LibertyBell

April 1996? It was amazing out in Suffolk County! Pretty good here too, but somehow Manhattan and LaGuardia got under an inch even though JFK had 4-5 lol

Right these atmospheric rivers into California are way more common in an el nino, which is why all those records from 1982-83 are being broken. The PNA being so horrible is separate from the la nina isn't it? Isn't that part of some multidecade cycle?

1995-96 had a three week really bad period in the middle of winter where we were mild and raining and even severe weather with temps in the mid and upper 60s. It was amazing to go back to cold and snow after that but I guess that reload was needed. I'm not sure if we can ever have a true 12-13 week full winter of snow and cold, there has to be a pattern relaxation and reload at some point.

December was also like an el nino..... la nina Decembers are usually a lot snowier here. This winter was so bad because the first half was like an el nino (Dec to mid Jan) and the second half was like a la nina (mid Jan to Feb). el ninos are usually backloaded and la ninas are usually front loaded in winter so we got the worst parts of both an el nino and a la nina.

But still has the extreme rainfall into California, which is why this year broke records from 1982-83. But isn't a la nina supposed to be dry in California? I remember previous la nina years were so dry in California that they had forest fires.....in winter!

a deep trough over California is an el nino look though.

But we had this discussion before about the -PNA getting to less negative than -1 helping out. All that rain in California is actually more like an el nino, if it were like a la nina the trough would be crashing into the Pac NW. When this happened in December and January do you remember we said that all this rain and snow in California was more like a strong el nino and the records for rainfall being broken were from 1982-83?

Yep, hence the 6-8 inches of snow on the Jersey Shore (same thing happened in April 1996 but at least JFK and western Nassau county got 4-5 inches in that one). The 6-12 inch prediction for the city in April 1996 was a bust though and an even bigger bust was the 8-16 inch prediction for the city in April 1997.

Being after our greatest winter made it less annoying than most. The prediction was for 8-16 inches of snow lol We got 1-2 and closer to 1. More snow south of us on the Jersey Shore (6-8) and a lot more snow north and northeast of us. Sort of the same thing happened in April 1996 but we got 4-5 inches here and the dryslot was over the city, while south of us on the Jersey Coast got 6-8 inches and in Suffolk County it was 12-16 inches with blizzard conditions all the way to the Hamptons.

what caused us to bust in Fools Day 1997? also a late capture from a flat ridge?

what do you think of a combo analog of Fools Day 1997 and March 2001 for this storm? Further NW of course

Sounds more like a further NW Fools Day 1997 rather than March 2001. Or maybe a combo of those 2 storms.

More likely Tuesday than Monday? Since this seems to be a rain to snow scenario.

I'm mostly referring to ones like March 1956 and March 2018 and April of both years though. It is much more about that persistent and extreme west coast trough. This la nina would have had a March 2018 result if it weren't for that trough being so extreme. That extreme west coast trough wasn't caused by the la nina either, because la ninas don't produce all that rain and snow in California.

I guess that's why el ninos or la ninas that happen after el ninos are better for that sort of thing. If I remember correctly, we had the same thing on February 2, 2021, but the storm was a hugger so the highest snowfall amounts were near Binghamton. Still getting a foot or more even down here was pretty amazing.

ugh not this again lol, la ninas are actually much more likely to have March snowstorms here. It's just that there isn't much cold air around. We need an airmass with temps in the upper 20s and lower 30s. also people realize that it just doesn't snow a lot after the first week of March, that's our climate.

Looks like 1" is a good possibility....is it about the same for JFK Don?

Yes, another reason why I don't like Miller B's lol. Miller A's are a snow purist's favorite snowstorm and a lot more fun to track. Add to that the fact that I dislike the term "winter storm"-- a storm is either a snow storm or it isn't. I hate the term "winter storm." I see the media latching on to this term and using it more and more-- which makes me dislike it even more! We should use one of three terms-- snow storm, ice storm, or rain storm. For mixed events, just call them a junk storm. I've also read a reference to Miller C, is that a Miller A/B hybrid of some sort?

Why is this storm SO small and why have storms recently been small like this? January 1996 in this position would have heavy snow all the way back to the midwest. January 2016 too.

I thought we were worried about this storm being a hugger? More west and it would be.

3-6...it's more like 1-3

yes elevation and latitude plays best this time of year.

Yes, these totals need to be halved

March 1998 roasted after that with temps in the mid to upper 80s, actually topped March 1990 in heat but I rank March 1990 higher because the heat that March occurred much earlier in the month. And then 1990 flipped and we had an early April snow event with 1-2 inches of snow lol.

That map looks like less than the first map, 2-3 inches and that's on 10:1 so half of that is more likely.