Jump to content

NJwx85

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    19,394

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    It's all a timing issue with the speed of the cold front coming in Friday night. The longer the system takes it get up here the further East it will likely end up.
  2. NJwx85
    We just had a massive strike
  3. NJwx85
    Yup, hook on radar.
  4. NJwx85
    When I spoke of not hitting 7" I was mainly speaking about areas North of the city. About 3-4" here near the I-287/Palisades Parkway interchange.
  5. NJwx85
    The 18z GFS has a solid burst of snow tomorrow afternoon while the 18z 3k NAM has spotty snow at best. The 12z RGEM split the difference and looks similar to the latest long range HRRR. Hopefully models are underestimating the snow coverage and intensity tonight, otherwise nobody is getting close to the 7" that was predicted for most.
  6. NJwx85
    No, the high end is 7" so more than likely warning criteria will not be met.
  7. NJwx85
    The criteria is 7" for a warning up in that area but confidence of reaching that usually has to be at least 60%. As I have always said, doesn't matter if you have a watch/warning/advisory ect. What matters is what actually falls.
  8. NJwx85
    It's still pretty much over by Friday morning except for light snow. Same deal as what happened with the last big storm. Accumulating snows should be over with by sunrise except for far Eastern areas.
  9. NJwx85
    Subtle changes on the 18z NAM vs the 12z NAM. The warm air comes in a bit faster but it's also very close with 700mb temps maxing out at perhaps +1C. That could probably be overcome by heavier precipiptation.
  10. NJwx85
    Soundings still show places like EWR going above freezing around 700mb by 20z.
  11. NJwx85
    24-36" here and not a single flake. So yeah, ten times worse.
  12. NJwx85
    January 2015 was worse.
  13. NJwx85
    96 was all about that high. The actual surface storm was nothing special. You had a very nice 522DM ULL close off over the TN Valley and spawn a surface low that crawled up the coast. I don't believe it deepened anymore than the low 990's. Many, many hours of overrunning followed by the crawling coastal and that's how you get 30" plus over thousands of square miles.
  14. NJwx85
    Yes, another recent example was January 2015.
  15. NJwx85
    After a Winter like this, who cares?
  16. NJwx85
    Miller A's are feast or famon. It's great if you end up under the death band and horrible if you're 10 miles East.
  17. NJwx85
    4-6" Thursday morning into early evening, then a bit of a lull and then another 2-4" overnight Thursday into early Friday. Should be most people to the 6-10" range. Certainly nothing to complain about. And then we finally break out of this horrendous pattern (Yes I am sick of this crap already) and we look forward to 50's next weekend as we close out the month. Spring is a month away.
  18. NJwx85
  19. NJwx85
    Ouch, if this is correct the city will start off as some light snow and then quickly change over to sleet.
  20. NJwx85
    WAA snows remind me of the November system from a few years ago that caught everyone off guard.
  21. NJwx85
    Still think most here will get 4-8" with 10" locally. Not that it really matters here. My snowpack is still over a foot deep in most places. Even with hitting 54 here today it didn't do much. I think I have a glacier in my yard.
  22. NJwx85
    It's relying on another shortwave rounding the base of the trough and creating another storm. It's possible but I certainly wouldn't bet on that happening without better model agreement.
  23. NJwx85
    This storm has in and out in about 8 hours written all over it. No blocking, strong mid-level jet and retreating high.
  24. NJwx85
    The 12z GFS was similar to the 12z NAM with regards to the WAA precip for Thursday, although not quite as far NW. It was however West of the 06z run and significantly faster and stronger.
  25. NJwx85
    4-8" for most, up to 12" locally. It should come in relatively heavy on Thursday during the day but the high is retreating and warm air will be moving in aloft so I would bet on a changeover South of I-84. Then it looks like we could get some back end snow on Friday but that looks to be very light.
×
×
  • Create New...