hlcater

Nothing will top the derecho, not for a long time at least. At my location near Fairfax/Atkins. I had multiple gusts over 100 and one that probably approached/exceeded 120. In hindsight, lucky I didn’t lose glass in my car. Then we were without power for 3 days, and we were amongst the first to get it back. Even now, local forests are quite eerie with fallen snow atop large swaths of blown down forest. I’ll have to get some pics the next time it snows. The AON estimate is up to 9 billion in damage, which is just incredible. Perhaps(probably) it’s because I’m a huge weenie, but I feel like the spatial extent of the 100/120mph winds from the survey are underdone with south and especially westward extent(ie I’m confident I saw 120 3 S Atkins) and Nick Stewart was pretty confident he had 130-140 near Van Horne. For such a historic event, I really do feel like DVN dropped the ball in the survey department. Had 2” hail back in April, but that doesn’t hold a candle. Other than those two, only saw 2 tornadoes, each from a distance. So my noteworthy events list from this year is quite small. I’ll leave this by reposting some of the more impressive damage pics.

5.5" from 0.4 QPF in the past hour is leading to ratios ~14:1 at Binghamton.

One time, I got 1" in only an hour.

How was the dry slot?

Whew the long range is not looking particularly impressive at all. It is highly progressive which is nice, but it's flooded with a ton of mild air. Gonna have to hope that the storm signal Dec 23-24th materializes and is snow for most.

Measured 3.5" in downtown IC. Assuming that's compacted some, we probably saw 4" overnight. Pleasantly surprised. Family measured 3.7" in Hiawatha earlier this morning

Snowing in Iowa City. Temp 35.2

Going with 1.5” in IC.

I was being sarcastic. I think that poster mixed up MSP and MSN.

damn they're killing it up there! Considering driving up for this one.

And the euro comes in with a blizzard. lol.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

There are always weenie maps, if there's one thing in life I am certain of, it's fantasy range triple phasers that always disappoint.

Haven’t had a real December in like a decade

Looking like a slow start to winter.

nice

SPC goes 5% for wind/tor. Given degree of shear and really low level instability that isn't *awful*, I could see a few mesovort type tors in the line. HRRRs are pretty bullish, even exceeding 1000 SBCAPE. Storm mode looks poor overall here. Doesn't look especially chaseable even if there are tornadoes to be had.

Satellite presentation degrading and EWRC becoming increasingly dominant. That's probably all she wrote for this one. Doesn't look like it ever got 5 despite the incredible satellite presentation.

It might be, waiting on the next pass for sure. Though I think the truly rapid intensification is probably over with a well defined concentric band taking shape.

She's not gonna get much lower and faster when the core looks like this lol. I'm not sure whether or not this peaked a few hours ago though.

Yes there is.

That's interesting to say the least.

Eye is up to 10C, the warmest it has been. Perfect timing by recon.

Lol eta looks the best there by far and it's not close. We'll know in about 15 minutes whether or not it's got the punch to back up that sat presentation.

Revising my guess from 10 whole minutes ago to 901/150kt. I'll stick with that one.