NJwx85

The big island is barely populated. Maui is populated but most of Hawaii’s population lives on Ohau.

I know it’s technically not their jurisdiction, but can’t NHC step in here and at least assist? Hawaii is afterall part of the US.

They stayed at 155MPH at the 5pm advisory. Can’t say I agree, but as others have said, it doesn’t mean anything. Hurricane warning now for the big island, and watch extended to Ohau.

It’s not hyperbole, anyway I can see the same data as everyone else, and it looks more serious than it did yesterday and a lot more serious than 48 hours ago. I’m at the point where whatever happens happens. I can’t control it and leaving isn’t an option. So I’m riding it out and hoping for the best.

It’s not unusual at all to not upgrade during an intermediate advisory. They should have upgraded, clearly, but they might just wait till 5:00 HST.

Not really. We’re staying at Aulani.

FWIW in the last half hour I’ve seen three military cargo planes heading towards PHNL and now one stealth bomber.

Anyway, I’m not fearing for my life, I’m fearing of an awful 36+ hours and possibly of being forced to evacuate. And if that does end up happening, where would we even go? It’s not like I can just hop on the next flight.

No offense, but the latest track from the CPHC disagrees. And this isn’t a microcane, it has a 20nm wide eye and hurricane force winds extend out 40 miles from the center. Lane looks great on IR loop and is probably a cat 5 right now, even though they kept it at 155MPH for the new advisory. I’ll be feeling the storm as early as tomorrow night, well before the core approaches.

They went 155MPH at 11am. The track is now pointing towards a possible landfall on Ohau, however it leaves the door open for a possible track more to the right towards Maui or the big island.

I guess, time will tell. Hoping for the best. I’ve probably heard a dozen different possible outcomes here in terms of impacts. Just hoping for the least impactful.

What about the flash flooding from all the rain though? Some of the guidance dumps double digit rainfall here.

I think the hurricane center would be insulted by this comment. If the data supports an upgrade, they will upgrade.

Probably up to 155MPH. Didn’t ever think a few days ago this had any chance of reaching cat 5.

I was in Maui two years ago and while the island is indeed mountainous, the coverage and area isn’t like the big island, that’s all I’m saying.

Per latest discussions, shear will have the largest impact on weakening and differences with handling the building ridge are causing major differences in intensity forecasts. If the cyclone is slowly sheared apart, it will still pack quite a punch up here. Rainfall will still be on atrocious levels but at least storm surge and overall wind damage would be less.

Maui looks to have similar impacts to here.

Typically an approach from the South like Lane is the best shot the storm has at surviving. Lane should miss both the colder water pocket East of the islands and the higher terrain on the big island. Maui and Ohau have some higher mountains, but not compared to the big island.

Thanks. Im not so much worried about flash flooding as I’m on the 5th floor of a 14 floor high rise, part of a huge resort in Ko Olina, which is on the SW corner of Ohau. What is a concern is potential storm surge. The property is less than 10 years old and since hurricane strikes are so rare here, nothing in terms of a sea wall or protection exists. The only somewhat protection is from a man made dam for lack of a better term designed to break the waves and keep the sharks out, but it’s barely visible above the sea surface. I also don’t know about hurricane codes out here. Like we’re staying in a 2 bedroom with 3 large sliding glass doors. Sure they are probably built to handle strong winds but how strong exactly and what about strikes from flying debris?

Max winds up to 150 mph

11pm advisory up to 150mph max winds. Pressure down to 950mb.

The latest forecast trends are increasing the odds of direct impacts in portions of the Hawaiian islands. I’ll be in Ohau until the 29th, that’s if I can still get out then.