hlcater

I-70 corridor looks primed for the potential of significant tornadoes tonight. HRRR has been relatively consistent bringing a long tracked discrete supercell through a fairly volatile environment. Additionally, with the rate of moisture advection being observed on stations to the south, I wouldn't be surprised if the true environment along I-70 ends up being in the neighborhood of 67/65 or so. Given that thermos are the biggest thing that the HRRR sees as limiting that environment, better than progged moisture would certainly make things interesting. I feel as if the moderate should've been expanded northward to account for this possibility.

6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

70 in December, -30 in January.

There’s plenty of cold sitting in the Yukon and Alaska just waiting to go on a conus tour.

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Probably something to that, amplification and all

I said that elsewhere. Anecdotally these big torches seem to almost always snap back to anomalous cold within a few weeks after ending and vice versa.

ready 2 b torched

2 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Wagons south look getting smell 

The solution to getting snow across portions of iowa seems to be letting the low deepen quickly. The 18z euro has a far better developed deformation zone to the west of the low compared to other models and has 1-4" across eastern iowa because of it. 

GFS has a system in the medium range that hasn't shown up previously

Perpetual cool NW flow with absolutely zero precip to be seen.

December 2017 vibes.

This pattern is just brutal 

I’d say 20-24” in CR. There is precedent for large storms elsewhere in Iowa, CR has just had an epic run of bad luck and is not representative of climo imo. 

First flakes in Iowa city today. No accumulation as expected

1 hour ago, Baum said:

thinking tomorrow ends up more interesting in these parts than the weekend impulse:

"A MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE MID-   
LEVEL LOW LATE TONIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN IL ON   
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS   
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW) ACROSS THE   
AREA LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SIGNS   
CONTINUE TO POINT TO SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW   
AND GRAUPEL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS GIVEN THE 7+C/KM SURFACE TO   
675MB LAPSE RATES AND NEAR ZERO WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. WITH THIS   
IN MIND, I CONTINUED TO HIT THE HEAVY WORDING OF THE SNOW SHOWERS   
IN THE FORECAST. I HAVE LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE   
FORECAST AT THIS TIME, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE   
POTENTIAL OF CHARGE SEPARATE IN THE CLOUDS, WITH SOME CAPE NOTED   
EXTENDING THROUGH THE -10 TO -20C LEVEL. OVERALL, THE PRIMARY   
IMPACTS FROM THESE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF   
SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE OR LESS, AND SOME LOCALLY   
HIGHER WIND GUSTS. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE,   
ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. OTHERWISE,   
EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN FOR MOST BY EARLY FRIDAY   
EVENING. ONLY SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED  
TO PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IN AND   
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. "

This turn towards true November weather is right on cue. Not a crazy or exteme pattern. Gradual step down to seasonality. Good sign IMO.

agreed. This gradual slope down to winter has been somewhat atypical over the past 5-6 seasons.

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

he should take the winter off imo, let some of the young guns have a run

hoosier loves it when the young guns run

Looking like several snow chances in the sub after about day 5. More or less on schedule I guess

in a coma

What a beautiful image 

how do I post as guest

I prefer wet n' wild

17 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

When he doesn't let politics get in the way he has a wealth of knowledge that very few meteorologist have. I agree though. Climate change is very real 

Bastardi is an idiot, straight up.

There is no "wealth of knowledge" over there, I can assure you of that. 

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

RIP.


.

yea nope nevermind lol

On 10/11/2021 at 10:48 PM, Malacka11 said:

Happy to finally have a non-shit picture to contribute. 

 

damn dude nice job

Tomorrow is kinda interesting.

Rapidly progressive triple point could support some highly sheared, relatively low topped supercells with a hail and brief tornado threat. I have an exam at 6:30 so I will not be chasing.

Would expect supercells to be very long and quite skinny based on relatively weak directional shear but exceptional speed shear. Interested to see how that ages.

Sit on the surface low tomorrow and profit off some high octane tornadic rain showers.

On 10/2/2021 at 6:42 PM, George001 said:

I disagree. The navy is showing signs of hurricane development off the gulf coast. This hurricane season has been severe with an ACE index of 128, well above climo for the ENTIRE season (105). It is very possible if not likely when all is said and done, we end up with over double that.

lol