LibertyBell

Yes, I don't see us having as few as 4-5 TC in a season like we did some years in the 70s and 80s either. The Atlantic basin is simply too warm for us to have that kind of a quiet season. Weak hybrid type sub tropical systems are really interesting, especially when they are out of season-- I think you mean a storm like December 1994 that retrograded and moved westward right over JFK? I'd like to see that again. That was an interesting thing about the 90s, before we saw the big ramp up in TCs starting around 1995 with the emerging +AMO , we had a lot of these hybrid type storms first beginning with the Perfect Storm in October 1991 of course. Maybe we could get a snowstorm out of one of these hybrids? I wonder if that's happened before at our latitude.... More Cat 5s too, but probably confined to Florida and the Gulf. I find it interesting we still haven't seen even a Cat 4 make landfall in the SE since Hugo 1989..... I've always wondered what made the pattern so different between 1938 and 1960 that we had so many landfalling strong hurricanes up here (especially during the 50s.) I wonder if it's possible for a Cat 5 to make landfall in the Carolinas.... has it ever happened? Even going back to the 1800s?

Walt, it won't make it down as snow south of I-80 in the Southern Poconos, even at 2,000 feet and above (for example: Lake Harmony)?

stay safe out there little bro, make sure you duck if you see a two by four flying by your head..... Maybe wearing a helmet would help too??

It's very scary my windows almost blew in. These can't be 45 mph winds or even 50, it has to be at least 60. The strongest gust I experienced was around 9:50 am.

Yes, but people think climate change will only cause linear changes in one direction. But we have to be ready for opposite changes going in different directions depending on competing factors. So more extremes. Yes, the average temperature will always keep going up regardless, but there are fine details that will change over the shorter term. For example, if the marine heatwaves in the West Pac are causing the strong westerly flow we've seen for several months then unless something lessens those marine heatwaves, I don't see what would stop that westerly flow. So in that case, it would mean that CC is the reason for it. So by this way, we can see how CC can cause both rainier/snowier periods and drier periods and periods of higher dew points and also periods of lower dew points, depending on which set of competing factors are being enhanced at a particular time. We're seeing this in California too, and it's making the wild fire seasons worse there (and year round), you have periods of time where there are excessive flooding rains and overgrowth and then you have long dry spells with high winds that are causing historic fires. We won't get fires on that scale (hopefully) but I could see the same thing happening here, with (for example) two decades of high rainfall followed by one decade of lower rainfall and drier conditions. It won't be exactly like the 80s and the 90s because CC has progressed since then-- but it's useful to remember also that we did not have a month as dry as last October was before climate change. And I don't remember a first half of November as warm as what we had last year. And at some point and especially with the current rate of change, there will come a time when higher dew points won't matter, it will hit 100 degrees at the coast at least 1-3 times a summer every summer because a new threshold will have been reached and we'll have a climate more like Jacksonville, Florida. I would guess maybe by 2080. https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/jacksonville/yearly-days-of-100-degrees Which year had the most 100° days? Based on NOAA records, the year 1981 holds the record for the most 100 °F days in Jacksonville history. There were 10 days with a high temperature of at least 100 degrees that year.

Thanks, less both west and east from the looks of it. What caused the enhancement right over the city? That never happens in the winter lol... except February 2006, which this map kind of resembles lol.

How much for JFK, I had about 0.6 here.

I hope we get this in the summer too, it will make it hotter where I live and at the same time in the summer these winds will be MUCH more comfortable.

Yes, the models always play catch up with these kinds of changes. A CC -AMO will be different from a pre CC -AMO (if there is such a thing, because we had significant climate change in the 80s too, just not to the magnitude we have now.) By the way and this is important to note, that CC is causing competing factors that either enhance or oppose each other. The strong westerlies are caused by the marine heatwave out in the West Pac isn't it? If that marine heatwave doesn't lessen, what would stop the strong westerly flow? It could be that the strong westerly flow is being enhanced by climate change. I can see why scientists say that CC will lead to more extremes-- not just warmer weather, but both rainier AND drier, both higher dew points AND lower dew points, depending on which factor is being enhanced more at a particular time.

It's been happening for a few years now and climate change won't stop the return to -amo any more than it can stop -nao from happening or stop la ninas from happening. It's a relative definition. We already have lower dewpoints now, the winds have been westerly for several months now and this looks to continue. October was the driest month we've ever had and January was also historically dry.

I mean we had some heavy rain from about 12:30 am to about 2:30 am. I heard it start up a bit after the St. John's game.

Yes there have been some CC changes but I'm pretty confident we'll be returning back to a drier regime for a few years (call it a correction to the excessive rainfall of the last two decades) and hotter summers with more westerly flow, not sure about the below zero lows in the winter like the 80s had. Expect the westerly flow this summer to be more than what we've had the last few summers, more like 2010 and 2002 before that and more like what we had in the 80s and 90s.

Yeah I've been yelling about this since last year. Last year's suppression of tropical activity during the peak of the season and dryness in the second half of the year was the shot across the bow. Expect these things going forward for the next few years: 1) drier years, a correction from the excessive rainfall of the past two decades. 2) hotter summers in terms of 90 degree days and even 100 degree days right down to the coast with more westerly winds 3) less busy tropical seasons (it does not preclude east coast hurricanes though-- see Belle 1976, Gloria 1985 and Bob 1991). 4) possibility of below zero lows becoming more common in the winter, although this depends on upstream cold and CC changes to the climate since the 1980s.

I would love to see a map of that storm, I wonder how it did all that, was it a double barreled low that robbed certain areas of snow and dropped extra in others (like Philly)? I wonder how much Atlantic City saw in that storm and if there was some location in eastern PA or NJ that saw even more than that 19.4" amount in Philly?

Don didn'Philly get nearly 20" of snow in a storm that fringed NYC with only 10" in early April? Strange to get fringed in April, but those maps remind me of that storm....

No sun here at all.

I thought the SSW meant it was supposed to be below normal from next week into April?

Don is the 10.5 at Newark accurate? And why so little snow at Bridgeport? That's the exact opposite of March 2001, which was another cold challenged borderline event.

I think most of the snowfall accumulation happened at night.

I like that, maybe we can create computer simulations to analog years and add in things that might be different like marine heatwaves in the West Pac, Pac Jet being faster, AMO switch, etc. And then see how accurate the simulations would be in terms of temperatures and general storm tracks (not exact snowfall totals of course.)

How much of a correlation do you think this pattern had to 2013-14, taking into account the faster Pac Jet, AMO switch and CC? I would say not more than 50%, what do you think, Ray?

what kind of storm was this-- a noreaster with marginal temperatures for the coast? when we were mixing early on I had nightmares of March 2001 lol.

I like this because our heat comes from the west. Another hot summer like this happened in 1983, look how wet that year was and yet it was our hottest summer on record before 1991 and 1993. For JFK it held the record until 2010! Look at September 1983 we had 6 days of 90+ including a 96 as late as 9/11.

Well I don't like the word *luck*, because it implies magic. I think we can use logic to explain everything. In this case we're just switching to a much drier cycle (Pac Jet + switching of the AMO) which will continue for the time being. It has happened before and will happen again.

They're not identical though, even removing chaos from the equation. We are in a much different precip cycle than we were in the early 2010s and this (I conjecture) is because the AMO is switching to a drier state and of course the acceleration of the Pac Jet. If you go back to August and move forward you see that the drier pattern was already established.