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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    I'm not sure anyone knows. I'm of the same inclination as you are, that we get much better chances in January and February. That's partly based on climo and partly based on this particular block breaking down and a better one emerging later in the season. Sometimes you have to completely break something down to get something better.
  2. LibertyBell
    I have a little fly in the logic ;-) What if this IS the pattern haha?
  3. LibertyBell
    Interesting-- is that good or bad? Normally when you get the coldest temperatures over us the storm track is too suppressed.
  4. LibertyBell
    I bet there is a Mt Pocono like elevaton around there where someone averages 70 inches lol. Maybe up near Monticello? That's right near the edge of our subforum.
  5. LibertyBell
    Better safe than sorry. Even in the city there was a major accident on the Major Deegan.
  6. LibertyBell
    Those are some fascinating gradients. I wonder if there's any kind of storm where everyone does well with snowfall?
  7. LibertyBell
    Thanks I know I remembered 65 inches from somewhere lol
  8. LibertyBell
    Yeah he could be into the other kind of "snow" after all-- that'd be a lot worse lol
  9. LibertyBell
    After that storm we are getting into a much colder pattern correct? So perhaps the way we get snow this season is to forget about coastals and count more on the regular west to east tracking storms and clippers that are quick enough that they don't interact with warm Atlantic waters and drop a quick 2-4" and sometimes even 4-6"? Back in the 80s and early 90s those were our primary time of snowfall event. Those kinds of storms don't have to deal with the SE ridge or warm pools in the Atlantic.
  10. LibertyBell
    Is this warm pool and "south" based blocking which had never happened before a few years ago (at least I had never heard it mentioned by anyone) here to stay permanently, Chris? If it's a feature of climate change, it may be a permanent feature?
  11. LibertyBell
    But you're giving up on winter if it doesn't work out lol. Numbers show that you should wait another month at least. If we don't get a 6"+ snowstorm by the end of January then worry.
  12. LibertyBell
    Yeah we usually get our first significant snowfall around Jan 20th now. It's usually between January 20 - March 20 for our significant snowfall interval so a good two month period. Not the minor 1-3 kind of stuff that can happen basically anytime between November and April.
  13. LibertyBell
    Chris, how many more chances will we get before blocking breaks down?
  14. LibertyBell
    with this blocking that would be historic
  15. LibertyBell
    Be glad you weren't around between 1984 and 1993 lol basically every storm was just like that.
  16. LibertyBell
    So this is an issue of poor spacing with the highs? That's unfortunate, since the Pacific often gets mentioned as the main factor, but even when it's good, then this happens. This does remind me of the 80s-early 90s pattern when storms like this were very frequent. We even considered this the "normal" pattern back then.
  17. LibertyBell
    Yes, this could be the very unusual Carolinas to Maine snowstorm, haven't seen anything like this in years if it plays out to maximum potential.
  18. LibertyBell
    That's actually what you want to see right now.
  19. LibertyBell
    Yeah I was going to say it's somewhere around 65, but 60 also looks reasonable. I don't like 30 year "averages" at any rate, the entire climate history should be used.
  20. LibertyBell
    They should use the entire climate period instead of some small 30 year snapshot. I've always had that issue with these 30 year "averages" I think it's closer to a 65 inch average for Albany
  21. LibertyBell
    Albany averages 65" of snow per season I think?
  22. LibertyBell
    So basically west of the Poconos sucked for snow and east of NW NJ and the Hudson river also sucked for snow in this storm? That's a very narrow area that got good snows from this.
  23. LibertyBell
    The 12z has saner snowfall amounts lol, looks like less than a foot everywhere (but still decent 6-10 inches)
  24. LibertyBell
    We want this to be weaker correct? The weaker it is the less apt it would be to track inland.
  25. LibertyBell
    It does say 0z run at the top, whoops
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