LibertyBell

Well, I guess we can say it will be snowing in the places where it's supposed to be snowing lol. People have to come to the realization that the east coast doesn't usually get that much snow unless you're up in New England.

Looks like all the rain dries up in Central PA and Upstate NY before it ever makes it here.

a general theme we see with these kinds of winters is usually a cold start to the season (November-mid December) a big thaw around Christmas to New Years and a generally mild January and February and then a cold and possibly snowy end to the season in March into early April.

it's actually completely overcast here in the Poconos, will be getting back into town this afternoon

going to be our 10th hurricane. Second system down near Central America chances of developing now getting less?

1993 is a classic example....the classic couplet for snowy winters here is cold October mild November

This whole escapade reminds me of the big banks and the "too big to fail" fiasco- and please just ignore our predatory lending practices. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo is back at it and they've now been caught misrepresenting themselves to steal small business covid response payments and had to fire 125 employees. https://www.cfo.com/fraud/2020/10/wells-fargo-fires-over-100-employees-for-alleged-covid-19-relief-fraud/ Nevermind all the big banks found to be laundering money for criminals who were propping up extremist regimes.

As soon as that happens, real reform will begin.

Right now they are too busy harassing good people on Twitter and putting their social media people on some sort of a "justification" spree for all their bad behavior on an ExxonKnew hashtag and claiming they are doing something to stop climate change.

Yeah and once we get past tonight we may not have a frost or freeze until November

is that the trough that may drive that hybrid noreaster-TC up the coast?

Maybe not. I'm in the Poconos right now and there was a big frost here last night but nothing died. I think you need it to get to 28 or lower for a few hours to have a killing freeze unless you're talking about really sensitive plants like tomatoes.

Yup 1955-56 was the primary analog used for 2017-18. That was one extreme turnaround in March too. I wonder why that analog isn't being used more this year?

I like 2012 too, actually 1973, 2007 and 2012 but I'm very cautious about using 70s analogs here, we get a lot more precip on the east coast than we used to back then. I noticed 1973, 1988 and 1999 mentioned in an earlier post by you (on this page), I think you stated that you didn't like 1999 though but 1988 was on there. 2012 might be the best match of all, but as you'll notice in the climate subforum, sea ice was on a rapid rise at this point in 2012, and we're really lagging behind in 2020. I'd give a slight nod to 2007 over the other years that were mentioned.

didn't we switch back to a cold and snowy March after the 80 in February though?

Going with a combo of 1973-74 and 2007-08, what kind of a winter would that yield? Have to be careful about 70s winters as that was an era with much less overall precip than what we have now.

yes, this is something I noticed a few years ago, but the relationship was stronger before the 1995-96 winter.

this storm at the end of the month, the models have been waffling back and forth on it, do you see it more like 1991 or 2012? I see your list of analogs had 1973, 1988, 1999 and 2007 in it, and none of those had a large storm at the end of the month. Personally I'd throw out 1988 and 1999 as they are 11 yr peak solar cycle years, and go with 1973 and 2007.

Lots of stuff here

SST temp above normal is good for bombing storms, if we get that then those storms can drag down colder air as they bomb out. I've seen plenty of years with cold SST that turned into dud winters (a la 89-90)

2 out of 3 aint bad..... 1995-96 and 2010-11 vs 2007-08 wait I thought you meant la ninas after el ninos lol those seem to be somewhat better than el ninos after la ninas

better than 1972-73 at any rate lol- la ninas after el ninos seem to be pretty good....whats the story on el ninos that follow la ninas, are they also good?

did you see this Chris?