hlcater

Think we should manage 2-3” with this one.

One of the more impressive ground blizzards I have experienced. Maybe even the most impressive. Only times I've experienced lower visibility had snow actively falling.

Visibility down to 0.38 miles imby just outside of Cedar Rapids. It’s really blowing out there. 

2.2" from the first wave slightly outperforms guidance.

GFS is a tick back west and a little wetter.

Euro is a glorified frontal passage out here. Good lord.

5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

It was all downhill after last night's GFS/ICON extravaganza.  Luckily by this morning I had already accepted our fate that the big dog threat was over for the dvn cwa.  Like many have said at least we'll get some cover for a nice white Christmas for once lol.

We still may see blizzard conditions with the arctic front, but anything truly noteworthy (like that is still talked about years later) for our area is probably off the table. What is interesting is that the low track actually ends up being quite favorable, it's just that on these runs tonight, the surface low is hardly existent as it transits IL.

Trends pretty terrible for those west of the lakes tonight. Hard to get a good storm if your low doesn't deepen until E MI.

First call 3-5" with some wind afterward.

(I'll clarify by saying at this juncture I am confident in at least 3-5", not that we cant potentially get more)

This is a bit of an overperformance. 1/2” down and perhaps 1-2 more to go.

Regardless of eventual placement, the trend to wrap up slower likely prevents Iowa from cashing in on something truly special.

Holy mother of god this run

Could see much of the sub under blizzard warnings with this one. Recent snowfall (or ongoing snow?), combined with single digits above and below zero and 50-60mph winds is gonna create life threatening travel conditions region wide. All at the worst time of year.

1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Okay thanks for that useful post 

Anytime hoss

16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I see that. Sigh. Obviously plenty can change still. But why I haven't got excited or too invested in this yet. 

You seem pretty invested for someone that is “not invested”

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

One thing I notice is, as strong as the storm is, the cold sector precip is not exceptionally intense.  This probably has to do with the deep moisture being displaced off the east coast, not accessible by the great lakes storm.

Probably also the fact that the cold side of this system is (very) cold. There is 0.30 of 6H QPF falling behind the arctic front with wind gusts of 40-50mph. It really reminds me of that system a few years ago with the flash freeze and snow falling behind the crashing front which was admittedly some of the worst winter wx conditions we've seen in recent years, despite only getting 4-5" of snow.

I will say what a refreshing pattern running up to Christmas. Consistent cold, multiple snow chances one of which could be significant, and these conditions are fairly widespread across the sub. Something we really haven't seen in the past decade.

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

insane temp gradient with that look, nearly 100 across texas alone

checks many of the boxes for historic regional big dogs

would go down as joe's best call since the ia derecho 

That low in Arkansas was about to go ballistic. Probably a historic bomb if the end of the run was allowed to play out

Yea the euro was about to go ultra giga at 240

8/10/20

12 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I wasn't expecting a lot of rain after the brief storm along the front, but post-front precip really expanded this evening and trained over the area for several hours.  I ended up with 0.84".  The last hour was sleet.

There were a few flakes mixed in as well. I estimated it to be something like 70/30.

First flakes of the season here

Finally kooch map szn

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

A thin line of storms fired near Cedar Rapids early this morning.  I received 0.23" and heard several rumbles.  At this point in the season, any rumble could be the last until spring.

Nah we’ll get more when we’re clocking 4”/hr in the death band

Fall colors are really vivid this year. Paint Creek in NE IA