NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Be happy that most of this falls at night because if it was falling during the day this time of year it would just be white rain.
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The 18z GFS has a very sharp cut off South of I-287-I-87 in Rockland/Westchester. Basically on a line from Suffern to Spring Valley to Nanuet to Nyack to White Plains.
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That 1-3" is for non paved surfaces for the city and immediate burbs.
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My point and click in Rockland is for 3-5" Very similar to last weeks event. Changeover expected at 10PM Friday night. Ending late Saturday morning.
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The system finally occludes and stalls near Cape Cod on Tuesday night. Over 30 hours of precip from start to finish.
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Cannot ask for a much more juiced system. This would be a widespread 18"+ about 40 miles inland.
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Still snowing.
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Even at hr 126 temps are stuck in the mid 30's at the coast.
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Bombs Away
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It's mid March. A track like this in January/February would have produced for everyone but that time has long since passed.
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Incoming
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Euro hour 102. Surface temps start off in the lower 40's and fall into the mid-upper 30's along the coast. Looks like a paste job for the interior crew.
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The Euro is going to be a major hit (precip wise) Storm at 96 hours is developing off the VA Capes with precip breaking out over the area.
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Euro still pretty much in line with the rest of the guidance outside of the overdone GFS.
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I created a separate thread for the Monday-Tuesday storm.
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The Euro, GFS and GGEM all have a Nor'easter threat for Monday into Tuesday of next week. 12z Models so far: GFS - Develops late and hammers Eastern New England. GGEM - Coastal hugger. Heavy rain, flipping to snow for the far interior. Near blizzard conditions for the mid and upper Hudson Valley, up into interior New England. Euro - TBD. 00z was similar to the 12z GGEM.
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12z GGEM 2-4" interior. Coating to an inch coastal plain. Cutoff I-287-I-87 in NY.
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You have a few things working for you at the coast. Most of the precip falls at night and we could get a few hours of moderate/heavy precip. But the BL is warm and even though all areas should flip to snow eventually, it will be falling mostly on pavement in urban areas. Should see at least filtered March sunshine until mid-late afternoon. Bottom line it will have trouble accumulating outside of grassy areas unless it comes down very heavy.
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LOL that is one thing that the NAM is actually good for. People misuse it all the time but it was built to pick out small mesoscale features like this. It also does well with temperature profiles in borderline setups, although it does tend to be a tad too cold while the RGEM tends to be too warm.
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I'm tossing because it's the GFS. If the NAM/RGEM/HRRR show something similar tomorrow then maybe it's legit.
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That is contingent on this frame verifying with the band over LI as the storm is pulling away. Toss.
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12z GFS. Looks like I-287-I-87 in NY is the cutoff for 4"+
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This is going to end up similar to the system from last week. Most areas should be under 6". Most of the interior should see 2-4" with a few areas 4"+. 1-2" for NE NJ near the city, Central NJ and Southern Westchester. Coating for the immediate coastal plain.
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I think a lot of it is dependent on how intense the precip is. A stronger onset could bring about a brief period of dynamic cooling.
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The HRRR has trended snowier North of I-87 in Rockland. Has consistently shown 2-4" since the 13z run today. My guess is that an inch or two might actually fall before a flip to sleet. Fair compromise between the HRRR, 3k NAM and RGEM.
