LibertyBell

Wow Newark is quite a bit warmer than the rest of the region. I cant find a stretch of 7 70+ days anytime in recorded history either for Central Park or Philadelphia despite a much longer period of recorded history. The max at those two sites is 5 straight days. The 7 day 70+ stretch at the end of November in 1989 must've been amazing, since we had a significant snowstorm on Thanksgiving in 1989 and then a historically cold and dry December! I actually dont remember that warm period at all, all I remember is a historic and tragic severe weather outbreak in November 1989 and then the Thanksgiving snowstorm and the extremely cold and dry December (as well as a blown snowstorm prediction and the big warm up around New Years 1990 and then warmth for the rest of the season including summer-like mid 80s in March.)

thats disappointing. I think I saw the high for the day before which was listed at 73 and assumed that was for yesterday

Thanks! It looks like they hit 73 yesterday. I had to get used to the format, as the most recent readings are listed at the top lol. Something else I noticed, a lot of the records for yesterday are from 1999 and that's one of the analogs for the upcoming winter.

Yes the last one was in November 2001 and it was unforgettable. I thought they recurred every 33 years but looking at the historical record there have been unpredictable outbursts that occur outside of the 33 year cycle. The amazing weather is a good point too, it isn't just warm, it's been warm during the day and cold at night because of the exceptionally dry air; these are ideal desert-like viewing conditions! I even saw the thin waning crescent moon yesterday at high noon. I dont think I've ever seen it at that time before. Of course the prime time celestial viewing weather is now coming to an end. Did you see Mars the last few nights? It looks exceptionally bright probably because it is closer than it will be for a few decades. This is my favorite time of year for clear skies, M42 Orion Nebula is clearly visible, even visually and I imagine it's an amazing sight in 10x50 or larger binos. M31 Andromeda Galaxy should look amazing too.

Yes, I've seen them reported from Alabama to New Jersey to Quebec to Sweden! Bright fireballs and the Alabama one was called an asteroid by NASA. The one in NJ was a low flying meteoroid and the one in Sweden made it to around 15 km before disintegrating! What's going on? All unrelated to each other and not part of some outburst?

Don I noted you didn't list JFK above, did they not hit 70 yesterday? I thought they did.

Maybe we could get 1-2" with this first event and then another 1-2" Sunday into Monday?

Yes, the most extreme winter I can remember, got close to -30 in NE PA. Lots of snow and ice, we had an astounding 2 inch plus ice storm on the south shore of Long Island in January. And snow both on top of that and under it. I got to tell the difference between the different colors of snow (white), sleet (grey), and freezing rain (clear). And you needed an ice pick to break though otherwise you'd be skating down your driveway.

The city's supply of salt ran out! That was a marathon winter with two storms every week and 30 storms in total. If the weather channel had been naming storms back then not only would they have run out of names, they would have run out of the Greek alphabet too and the Hebrew alphabet would be up next! That was Allentown's winter of record also, they had around 80" of snow.

The heavy snow was in eastern PA and points east, I saw Scranton had about a foot and half of snow during that storm.

I remember both. Long Island in Suffolk County Islip got 12" from the first one and I remember the second one a week later dropped an inch at JFK

reminds me of 07-08 when we had an SWFE deliver a surprise 6" in late February. question about analogs....why cant 05-06 be an analog for this winter? The extremely active 2005 hurricane season (we are quickly catching up in number of hurricanes and I think we'll have 15 again this season especially with the 90 degree Caribbean.) Also the previous year, 04-05 was an el nino like last year was and 05-06 was a la nina like this one is. So you could have a cold first half of December with an inland to near NYC snow event, a mild mid to late December followed by a mild January and then get a February with one freak snowstorm and then we'll see how March turns out (in 06 March was cold but not much snow) and then we ended it in early April with another freak snow event to get us to 40"

1993-94 and 1995-96 made up for it, especially the latter one. Then another snow drought before the epic era started in earnest from 2002-03 onwards.

when I was growing up we had an awful snowless period between 79 and 93 with the exception of Feb 1983

I dont think climate deniers are actually climate deniers (at least the majority of them), they actually either dont care or believe that a warming planet is a good thing or they think its too late to do anything about it so might as well just let it keep going.

what about 2001-02?

and having a hurricane season that lasts all year, like what the fire season is evolving into the word "season" will have an entirely different meaning within our lifetimes

some would say all this heat is a good thing, saving on heating costs and we can do a lot of work outside

What is the time line for the second event, Walt? Is that from the remnants of another tropical system? I see there are two more TC possibilities on the board now.

That sounds pretty fair and reasonable. I guess I'm complaining because there are so many of them. If there were only 3-4 then there wouldn't be so much confusion and information overload. Anything over half a dozen seems to be too much to me to be of much use and the laws of diminishing returns step in.

Walt looks like a widespread 2-4 inches everywhere from NE PA to Long Island? In your latest map I see a spot of 5"+ right in NE PA.

Yeah you know I dont expect it either, that was a one in 50 year pattern, just pointing out that we have had nice winters with most of December being a shut out until the final week.

what caused the very warm north Pacific?

I wonder if Long Island has ever experienced a high of 80 or above and a low of 32 or below.

to be fair even if we dont experience a turn around until the last week of December a la 2010, it'll be okay.