hlcater

The 18z GFS/RGEM are in and the NAM stands alone. 4" call here looking money.

Just now, Natester said:

The 18z NAM is an easy toss.  Too far north with the heavy snow axis.

Respectfully, tossing a model simply because it’s too far north isn’t really worthwhile. I agree that it probably is, but the issue arises when you’ve made what is essentially the same post 15 times in the same thread without providing any reasoning as to why other than “too far north”. 
 

For example, you could make the argument that dry NEly flow eats away at low/mid level RH and prevents precip from spreading as far north as some models think it will. This is certainly the case for the models showing heavy snow to the hwy 20 corridor and may well be the case for Cedar Rapids as well, though seems unlikely from preventing us from seeing at least 4.” 

HRRR coming south again. CR will be left out of the good snow this run. Trend never fails. 

HRRR comes in way north and at the top of the QPF envelope. Not really sure what to think. The HRRR has consistently been on the north/stronger end of potential track solutions, and even at this range, I don't think that is something that can be entirely discounted anymore given the consistency that has been seen. But then again, the tendency for higher res guidance to be north in longer ranges is omnipresent.

I’ve been hurt too much 

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

HRRR is in the real world in terms of snowfall axis placement.

Also hits the LE quite well in NE IL/SE WI.

I thought it might come back south some. It’s still a somewhat northward outlier against the rest of guidance. And knowing CAMs tend to be a bit amped in their longer ranges makes me skeptical.

You can’t really ask for more than the 00z HRRR. Good for everyone really. 
 

Still thinking the HRRR is liable to be too far north. 

I didnt even know there was a Korean model

11 minutes ago, Natester said:

Fun fact: 18z ICON gives Cedar Rapids ZERO snow.

the ICON sucks my guy

Just now, Natester said:

Worse if the snow misses CR entirely like it did on 11/25/18.  Doubtful that will happen I wouldn't be surprised if we only got 4-5 inches from this.

That won't happen. I think our clearest avenue to 6" is more QPF with the system in general (ie stronger/wider band of snowfall) rather than a track shift. There is a very strong consensus on a SE IA thru Chicago track.

Think I'm probably going to throw in the towel for a 6" snow for CR. Thinking the max band ends up somwhere near washington, IA through evanston or so.

Gonna go with a first call of 4"

NAM coming southeast

12z euro coming in ass

hoping for a 50 mile shift northward. Though this seems unlikely with the way things seem to be evolving

Losing confidence in the weekend storm for my area. A whiff south seems most likely.

18z GFS and still snowing.

DVN is bullish

Quote

Saturday through next Tuesday...Latest ensembles and blends seem to
be coming together in suggesting a classic southwestern plains low
will develop and "hook" it`s way up along and northwest of the OH
RVR Valley. This path would place much of the CWA under the gun of
heavy def zone snows on northwest flank of H85 mb low pressure
center.  POPs and some confidence increasing on a significant system
for New Years Day, but still plenty of time for additional storm
track deviation. Strong cold dump and temporary arctic fetch still
on track to flow down the western GRT LKS and upper MS RVR Valley
into Sunday behind whatever system can bully it`s way through the
region on Saturday.

This would be fascinating.

General consensus of potential for 2-4" on higher res guidance with a very narrow band of snow traversing the region tomorrow evening.

Snow is wrapping up. Looking close to 3”. Very respectable and more than I thought

Interesting how snow totals have increased even though the track has trended south. 

GFS is a strung out mess.

Would probably go with a WWA for north and eastern portions of the DVN CWA given potential for briefly heavy rates during the morning commute, along with the fact that this will be the first impactful snow event of the entire season.

Though forecast soundings overwhelmingly support small flake size out this way, so I question how heavy rates will actually be. Let's rephrase that to "reduced visibility"

13 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Standard 10:1 caveats apply

 

It’s a widespread 8-10” on kuchera. Isolated 12” in S IA

Looks like a 1-3” system out this way on the morning guidance. After this December, even that is welcome.

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

PNA/SE ridge is still amped at that point. Doesn't trend downward until after that period.

There's quite a lot of cold air/higher pressures to the north of the system in Canada pressing down. Think that suppresses the system at least some. The EC depiction from earlier today seemed like the most likely outcome to me.