hlcater

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

The clipper trio did, as a recent not related example.

As did 12/10/21. That storm looked poised to dump on the I90 corridor before it ran to MSP in the final 36 hours. 

3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

True. 

But to the point mimillman got at, hopefully we're not seeing the end of the north trend already.

 

Are you in Michigan for this one?

@IllinoisWedges tonight 

The SREF plumes seem to almost always ride NW. Probably close to worthless at this range

DVN removed pops entirely for Cedar Rapids. That seems… unwise.

even if it is probably the right call

4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

18z Euro thru 12z Thur...

tick north of the 12z

Just now, Hoosier said:

There's been a general north trend on the modeling today.  

Ah. I'll trust you on it since you've likely been playing closer attention than I. Thx.

What else has come north besides the 18z GFS? The rest of guidance seems to look commensurate with their previous respective runs.

Pretty tough to call one run of one model a trend. 

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

you had to pay for the derecho years prior.

The derecho is our comeuppance for our cholera tier big storm climo and bad luck on top of that.

3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

I wish I were even remotely surprised. Good things don't happen for us. 

Read the stat in the banter thread before you complain any more please and thank you.

3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Far from over for you 

I think it’s been over since yesterday  for max band potential (which is what I was implying). It may certainly snow however.

Of course what could be a serious contender for the biggest storm since GHD looks to leave eastern Iowa out. The nearly 50 year 12” storm streak for CR shall continue.

How does Chicago (barring the lake) seem to reel in a 12” synoptic snow every 3-4 years while CR hasn’t had one in 50. It’s baffling.

Yes I’m mad about it

(The last 12” snowfall for CR is April 1973)

Gonna be a brutal miss on this one for CR/IC. Decadal storm potential here

Not feeling too optimistic about being this far northwest. Looks like a wicked hit for someone too. Really too bad.

Euro is a tick south of 12z

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

fwiw, slower probably the way to go

 

Too bad too as slower in this instance probably means south.

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

nice correction from 0z with the euro and liking where we sit, a northern fringe with prolonged lake enhancement solution isn't a bad fallback

KC-Kankakee-Flint special when all is said and done

9 hours ago, frostfern said:

This isn't a clipper so the Kuchera Ratio is probably overblowing the totals.  

I have no idea why that matters. Column temp/omega/saturation is what you want to pay attention to. Matters little where that is coming from. The airmass on the cold side of the baroclinic zone absolutely favors higher end ratios and as such kuchera is probably the better reflection here. 

Euro was close to a bomb but couldnt quite get there. Sad!

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NYC went from a 17-10 halftime lead to a 24-17 deficit at the end of the 3rd quarter. For eastern LI it's more like going from a 24-10 lead to a tied game at the end of the third quarter. I hope the football analogy is ok. 

its 4th and 14 with the game on the line for NYC rn

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

would be a shame to fumble the ball like that here, gulf is wide open and the cold air supply is there. def pulling for something more consolidated and wound up, even with the rainer risk

dw the northern stream is gonna ensure that does not happen

This system is gonna be a tough one to predict. Euro for example has 3 separate pieces of energy along a steep baroclinic zone with a 1045mb high pressing down from Canada. Add in the fact that how this baroclinic zone behaves depends on a shortwave traversing the US/CA border and a predictability disaster unfolds. Anything from a wound up bomb to suppressed/overrunning trash is realistically on the table.

1 hour ago, Spartman said:

Won't be this Feb. Feb is 100% done. It'll have to wait until March for at least one more snowfall opportunity, but it's otherwise time to punt until 2022-23. 

Lol

Models are underdoing a band of mostly rain in NW IA where temps are in the 40s. Models suggest any precip that does fall here tonight will likely be rain, but with that being said and given the current extent/intensity of precip near the area of low pressure, I wonder if we end up with snow here instead. Soundings prior to precip arrival appear pretty ripe for evap cooling. 2nd sounding should support snow or graupel. Expecting a DAB- even if it does snow. I'm mostly just interested in p-type.