LibertyBell

everything is bigger this summer, the plants look bigger, the leaves look more lush, even the bugs look bigger and more common, this Texas/Florida combo pattern is not one that I like.

Finally we did it today! Number 40! https://classic.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-jfk/KJFK/date/2018-9-12 I dont know how to figure out heat index, Chris, did we get more hours of 90+ heat index? it's 79 degrees right now with a 76 dew point at JFK.

Chris, did JFK reach their 40th 75+ dew point day today? Dont know if it'll be enough to get us to 90+ heat index numbers again this year though

Wow almost 34 ft near Southern Queens, I wonder why it's less in Southern Nassau? Was this from a track modeled into Sandy Hook of a 145 mph hurricane? It would be interesting to see the same track modeled with different intensity hurricanes from 1-4. Also with the new climate regime of stalling hurricanes I wonder how much worse it would be to have a Cat 3/4 stall right along the coast, similar to what the Dec 1992 noreaster or the Ash Wednesday 1962 storm or what Harvey did or what Florence might do.

Wow 25 feet at Atlantic City rivals Katrina. Hailstorm's modeling showed a worst case scenario delivering a 33 foot storm surge to Southern Queens which would exceed Katrina by a few feet. With all these stalling hurricanes we've had recently due to anomalous blocking I wonder if we might need to revise our idea of a worst case scenario- what if a powerful Cat 3/4 came close to landfall in Central NJ and just stalled there, a la Dec 1992 noreaster or Ash Wednesday 1962 storm or Harvey or what Florence might do? It would slowly weaken but the surge and wind over many high tide cycles would be truly catastrophic and the feet of rainfall!

Well we had some hot days in May.... the biggest change was from April to May

I hate the idea of having the "day" start at midnight or 1 am when we have DST- records should be kept from sunrise of one day to sunrise the next day.

Wow thanks for this- what track did you model for this- into Sandy Hook? And was the max wind speed modeled 145? It would be interesting to model the same track four different times, one with each category. edit- this was for Hailstorm sorry

Thanks and I was wondering about that too if it was a megatsunami that could even be from a meteorite hitting our coastal waters. We need a really fast moving storm to curve into the coast around the Atlantic Highlands in late August or September timed with the highest tides of the month (maybe around the equinox when the highest tides of the year are supposed to be- thats around when 1938 came in) in a really hot/humid summer with above normal rainfall prior to the storm to get the kind of high end storm worst case scenario we're talking about, not that we ever want to see something like that in our lifetimes. A trillion dollar disaster with probably even more lives lost than 911 A truly sobering thought on this day.

Is this why the surge with Katrina was much higher than its category? Also hurricanes that were Cat 5 once still maintain that surge for awhile even when they start to weaken

You're right and so is LBSF about the track, it was calculated that our worst case scenario would be a hurricane tracking into Monmouth County, and the maximum possible wind speed that those waters can support was calculated to be 145 mph. A cat 4 may have reached our latitude and hit eastern New England when the Colonial Hurricane happened back in the 1600s, that one was said to be stronger than the 1938 hurricane. NYC may also have been hit by a Cat 4 back in pre Columbian times. That 1821 Hurricane really intrigues me and how was it able to maintain its strength with a track so close to the coast.

it's that humid subtropical climate we're all used to this weather now.

Chris what was the reason we didn't get a true baking summer this year though even though the WAR was so strong? Was it because of the developing el nino? Next summer might be hotter than this one- summers after el ninos historically are.

Chris what was the record for JFK? We were at 58 here this morning.

JFK is going to reach and exceed the 40 day 75+ dew point mark and go over 200 hours in 90+ heat indices. Let's see how close we get to 1983.

More 75+ dew points and heat indices of 90+ could easily be in the cards though.

It'll be funny if this is how the pattern for the winter sets up too a la 2009-10 thanks to the El Nino. Those were the same areas that got jackpotted that winter.

Instead of a drug with serious side effects he should consider a UV lamp lol- seems like SAD has set in early.

Don, was that 1903 NJ Hurricane the one that took a track similar to Sandy and curved into the coast near Atlantic City? I remember reading about a storm that took such a track in the early 1900s in the New Jersey Hurricane Book.

I think there was a storm in the early 1900s that took a track very similar to Sandy and went right into the Atlantic City area- it might have been that 1903 one that Don mentioned. I dont think Sandy was a worst case scenario for us though, I mean it was about 80% of the way there and the timing with the high tides was definitely worst case for the south shore, but if it had tracked about 50 miles further north before curving into the coast that would have been worst case. A stronger version of the 1893 hurricane would have been a worse storm for us specifically. I also wonder about that Norfolk and Long Island hurricane, that one was unusually strong for a long range coastal hugger, must have been an amazing storm.

They always do eventually, but there may not be much left of it at that point. Saturday's my birthday so I'm hoping not to have a rain out lol.

Tony, so even after Florence is gone we could still have some high heat days (90+ or at least heat indices of 90+) in the second half of the month?!

Yes the 5.8 earthquake (the only one I've ever felt) and in August 2011 we had record daily rainfall and that was before Irene! 11/7/2012 was my earliest ever heavy snowstorm and 10/28/2011 was my earliest snowstorm of any accumulation.

December 2009 through October 2012 was pretty good too, big snowstorms, historic heatwaves, hurricanes, and went below zero in February too.

Allentown and JFK had three great 20"+ snowstorms in common (one of them a 30"+ snowstorm), Feb 1983, PD2 and Jan 2016. All of them occurred in moderate or stronger el ninos. They featured the kind of pattern you need for a widespread historic snowstorm for our area (though the fringe line wasn't too far too our north with the last one- which is also a feature of el ninos of that magnitude.)