice storm in Jan 1994 where we got 2 inches of ZR! Just east of here the temps rose above freezing during the storm while we stayed below freezing the whole time! In the VD 2008 storm, a similar thing happened (albeit on a smaller scale) where we stayed below freezing during the entire event while Freeport and Long Beach rose well above freezing. We even had an event in Feb 2010 when we got 5" of a very wet snow while it was raining in Long Beach! Even when temps are well below freezing throughout the area, we seem to do better in el ninos- in the Feb 1983 storm, we had close to 2 feet of snow while NYC only had 18" In Jan 2016, our big one, we had 30 inches of snow while areas east and south of us had less. And who can forget PD2, where we also got in on 24+ totals!

Yea it was being called a hail glacier. I remember this happened a few years ago in the mountains in Mexico too. Not this extreme though. I wonder what the actual amount of hail that fell was? I take it this is the hail equivalent of drifting, so it was like they had 5-6 ft drifts lol.

Wow that's really interesting- I was wondering why we were warmer than JFK! Too bad this doesn't translate to rain/snow/mix lines in the winter though

Anyone hear about the crazy five feet of hail that fell in Mexico? Guadelajara I think?

the northeast needs to have more a/c too the pac nw also doesn't have enough

Even London and the rest of the UK do you think?

We get this way sometimes, sea breezes are far more fragile than rain/snow lines unless the wind is pretty strong. I had 90 degrees or over all four days- 90-93-90-93 The humidity was the worst today.

Excellent account. BTW we hit 90 here, I dont know why JFK lagged behind. There was a NW wind and temps definitely hit 90 on the south shore.

Was the derecho the bigger deal or the F2 tornado that hit close by? By the way I am still a bit confused of the F scale vs the EF scale, why did they not simply reassign the old F scale numbers and retain the name instead of categorizing older tornadoes with an obsolete scale that no longer exists? Like the way they changed the SS scale for hurricanes they could have changed the mph ranges for the F scale instead of having to create a whole new scale, and then the F scale could apply to both old and new tornadoes.

I want that too, if we had a few things fall into place we could have actually had that in 09-10 and 10-11. I read about a couple of 100" NYC/PHL winters from back in the early and mid 1800s in the Pennsylvania Weather Book.

by the way did you see the data showing how - nao are vastly more common in spring than winter? I wonder why that is.

and if things go according to form, we'll have a raging + NAO come winter.

SFO reached 100 for the first time in any month outside of September!

Yes, it's amazing to see the recovery! I hope they are doing the same thing for the Jersey Shore and the Rockaways too!

They have a plan to extend the land around Manhattan too. I forgot by how many yards, but it was announced a few weeks ago.

I see quite a few going for a warm and dry summer but enhanced risk of tropical activity later on along the east coast

Thanks, it makes me wonder how many storms and canes we actually had in 1933, the record which was overtaken by 2005. It's possible that 1933 had more if the records from back then are that incomplete! About the AMO, I wonder if that cycle is of variable length, it seems like the earlier periods of the warm phase were somewhat dissimilar from each other (1950s-1960s), (1990s-2000s), etc.

Very interesting, so there hasn't been some sort of cyclic or pattern change that would cause this! How far back would you say that the HURDAT2 list is reasonably accurate, both on quantity and intensity?

Right. But from a climatological and historical perspective, the SSTs of the northern gulf shelf by Sept-Oct have generally cooled below what is required to support a rapidly deepening Cat 5. Sure, the central, southern GOM and Bay of Campeche would continue supporting Cat 5 intensity through October, but those storms tend to weaken drastically if steered into the N. GOM. Major hurricane Opal being a prime example. October of 2018 hopefully remains anomalous in its mutliple contributing factors that lead to Michael, as generally multiple cold fronts have swept through the northern gulf by mid-to-late September and subsequent dry continental air plus radiational cooling has brought down mean heat content by 3-4°C. Again, it's one thing to consider a rare Category 5 threat in July, August, perhaps still even September, but October? Michael is hopefully the rarest of generational occurrences. Yes, we dont need to have another one of these supercanes. Going by purely statistical records, we seem to get a Cat 5 landfalling cane in the US about every 30 years or so and this is the first one that's happened in October. August into early September is when the others have occurred. The question I have besides this is a general one about the Atlantic basin- has there been some change in the general circulation pattern to increase the number of high intensity hurricanes in October across the totality of the Atlantic basin? I know we have a secondary peak in average activity in October, but it seems like over the past number of years we've seen more major hurricanes in October.

Reading back through this thread, I was dead wrong in one point while trying to discredit preconceptons or misconceptions about landfalling Cat 5s along the N. GOM coast, including rapid intensification over its shallow shelf. I never once imagined that scenario being possible in the month of October. Then having that play out approximately one year later? Crazy! Some of the strongest 'canes have occurred in October though- it seems to be the new peak month for the strongest 'canes.

I visited my other home (in the Poconos) over the weekend and there's 10"-15" on the ground over there and it's very heavy and hard to move. I didn't even attempt to shovel my driveway there and just parked on the road and went inside to make sure everything was fine (I only stay in that house during the warm season.)