hlcater

this thread is the biggest train wreck I have ever seen

Spot on!

So climo for those west of the lakes?! Its ass isn’t it!

UK/CMC/Euro all have a similar system at FH126. GFS has a clipper in the UP.

Wasn't sure where to put this and there isn't really a place for it, but seeing as Stewart has been around since 1999 and is well known by those who read the discussions, I figured it was newsworthy enough to warrant its own (albeit small) thread. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/stewart_retirement_010122.pdf

please dont encourage them, they're better off in quarantine

Pattern after about day 7 or so looking mighty mediocre. Looks like a seasonably stagnant pattern dominated by pacific air.

Final total of 6.4"

I busted low! Somehow. Not really sure how. looking at 6” outside rn

I will say I cant really remember a time where the dry air on the north side of a system was overmodeled. Big dry slot coming in and eating at the southern side of snow band sure. But even early this morning higher res guidance had the dry air holding on far longer than it actually did.

Yea haven't seen many others from the CR area so far so figured I'd throw mine in for once.

Just measured 5.5". Talk about a weenie band right up against the northward cut off of snow totals.

Just dumping. Maybe even 2”/hr right now. Visibility subjectively 1/8mi.

Parachutes right now in Hiawatha. Probably 1-1.5”/hr. getting extremely lucky with the placement of the northward edge of snow and this weenie band that’s been over Linn County basically all day.

It is snowing here currently. DAB+ so far. Should be just on the right side of the cut off? Time will tell. Flake size is very small at my location.

Now this, this would be quite something. My apt in IC gets 10" while my house in CR (where I am now) gets nothing.

I was joking

idk about yall but im all in on the SREF

18z euro

This thing is falling apart hard on HRRR/RAP for what that's worth.

GEFS really dried up.

The 18z GFS/RGEM are in and the NAM stands alone. 4" call here looking money.

Respectfully, tossing a model simply because it’s too far north isn’t really worthwhile. I agree that it probably is, but the issue arises when you’ve made what is essentially the same post 15 times in the same thread without providing any reasoning as to why other than “too far north”. For example, you could make the argument that dry NEly flow eats away at low/mid level RH and prevents precip from spreading as far north as some models think it will. This is certainly the case for the models showing heavy snow to the hwy 20 corridor and may well be the case for Cedar Rapids as well, though seems unlikely from preventing us from seeing at least 4.”

HRRR coming south again. CR will be left out of the good snow this run. Trend never fails.