LibertyBell

Depends on what you call *lower* I dont consider dewpoints in the 60s to be comfortable, especially with temperatures around 100. And again, like I said thermal energy isn't the same thing as actual heat. Temperature is defined as the average amount of heat. The National Weather Service ranks our hottest summers by number of 90 degree days. If you look up hottest summers in NYC this is the measure you'll find. I agree what with you said about lower moisture being needed for extreme temperatures too, it's why our hottest summers are also our driest summers (it states that at the link I posted below too.) It takes more energy for the sun to heat up a wet ground (and wet air) than it does for the sun to heat up dry ground (and dry air.) I understand what high heat indices do to the body but it's like wind chill, it's not actual temperature. The highest heat index we actually have had in the city was the one recorded in July 1995 from what I recall, it was a combination of a temperature of 103 degrees at LGA and a dew point of 82 if I remember correctly. No data is being thrown out, we're just ranking hottest summers by highest temperature. Something else that's been commented on in previous years is that we have fewer long heatwaves than we used to, our last 7+ day heatwave was back in 2002. https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves I love this list because it corresponds well with my hottest summers list. https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2012/07/revisiting-new-york-citys-hottest-summers-.html New York's five hottest summers (since 1869) have all occurred since 1960: 2010, 1966, 1993, 1983 and 1999. The fact that just one of the years is from this century may surprise some since these years were so warm worldwide. Two of New York's five hottest summers were also extremely dry. 1966 had the the driest summer on record, with every month receiving less than two inches of rain (1.17" in June; 1.25" in July and 1.89" in August). The summer of 1999 was the fourth driest and featured the second driest June (0.59") and the driest July on record (0.44"). The combined rainfall of those two months was barely more than one inch (average rainfall in June and July is close to eight-and-a-half inches).

winter had that crazy cold wind, Ant

No it's not (and that low of a dew point never happens in our region with a high temperature of 98), Mt Holly said this earlier in a post too. We're not talking about thermal energy, we're talking about more moisture in the air causing the artificially higher low temps. Actual high temperatures measure the average amount maximum amount of heat. 89 degrees with a dew point of 78 might feel worse but technically a temperature of 104 is much hotter regardless of humidity. Dew point does not measure heat or temperature, it measures moisture. Plus you can have temperatures over 100 degrees with dew points over 70 too which is what we had in our hottest summers (1991, 1993, 1999, 2002, 2010, 2011.) 98 with a dew point of 48 never happens here in my experience. The least we would get is a temperature of 98 with a dew point in the 60s (to counter your example.) Plus you're disregarding the fact that the lower temperatures are due to an onshore wind, not a *hotter* wind. I'm pretty sure we are cycling towards a downsloping westerly wind pattern which will cause higher temperatures and lower dewpoints though, so that point is moot-- so I predict a return to the summers of the 90s to 2002 and the early 10s starting this summer.

Even 50s with strong March sunshine will feel warm-- lol anything without wind will feel good as long as it's sunny.

as far as snowfall is concerned, you can definitely be in the 40s during the day and have snowfall at night. We've seen that in April too. I think it was April 2006 (I forget the date-- maybe the 4th?) when we had 1 inch of snow here in the morning and highs in the upper 40s with sunshine in the afternoon. There was another day with a more memorable snowfall towards the end of March 1996 when we had 7 inches of snow here at night and in the morning and temps popped into the 40s and it felt warm in the afternoon when the sun came out. Snowfall depends on timing (which makes it much harder to predict than temperatures.)

I actually want to see if we can avoid 60 degrees during the entirety of astronomical winter, that might be the first time that's ever happened.

He's wrong to say it's going to be in the 60s, there aren't any 60s in sight and we haven't seen 60 degrees since before winter even started. I don't see any 60s until after winter ends either.

In the 2010s yes, but not in the 2020s. This decade has been pretty bad for March snowfall (or snowfall in any month really.)

I'm leery of using overnight temperatures because that's often the result of higher humidity and cloud cover rather than actual heat. I do see your point of using frequency and hourly readings though, it creates a more accurate weighed average.

Yes, much more snow even slightly to our south in Monmouth County where they had around 55 inches while we had around 25 inches (near normal.)

Lows:EWR: 8 (1963)NYC: 8 (1963)LGA: 9 (1963)JFK: 9 (1968) Interesting these were both cold and dry winters here..... -AO/+PNA pattern that Don mentioned was a suppressive pattern after mid February in both cases?? Also did the following storm produce snow here, Tony?? 1987 - A storm moving northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico began to spread heavy snow across the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Thunderstorms in northern Florida produced wind gusts to 65 mph in Alachua County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

How long is that sharp cold snap in early March going to last, Tony? From the 10 day forecast I saw, it's supposed to be a two day cold snap in the low to mid 30s and then back to the 40s starting on 3/4?

snowicane, February 2010?

I'm sure you understand that it's much easier to predict temperatures than it is to predict snowfall. Especially so on the margins (which Don also stated in an earlier post in this thread.) But even in the middle of winter it's much easier to predict temperatures than it is to predict snowfall. Snow is much more of an anomalous event than average temperatures are.

No you can find them yourself and they will be a hell of a lot more accurate than this cartoonish snowfall map from the 6z GFS. Even just going by climo for temps will be a lot more accurate than this. There isn't going to be snow here for at least a week, 0% chance.

Hopefully the last morning in the teens for the rest of the season. It's actually been in the low 20s here.

it's low 50s not 60s, don't know where he got 60s from.

long range maps, plus 40s is normal for this time of year so it's not a tough forecast to make.

Probably low 50s, the following week looks colder (especially March 2nd) and then it bounces back to the 40s again a few days later so a short but sharp cold shot? On a positive note, today was the first morning I noticed the sky getting brighter before 6 am here!

What's the record in this regard for JFK, Chris? Has any winter had 30 or more such days-- maybe 1976-77? Wild, our last truly cold winter (20 or more such days) was 2017-18... and how great were 2013-14, the entire 2002-03 to 2004-05 period and 1995-96 and 1993-94.

Yes, it was the wind that made it feel so cold. We didn't even have any single digit temperatures. We weren't that cold by average temperatures either, weren't all 3 months above normal at JFK?

This is part of my argument for why summer heat should be judged by number of 90 degree and higher highs and why winter cold should be judged by number of 32 degree and lower highs.

Records:Highs:EWR: 80 (2018)NYC: 78 (2018)LGA: 79 (2018)JFK: 65 (2018) we were left out of this warmth over here..... honestly, I've seen warmer days in both January and February when we've hit the 70s here (most notably January 6, 2006, on the 11 year anniversary of the January 1996 blizzard.)Lows:EWR: 6 (1959)NYC: 5 (1968)LGA: 6 (1968)JFK: 5 (1968) 1967-68 was a very cold and dry winter, similar to this one.

That's very low! Mine reads 25% right now. For the summer, try to keep it under 50% as that is the threshold for dust mites....

I dont like averages anyway, I feel like they dumb down the finer details which are more important. I like measuring winter cold by number of 32 degree or lower highs and measuring summer heat by number of 90 degree or higher highs.