NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Still snowing here.
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Mega hit East of the Hudson river. Still have work to do West of the city.
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Still deepening. Down to 957mb.
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962mb. Storm force winds well inland.
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Looks a lot like the 12z ICON.
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Look how it backs the flow. Going to be a beast.
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That's not confluence. That's part of the trough.
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Is #20 available?
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Eventually the trailing low takes over and deepens. Go home ICON, you've had too many pilsners.
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12z ICON with the two separate lows that I was alluding to.
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Don't forget ratios will be at least 15 to 1. You can almost 1.5X those numbers.
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I'll take the 974mb South of LI for $500 Alex.
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For one, it could be convective feedback issues. It happens sometimes when you have really explosive convection to the Northeast of where the surface low should be. Sometimes the surface low will try to chase that convection which would never happen in reality. I've also seen cases where we thought it might be convective feedback but the further East idea ended up being correct. It's a crapshoot.
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Close enough that it would probably flip a lot of coastal areas over to sleet and then dry slot.
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Lots of members inside the benchmark South of LI. Many of those are probably big hits.
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I think it's a timing issue which more times than not usually resolves favorably. It's very hard for the models to pinpoint exactly how quickly the different pieces are moving.
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It looked like a transition run to me. Not a clean phase. Almost as if it tried to form two different storms.
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It looked a little messy to me at H5. The trough looked a lot better as early as 12z Friday but the Northern stream was still a little too fast so the storm starts forming a hair early.
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