LibertyBell

No thank you, I'd rather get the record lol

I believe it's much more the decadal cycle of the PDO rather than la nina because we all know of a few la ninas that were extremely snowy. 95-96, 10-11, and even 20-21. If you go through the list of the least snowiest winters, very few of the bottom 10 were la ninas....probably more el ninos than la ninas in there...as I stated in the above post, enso state only has a 20% impact on our weather.

But other la ninas weren't this pitiful in terms of snow and some of them are VERY snowy. If you go through our 10 least snowy winters how many of them were la nina vs el nino? I can tell you right now the two that come to mind right away were both el ninos (72-73 and 97-98) and one was neutral (01-02). Truthfully, enso state only has a 20% impact on our weather.

No nothing can really overwhelm the pattern unless it's extremely strong....(you see this in very strong la ninas and very strong el ninos), which is why you see both snowy la ninas and not snowy la ninas, and snowy el ninos and not snowy el ninos. Everything needs to be factored in.

This is a good idea not to rely on any solution until within 5 days, beyond 5 days none of them are very reliable.

How though... if the GFS had a cutter for this storm 7 days out, did it switch to a snowy Boston solution after that? Looking at TWC it's actually snowing there right now, but it's a slushy kind of snow.

Yep so it's not one thing that starts it all but really everything working together. I see Indian Ocean conditions often mentioned as a precursor to whether there will be a la nina or an el nino so maybe something in the IO triggers it. It makes more sense that way on a round planet. Now if the earth were flat it would be a different story lol.

I dont believe it's any one thing, I believe everything works together in synchronicity. It makes sense because that's how nature works in general. The Pacific is influenced by the Indian Ocean which is influenced by what is west of it, etc. Since we are on a globe, everything is both cause and effect.

No it had rain for us like a week ago. I don't know what it had for Boston, I just know it had a cutter for us back then.

1960: Eastern Massachusetts' most significant March snowstorm occurred on March 4-5th, 1960. The storm produced record 24-hour snowfall totals 27.2 inches at Blue Hill Observatory, 17.7 inches at Worcester, and 16.6 inches at Boston. Winds gusted to 70 mph. ^ I wish I was alive to see this one! also, wow how come such a large surge? because of the shape of the coastline there or the shallow waters? 1899: Cyclone Mahina, aka "The Bathurst Bay Hurricane" in Australia, was credited with producing the highest storm surge on record worldwide. The cyclone, with an estimated central pressure of 911 millibars or 26.90 inches of mercury, caused a 42.6-foot surge when it came ashore on the coast of northern Australia. The storm killed as many as 400 people and is Australia's deadliest cyclone. this one is funny 1841: President William Henry Harrison was sworn into office on a cloudy, cold, and blustery day. His speech lasted one hour and 40 minutes, and he rode a horse to and from the Capitol without a hat or overcoat. Unfortunately, he died from pneumonia a month later, or did he? do we not know if he died at that time or not?

I think people are worried because the GFS was right about last night's storm.

No I think they all affect each other. The larger something is the more of an effect it would have.

I would think it would be cooler here because of that darned ocean I hate so much lol

Underwater why? There wasn't that much rain-- was there?

Oh it's what I see on my TWC LR forecast...it's sunny pretty much every day from Sunday to next Friday, aside from Tuesday.

But something has to start it doesn't it? The world is round and as a globe, in a sense the SER is west of the Pacific lol. So what came first, the chicken or the egg? Or do they just create each other? There really is no downstream when it comes to climate because with a round globe, it's all circular.

I dont want that stupid SER in the summer because it makes summers more humid but not as hot. I want it further south near NC because that gives us a nice hot and dry summer with 100 degree temps in July. Thats a good latitude for the winter too which is probably why we see so many of our best snowy winters come after hot and dry 100 degree summers. Also the whole la nina after el nino thing promotes both hot and dry summers and snowy winters.

on the plus side a really nice week of weather coming up, sunny and 50s?

It does seem to be good for tropical threats. Here's the thing though...why do storms always seem to correct further north and west? Even in very strong el ninos-- like January 2016? It's been a thing ever since 2002-03. Hell it even happened in February 1983, February 1994 and January 1996 and PD2 2003 lol.

This looks like a very nice week of weather coming up, Don, finally a break from the yucky weather.

Just what the doctor ordered-- some consistency between 0z and 12z Euro runs lol. I mentioned this in my previous post before I even saw yours lol.

and that it's 0z makes me feel a little better. I try to just pay attention to 0z and 12z runs...you're better off that way too lol In real winters when there were storm possibilities this place would get packed for those two sets of runs.

What do you think the chances are that NYC and JFK stay below the record lowest seasonal snowfall record? I say it's 50/50

Was that snow or rain by JFK, it's hard to tell? Was this a triple phaser? And if I'm reading the map correctly, the light blue is for areas that got 10"+ and the deeper blue is for areas that received 20"+? If so SW Nassau was right at the 10" mark because it's right near the edge of the lighter blue. It's actually similar to the late February 2010 snowicane.

If simulated snow is the only snow we will get, might as well enjoy it lol