Jump to content

LibertyBell

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    39,756

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    I like that we use only 0z and 12z model runs for this and the amounts seem to be going up, slightly.... I like a forecast of 2-3 for now.
  2. LibertyBell
    I think we should be happy if we get 2-3 from this storm. 3-5 is still possible but unlikely near the coast. I just don't understand the forecasts saying zero accumulation for the coast.
  3. LibertyBell
    Is the real issue not having enough - NAO blocking? I noticed that even when the AO is negative, the NAO doesn't seem to turn negative anymore.
  4. LibertyBell
    What the lack of blocking does is keep the rain/snow line close, which is why there were so many mixing events in 1993-94 and a few in 2013-14 too.
  5. LibertyBell
    1965-66 one snowstorm winter (and we were on the edge of that snowstorm, look at snowfall totals for DC and Norfolk, VA lol) 1987-88 one snowstorm winter, it was one of the best snowstorms between 1983 and 1993, we barely missed getting into double digits with a 9 plus inch snowstorm in January, it was the second consecutive year we got a 9 plus inch snowstorm in January (January 1987 was the other one.) The next time we received a 9 inch snowstorm was in the 1990-91 winter (the famous 36 hour wet snowstorm in February) we discussed before, which also had two 5 plus inch events.
  6. LibertyBell
    The middle three years were really awful, the first year wasn't that good either, it was just one storm, and we were on the edge of it lol. Look up the snowfall totals of 1965-66 for DC and Norfolk, Virgina. And that was a strong el nino and has been used as an analog for this season. The following year we were at cold neutral close to weak la nina and look how great 1966-67 was for snowfall. So maybe next season we'll finally get a good season. I'm not expecting 1995-96 or 2010-11 type la nina after el nino, but hopefully we'll get closer to average snowfall next season.
  7. LibertyBell
    And there are some years when we had zero blocking but still had a great deal of snow and very cold temperatures, 1993-94 being a case in point.
  8. LibertyBell
    Don is it possible the rapidly strengthening storm will bring down even colder air? The weather channel mentioned the storm will get down to 950 mb (!) and will stall out, but that's when it's near Nova Scotia. Still this storm is going make major headlines next week.
  9. LibertyBell
    I think the clouds moved in too quickly, and low clouds at that. I saw obs further east and it's still mostly clear in Suffolk County but there's a low overcast here.
  10. LibertyBell
    I'd be shocked if we at the high end got more than a couple inches, but none of the official forecasts have even that much for us right now. The only ones who are talking about significant accumulations near the coast is the weather channel, and it looks like they're going by the straight model runs lol. For example, my local weather channel forecast has snow (no mix, just snow) all day Tuesday with a high of 40 after a low of 34 Tuesday morning.
  11. LibertyBell
    The storm that immediately comes to mind when we had a nice snowfall with temps just above freezing was April 2, 2018. That was much later in the season, but our weather had been cold for weeks before that storm-- still it's strange to say early April was more favorable for snow than early February lol.
  12. LibertyBell
    It was a bit weird though, the colors in the sky were best well before sunrise and then now they've faded into grey even though the sun hasn't completely risen yet. Usually the best colors happen right at sunrise or a little after.
  13. LibertyBell
    Yes it's the best!
  14. LibertyBell
    We have had had nice snowfalls before though with temps just above freezing. April 2, 2018 is a good example that we were talking about before, NYC had close to 6" of snow and the temperature never got below 33 F.
  15. LibertyBell
    Nooo, it's that they wouldn't be multiple posts if they happened during the day (or at any normal time) because there would be a lot of other people posting in between.
  16. LibertyBell
    What this shows is that the risk of suppression is actually more than the chances that the storm will be mostly rain. This storm could still move a little more north (like 50 miles) and still hit us hard with snow.
  17. LibertyBell
    Certainly by the ensembles too, it looks like the entire area could get a nice snowstorm out of this with not much rain at all.
  18. LibertyBell
    I can't remember the last time the entire area, north to south, west to east, saw a foot of snow lol.
  19. LibertyBell
    If anything the euro is trending to the gfs
  20. LibertyBell
    Interesting comparison here-- the GFS has one foot plus of snow south of NYC and on eastern Long Island and the Euro has one foot plus of snow north of NYC (but not by much.) They both have around the same amount of snow for NYC but the GFS has more for Long Island especially the south shore and east end. As a matter of fact, the GFS has a foot plus for eastern Long Island, even more than it does for south NJ. Euro has zilch for south NJ lol. They also have similar amounts of snow west of NYC into the Poconos but the GFS has much less snow north of NYC.
  21. LibertyBell
    this is wild, look at that gradient between the north shore and south shore of Long Island lol. edit-- it looks like the largest gradient is south of Long Island as even the south shore gets at least 4 inches on this model run. Poconos to NW NJ will do well of course. That 10-12 inches in coastal CT is a little unexpected though, it's even more than what it shows for NW areas. There is such a fine line of 10 miles or so between heavy snow and rain that there's no way to know which way this will go.
  22. LibertyBell
    I guess we'll know about the Euro soon
  23. LibertyBell
    That's interesting you mentioned Bear Creek, there must be at least 3 Bear Creeks in eastern PA, there's one up in Carbon County too, near Jim Thorpe, as well as another one further NE from there. The one in Carbon County is close to Camelback ski resort and up around 2200 ft. How high up is the one in Macungie?
  24. LibertyBell
    South Mountain Range.... is this anywhere near Lehighton?
  25. LibertyBell
    The outcome with this storm will likely control the outcome of that one. Here's something I've always wondered about and it applies here. The GFS was the first to pick up the Boxing Day Blizzard in December 2010 too. If it had been wrong with that one, would the snowy pattern that followed have happened?
×
×
  • Create New...