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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    Do you think Phoenix can have half their days reach 100 degrees this year, Don? They have to get to 183. What's the latest they've hit it?
  2. LibertyBell
    This is worse than 2012 was.
  3. LibertyBell
    Some illuminating posts from Climate Ben about climate change and the perils of industrial agriculture and the role it plays in the current mass extinction: https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1287482989639880706 https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1317414094010486788
  4. LibertyBell
    from reading a list of possible analogs in the main forum's enso state thread, 2007-08 was a big analog being used. On the positive side, they also mentioned an increasing possibility of an el nino after this winter, and this might be the last of the la nina winters for awhile.
  5. LibertyBell
    I dont get why all these people in Minnesota are so excited about snow....it's supposed to snow there. Dont have a coronary because you got 5 inches of snow, that's ho-hum and you should expect it.
  6. LibertyBell
    Probably more snow than last winter but still way below normal. I predict an average winter temp around 38.5 with less than 20 inches of total snowfall, probably more like between 10-15.
  7. LibertyBell
    I think we need a category above the relatively tame "warmer than average" If a season is +3 or more compared to the 30 year average it should be called a historic torch. Also I wouldn't use a 30 year average as that moves, we should use the whole period (or at least 1950 onwards) to compare it against what our climate "used to be."
  8. LibertyBell
    this does seem like one of those winter events.....the back end always does better over Suffolk county in those lol
  9. LibertyBell
    Better than 33 and rain though ;-)
  10. LibertyBell
    Thanks for the 2005 list, Walt! I didn't remember the unnamed storm...that year was so wild that we had tropical activity right to the end of December!
  11. LibertyBell
    Thanks! Final totals around 1.5, Don?
  12. LibertyBell
    you actually want warmer than normal SST to get storms bombing out more quickly, when they bomb out they drag down colder air from the continent.
  13. LibertyBell
    fixed in the para GFS check it out
  14. LibertyBell
    I've been thinking this could be the year for awhile, similarities to 2012 with low arctic sea ice, etc.
  15. LibertyBell
    Pumping up the ridge for the second TC, Walt?
  16. LibertyBell
    Euro looks like it's also moving to a two TC scenario so it may be playing catch up here. GFS has had it like this for awhile.
  17. LibertyBell
    You also have to look at the lack of arctic ice in 2012 and the comparison to this year.
  18. LibertyBell
    Yep, that was my thought also and the reason the Euro is playing catch up is that it hand't developed the Bermuda storm as strongly.
  19. LibertyBell
    Walt, could you look into 2005? Some sources have listed it as having 27 TS, others 28? Which is correct? Since there are 21 letters of the English alphabet used and the last storm that year was Zeta (6th letter of the Greek alphabet) wouldn't that mean there were 27 TS that year not 28?
  20. LibertyBell
    less rain both to the east and west Don? How much at JFK?
  21. LibertyBell
    if this is "just missing the phase" what would full phasing look like? this looks pretty exciting as is
  22. LibertyBell
    GFS has this plowing into CC at 950 mb, the Euro should be interesting tonight.
  23. LibertyBell
    they were reading our posts ;-)
  24. LibertyBell
    The comparison to 12-13 with Sandy that year is a good catch too, latest GFS shows a track to Cape Cod at 950mb, but Euro Ensembles favor a more offshore track (maybe a la Matthew?)
  25. LibertyBell
    2007-08 and 2016-17 were very different here, the latter was a really good backloaded winter with heavy snow in March and April. 2007-08 was pretty much a noshow winter here outside of one 6-8 inch event in February (a SWFE that didn't changeover.)
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