hlcater

I see this thread is off to an excellent start

150kts FL. No SFMR data so im interested to see what the sonde shows. 0.85 reduction is 130kts.

I’d not be surprised to see the true intensity here north of 140kts barring any marked changes prior to the 00z fix

30 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Sam's really been shedding the bands. Do we think this is just a temporary pulse down or maybe the beginning of some kind of annular transition?

The eye is also too small for an annular storm currently. Annular storms tend to have a relatively low ratio of eye:storm.

This latest euro run is probably going to be a landfall, if not it will be very close.

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Better than the recent slop.

Yea could be a threat to the antilles and bermuda, but idk, a landfall seems unlikely with the way that the east coast trough/ cut off ULL is modeled. 

Need a more progressive pattern and that system to lift out and let a ridge build in over top in order to get a bonafide landfall imo

larry 2.0

Time for MI folks to ride the LRC all winter!

god im in a coma for today.

rain should be nice tho

Been spoiled locally the past few seasons. While I'd love for that to continue, we're due for a dud.

Clear evidence of a hurricane at the mouth of Matagorda Bay. Elevation 7m. Assuming they see this observation, they'll upgrade.

Just now, Windspeed said:

Definitely going to be their worst hit since Odile. Of course Odile was a Category 4. But this will still pack quite a punch being a strengthening cyclone. Interesting to see what Josh samples.

My guess is it gets bumped to 100mph at the next advisory.

Things @Windspeed really hates to see.... 

Yea earlier today I was skeptical that this was worth being named, but you cant really argue with the radar imagery and obs. Pretty solid little TS, no ifs ands or buts about it.

Line.

6 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

The ‘remnants’ of Ida, which is not really a remnant but a powerful extra-tropical cyclone, is fixin’ to hit SE Florida today. 

Indeed, what’s left of Ida stretches all the way from South Florida to the Canadian Maritimes.

Delayed but not denied, lol!

lol

8 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

Do these floods from the remnants count? If so it may do 50bn today. 

Yea. These will go on the price tag.

The damage tag for this storm will be one of the greats. Thinking north of 50bn is basically locked in.

15 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Yes. It's a weather board, where weather is discussed. Shocking concept I know  

fair enough

Do we need threads for every birdfart swirl out in the middle of the atlantic?

2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

It's early but I am not entirely sure if that 12-16 ft surge verified, and if it did it seems like it was mostly over uninhabited areas. Highest report I saw was about 10 ft Laplace. Obviously, am open to be proven wrong. 

It did in grand isle. Water topped Humphress's cam and it was 14ft ASL.

god what a chad

Pressures havent risen so far.

1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said:

if it makes you feel any better, the success of this camera guarantees someone will do this again for the next Cat4/5.  probably put it up a bit higher on the pole.  that thing was going to last all day if the ocean didn't get to it.

No one will ever top the Mexico Beach cam.

Just now, Will - Rutgers said:

7' above the ground, and Grand Isle is 7' above sea level

14 foot surge already is very respectable. IIRC surge shoots way up right as the eye passes. Still a bit out from that yet.