As modeled when ? Are we talking 4 days ago or 3 days ago or 2 days ago ? or as modeled yesterday ? I mean just 24 hours ago as modeled meant one thing in the morning and something else in the later hours and it meant something else depending if you looked at the models 24 or then 48 hours earlier. The GFS had this Storm East and even yesterday ( less than 24 hours before game time the GFS swung closer to the Euro and the Nam and the others only to swing back the other way later in the day. IMO,,,As modeled does not hold as much weight as advertised by you or anyone else
I will take 3-5 but I won't lie I'm greedy lol. My local weather service updated after 3 am they are saying 4-8,,,,,,,hopefully thats conservative and we get more but beggars cant be,,,,,,,,
that makes 4 amateur eyes if you include me,,,,,,watching the radar and reading so many people on here and on social media talking about how they are getting buried as I type is painful to watch and read but at least I didn't get shut out up here in Rockland as "some" predicted
Hard to gauge what we have here as it definitely was higher on my wood deck,,,and it is windy,,but i'm going with a guesstimate of 2 inches on the ground here in New City Rockland County.
THIS was issued for my area in Rockland County 40 minutes ago =
NEW CITY, NY
Weather Forecast
ISSUED 909 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY...
TONIGHT Snow. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Lows around 14. North winds around 10 mph, increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 90 percent. Wind chill values as low as 1 below after midnight.
SATURDAY Snow. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Blustery, cold with highs in the lower 20s. North winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. Wind chill values as low as 5 below.
I think the time to look at models is past and that’s not a bad thing by the way they have jerked the solutions but shouldn’t we all be looking at the radar or calling friends and family down south and see what is actually happening right now and compare it to what these models were showing ?
I am hoping for snow but to say that these models are "locked in" to any solution including this double barrel low look would IMO be a stretch. I think it's time to start looking at the radar and see where the low or lows actual are and also see where this setup phases or closes off