NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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It drops quite a bit more liquid than the Euro between 18z and 00z. Temps really plummet after 12-15z.
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The last few runs of the HRRR have been trending colder in the near term.
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If it gets colder even an hour or two sooner it's going to make a difference.
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I think the reason for the warm tongue into Sullivan County is because of the difference in elevation. The cold air is very shallow.
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12z Euro gets extreme NNJ and the Hudson Valley below freezing by 12z. That's the key. It actually trended 1-2 degrees colder at this hour than the 00z run.
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The long range HRRR is similar. Watching for trends.
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LOL at the GGEM. 20 degree drop in six hours. I don't think so.
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19 degrees in Poughkeepsie, 22 degrees in Warwick and 30 degrees in White Plains at the same hour. The real cold air isn't far away.
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It's not a one size fits all scenario. 0.5" will accrete much faster at 28 degrees than it would 32 degrees.
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Of course it is or I wouldn't bother posting it. It has most areas North of I-80 below freezing by 12z.
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GFS won't back down.
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How much of the rain actually freezes on contact really depends on intensity and surface temps. The 3k NAM has most of Northern Bergen and Southern Rockland sitting between 28 and 30 degrees when the heaviest is falling. Would think you would get pretty good accretion at those temps.
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12z RGEM which has always been on the warmer side. It actually has quite a long period of ZR but the precip isn't as intense as some of the other guidance.
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Mt Holly and Upton aren't on the same page with this.
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Current run
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The threat hasn't really changed for the Hudson Valley and interior NNJ.
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12z 3K NAM. Really surprised they only went with an advisory for Orange and Rockland and Sussex. This looks pretty bad. Western Passaic too.
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It scaled back the Southeastern extent but had more icing for places like Rockland, Westchester and Bergen Counties.
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The 12z NAM looks icier than 06z.
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Having recently lived in both Bergen County NJ and Rockland County I can honestly say that Rockland is like a poor man’s version of Bergen County.
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Since when did this turn into the snowpack observation thread? Yes the HRRR doesn't have much ice South of 287 in Rockland but the GFS, 06z 3K NAM and some of the other mesoscale models are still on board. 12z will be telling.
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Very old infrastructure. Also LI has LIPA and PSE&G LI. NJ has O&R, PSE&G and JCP&L.
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18z GFS holding steady.
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He should consider himself lucky. Lost power for multiple days during the October snowstorm from 2011 and of course during Irene, Floyd, Sandy and Isaias.
