LibertyBell

I cant help but think that storm set the tone for the next 5 weeks. Sometimes you wonder, does the pattern make the storm or does the storm make the pattern? In that case I think it was both. If that storm hadn't happened, I dont think we get our historic month in January either. As you might recall, the LR forecasts for that winter weren't for a lot of snow and we had already had the cold for a couple of weeks and whiffed on a couple of storms so people were frustrated and the "no December snow" analogs were being rolled out for how bad a winter can be in a La Nina when it doesn't snow at least 3 inches in December. And then look what happened- we blasted right past 3 inches lol.

They really were on target with having that blizzard warning ending at 7 am because thats right when the snow ended lol, we got that last lingering band that dropped a few inches overnight and it was clearing out right at 7 am perfect timing for the official measurement See thats one the people who measure snow should never get wrong, there wasn't a lot of wind (good enough for a blizzard, but not 78 or Boxing Day kind of wind to mess up snowfall totals or snow growth) or any mixing or changeover to mess them up and the snow even ended right at the time they're supposed to measure!

Thats right the NAM's winning streak began that winter!

Thanks RJ! Do you have the historic NWS message on Christmas in 2010 when they said they thought the GFS was having feedback issues but they'd give it one more run before jumping on its snowier solution? My favorite AFD since January 1996!

read my mind lol

Do you have the forecast for the Jan 2016 storm and then the final totals? That HECS was the antidote to the Jan 2015 "HECS" like the 2002-03 winter was the antidote to the 2001-02 "winter" lol.

Thanks! I just saw this and wow we were just talking about this storm. My verbal memory of the storm you posted about is that it came in two parts and we compared it to the Dec 2003 storm mid event. The first part dropped like 4-6 inches in the morning and we had a lull with a slight warm up in the afternoon and a change to drizzle and in the early evening the precip picked back up and changed from heavy rain to heavy sleet quickly and there was even a tornado or funnel cloud with hail reported just off the south shore and then it changed to heavy snow and the real fun began with 5-6 inch per hour heavy rates! Who said we cant get a big snowstorm in a la nina? WE HAD THREE BIG ONES THAT YEAR! That and 1995-96 were my two favorite la nina winters ever.

Might happen again next Friday

January 19 2019 We'll probably get a similar storm to what we had in November (6" or so) in December and that will make that month above normal snowfall, but that will be it for that month.

Wow this is a very late complaint but that is a huge undermeasurement if they expect to also represent the Five Towns area. We had at least 6 inches of heavy snow and it was really hard to shovel the next morning even though it was fluffy. Parts of Long Island had close to a foot. Temps definitely weren't an issue as it stuck to the roads right from the beginning- including on Broadway, where I happened to live. Temps were in the 20s the whole time. Nov 1995 was also a bit of an undermeasurement that was closer to 4" here. No wonder JFK was the only local area reporting site not to hit 70" that winter! JFK has data going back to 1949? I think they were Idlewild back then but I didn't know international airports existed around here back in the 40s lol. Did they measure snowfall going back to the historic 1947-48 winter, Chris?

Wow JFK's Nov 2018 is already #1 for snowfall? What happened to Nov 1989- I thought JFK got 6 inches of snow the night before Thanksgiving.

he's a bored denier lol. Honestly, who cares what was going in a different epoch? The causes and rate of warming are far different (and higher) now than they were back then. It has about as much relevance as dinosaurs living when the whole planet was tropical. How about we are in the middle of the greatest mass extinction in the history of the planet and it's humanity-induced? Because of human overpopulation, pollution and manipulation of the environment. That's far more relevant.

CO2 plus methane and pollution, all of which humans are contributing to. Time to thin the herd.

That August 2011 8" of rain at JFK is very memorable- and it came a month after we hit 104 degrees and 108 degrees at Newark! In August 2011 we also had to deal with the rains of Irene and a 5.8 earthquake! Chris, a storm that just missed this list though it comes close is the January 2016 Blizzard which was a 3" liquid equivalent (31" of snow) at JFK! That May 1, 2014 event is also memorable for all the flooding we had with widespread 5" rainfall totals (mostly at night)! Interesting I had forgotten that in March 2010 we actually had two big rainfall events, like we did in August 2011.

Yes it looks like major tornado damage down there, it's about as bad as a hurricane can ever get. I was glad to hear that we didn't lose more people.

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/10/17/nyc-area-forecast-freeze-watches-issued-coldest-air-season-arrives/

I like that we have an el nino, it usually forces more suppressed tracks that are good for us, most of our biggest snowstorms have occurred during an el nino. It might get off to a rocky start but I have confidence in the second half of winter at least. Meanwhile I'm glad October actually feels like fall- I wasn't taking seriously the idea of a torch October. It's the fall month historically least likely to torch and we should see our first frost this weekend.

The Euro for next February has consistently looked amazing....let's hope it doesn't end up like 2006-07 and we get a bunch of ice/sleet events!

This will be upgraded to Cat 5 post analysis just like Andrew was, everything was leveled down there.

2016 was pretty low too. This year's is later than any of them though like you said.

According to that the sea ice extent has been increasingly slightly in the last few days- so the minimum likely wont be in early October? Is this still the latest we've ever seen the minimum, Chris?

Chris, we've been setting records like this in different parts of the world's oceans for a few years now. What year had our latest sea ice minimum and does it look like we could break that record this year (with a sea ice minimum as late as October for the first time ever?)

I agree, some people need to look up their definitions of what a noreaster is and when it can occur. We've had some in the summer also. Nor'easters are most often associated with strong winter storms crawling up the Northeast coast, but snow isn't a requirement for such a storm. These storms are most frequent and strongest between September and April, but can occur any time of the year.Mar 1, 2018 What is a Nor'easter?

Noreaster season should be considered as lasting through April as we have gotten some rather big ones in April (some rain some snow.) Tax Day noreaster in 2007 was one of the biggest on record, not to mention April 1982, 1983, 1996, 1997, 2003, etc.

More 75+ dew points and heat indices of 90+ could easily be in the cards though.