janetjanet998

LOL TOR watch for western IL where they still had 2-8 inches of snow on the ground at 6am this morning

62/58 at lincoln now the WF has moved north of PIA (56/54)airport and is bisecting the PIA metro

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 434 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 215 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 700 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE, CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

These seem to be low topped mini supercells typical of "500mb cold core" (although in this case more of a hybrid set up) events that often surprise

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CST SAT DEC 01 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 011948Z - 012145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. A WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED. DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF CUMULUS IN FAR EASTERN MISSOURI HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST HOUR. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS THE START OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY NEED A BIT MORE SURFACE HEATING/MOISTURE ADVECTION BEFORE A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MATERIALIZES. THEREFORE, EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AFTER 21Z. CURRENTLY, MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 500 J/KG AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GIVEN THIS INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS, EXPECT SUPERCELLS TO BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BACKED ACROSS THIS AREA AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW, CURRENTLY ANALYZED IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI TRACKS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THEREFORE, GIVEN THE STORM MODE AND THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE (0-1 SRH ~ 150-200 J/KG), THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THEREFORE, A WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED. ..BENTLEY/HART.. 12/01/2018

Where is the MESO Discussion SPC?

It will be interesting to see if the snowpack may be a factor in regards to warm front orientation perhaps causing a more SW-NE front instead of a more typical west-east perhaps this may allow any storm moving NE near it to stay more sheared plus surfaced based longer rather then quickly moving north of it and into the cool side

cells developing north of STL its 61/57 in Lincoln but 40/40 At Lacon

notice the HRRR with the odd surface isotherms NW of the IL river this afternoon....I thought that was odd until I saw your post..I forgot about the snowpack 5-8 inches still on the ground in Knox county

LOT update STILL MONITORING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MENDOTA TO ST. ANNE IL. APPROACHING WARMER MOIST AIR, INCREASING INSTABILITY THAT WILL INCLUDE SB/ML CAPE, AND FOCUS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW HOUR WINDOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STILL AM WORKING ON DETAILS, BUT AM MONITORING ALL HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. WILL UPDATE THE HWO, AND WORK ON UPDATED GRAPHICS DETAILING THOUGHTS ON THESE POSSIBLE HAZARDS. RODRIGUEZ ILXUPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH NEAR THE I-72 CORRIDOR COINCIDENT WITH CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND MID 50S DEWPOINT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ACCAS LOOK TO CLOUDS FROM SOUTH OF KSTL TO NEAR KTAZ INDICATES ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALREADY SURGING NORTH. FARTHER WEST, SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING IS PRESENT FROM WEST CENTRAL IL BACK SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO. AS THIS SHIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE DRY SLOT AND AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT, FEEL SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD WILL OCCUR TO GET SB CAPES TO 1000+ J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHIFTS OVER THE AREA TODAY, RESULTING FROM 80-90 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. CONDITIONS NOW APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT 20Z-02Z WITH INITIATION IN FAR EASTERN MO/WESTERN IL AND QUICKLY SHIFTING ENE ACROSS THE CWA. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS AND CAMS ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION. OVERLAP OF MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENT OVER THE WESTERN CWA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT AS THE STORMS SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY EVENING. STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST 35-45 KT STORM MOTION. SPECIAL 18Z ILX SOUNDING WILL SAMPLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AHEAD OF STORMS.

16:30z SPC expanded the threat a few miles more north to include the PIA metro

HRRR seems to break out low tops mini SUPS near I-72 to I-74 in IL here the dryline/wind shift meets the warm front

Holy Moly..I forgot how dead it has been this year I wonder how often central IL has had ZERO Tornado watches for the entire calendar year..looks like for Northern IL the streak will continue

5% TOR probs AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ..SUMMARY A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ..SYNOPSIS MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE INTERIOR U.S./CANADA MAY TREND LESS PROGRESSIVE AND BECOME CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASED BLOCKING DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS REGIME WILL INCLUDE A BROAD AND DEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS BY 12Z THIS MORNING. AS THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY, MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL OCCLUDE. A SECONDARY LOW MAY DEVELOP AT THE TRIPLE POINT, ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSOURI, BEFORE MIGRATING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN INITIAL SURFACE COLD FRONT, ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, MAY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST VICINITY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A NORTHEASTWARD SURGE OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, OFF THE STILL MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO, IS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES BY EARLY SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THAT AN INITIAL INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE (CURRENTLY ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PINCHED OFF EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. ..MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IT APPEARS THAT AN EVOLVING DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION EARLY TODAY. THIS LIKELY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO CONTRIBUTE TO BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE, ALONG/NORTH OF A STILL INTENSIFYING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET (IN EXCESS OF 90 KT AT 500 MB FORECAST ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON). A RESIDUAL CORRIDOR OF SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60 F MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STILL SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF THE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW, THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD INCLUDE A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS, AND A RISK FOR TORNADOES, WHICH MAY SPREAD FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

Southern TOR warned storm looking good but looks to be over taken soon by surging Line just to the west but others discrete storms developing more east it seems

still on ground 025 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CST FOR NORTHERN ADAIR COUNTY... AT 1024 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF PROCTOR, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

At Last URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 640 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF ARKANSAS FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM UNTIL 200 AM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER THE WATCH AREA AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHILE ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WATCH AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. ALONG WITH RISK FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

TX/OK update MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...NORTH TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 429... VALID 010035Z - 010200Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 429 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DISCUSSION...AT 0030Z, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG TWO BANDS FROM NORTH TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK; ONE BAND IS ALONG A PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WITH THE SECOND BAND FURTHER WEST ALONG THE PRIMARY PACIFIC COLD FRONT. STORMS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED SUBSEVERE THUS FAR, BUT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OUN AND FWD EXHIBIT VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY (MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG). DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE AS THEY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN NOW AND 7 PM CDT, WITH MAINTENANCE OR CONTINUED GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT FURTHER EAST AS STORMS ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL, WHILE ANY SUSTAINED DISCRETE SUPERCELL WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY POSE A TORNADO THREAT. LATER THIS EVENING AS THE PRIMARY PACIFIC COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE STORMS FURTHER EAST, AN EVOLUTION INTO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED, WITH A CORRESPONDING DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FURTHER EAST, STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS EASTERN OK. WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE, POSING A NEAR-TERM THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXTEND SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 429 THIS EVENING. WHILE COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SOME AREAL EXTENSION OF THE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IF STORMS BECOME ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX. ..DEAN.. 12/01/2018

Oh for Christ sakes just issue a watch NOW MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX...FAR SOUTHEAST OK...MOST OF AR...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 010017Z - 010115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON. DISCUSSION...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT, EVIDENCED BY LINEAR/ARCHING REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE AND FAIRLY TRANSIENT UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER, STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STORM IN FRANKLIN COUNTY AR HAS RECENTLY SHOWN BETTER ORGANIZATION, SHEDDING A WELL-DEVELOPED LEFT-SPLIT AND DEVELOPING A STRONG UPDRAFT DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR. WITH THE INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT, STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAIRLY MARGINAL AS SHOWN BY THE DEEP BUT ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700 MB ON THE 00Z SHV SOUNDING. EVEN SO, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL WITHIN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. IN CONTRAST TO THE THERMODYNAMICS, THE KINEMATICS ARE ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EVEN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE TORNADOES, ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. ..MOSIER/GOSS.. 12/01/2018 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

What is SPC waiting for pulling the trigger on the AR watch?? A touchdown? Storm east of FT Smith looking good

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 302151Z - 302315Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AFTER 23Z FROM PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO CENTRAL OK. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 00Z. DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT ROUGHLY 30KT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH BLOWING DUST AND STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW APPROACHING SOUTHWEST OK. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS, ON THE ORDER OF 150-210M, DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD ARE INDUCING A FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL OK. MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS HAS NOW SPREAD INTO ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHWEST OK WITH MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW INTO JACKSON COUNTY. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, NEAR 60 DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL OK. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SPEED OF APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE FORCING, LATEST THINKING IS DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY 23Z OVER SOUTHWEST OK, PERHAPS EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER INTO NORTHWEST TX. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. AS CONVECTION SPREADS TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR A BIT MORE MOIST PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY WHERE LOWER-MID 60S DEW POINTS ARE ENCOUNTERED. BACK EDGE OF SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF I-35 BY 03Z.

Back in the day this would have likely been a moderate risk day..with a 990mb low, cold temps aloft and 64-67 dewpoints...and other parameters in addition to AR area...need to watch the triple point in central OK too latest out of Tulsa hinting at a northward expansion of the threat also 1630z SPC outlook which IMO is on the tame side AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1028 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2018 DISCUSSION WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A BIT FARTHER NORTH ADVANCEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE STRONG NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THESE TRENDS SUPPORT A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WITH MODELS NOW BRINGING 60-ISH DEW POINTS TO NEAR KS/OK BORDER THIS EVENING AROUND 03-06Z. STILL LOOKS LIKE TWO AREAS OF SEVERE DEVELOPMENT, FIRST WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR PERHAPS A BIT BEFORE 00Z, AND ADDITIONAL STORMS FORCED BY THE UPPER LOW ITSELF OVER CENTRAL OK WHICH WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK DURING THE EVENING. THE OVERALL FORECAST WILL NOT CHANGE A GREAT DEAL ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY. -------------------- DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2018 VALID 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL. ..OK/KS A POWERFUL, NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AND STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. TRENDS IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER DATA SUGGESTED, AND THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS ZONE OF WESTERN OK IS ALSO MORE LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, HAVE EXPANDED THE SLGT RISK AREA BACK TO INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SOME TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER, LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. THE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS. ..ARKLATEX REGION MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF AR/LA AND NORTHEAST TX DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN A ZONE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OVER AR. SHEAR PROFILES WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS STRONGER FORCING AND GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OCCURS. BY MID-LATE EVENING, SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE AREA OF HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO CONFORM TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS AND WHERE CAM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST CONFIDENT IN SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ENH REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ..CENTRAL/EAST TX TONIGHT RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAIN BUT GROWING POTENTIAL. ..SOUTHERN LA/MS LATE TONIGHT LATE TONIGHT, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN LA/MS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AFTER 06Z TO MERIT SOME CONCERN FOR ROTATING STORMS AND THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.

thread for the event today into tommorrow ..

Models have trended more unstable the last couple of days...dew points already to 60 at the Red river and moisture will continue to improve with time....cold temps aloft moving in models now have SBCAPE to 2000 later this evening here are the latest 12z outlook form SPC.... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2018 VALID 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK AND SEPARATELY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES, DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. ..SYNOPSIS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SOUTHERN-STREAM WAVE TRAIN, FEATURING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF AZ AND SONORA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NM AND CHIHUAHUA TODAY, REACHING THE EASTERN BORDER OF NM AND THE TX BIG BEND BY 00Z. A 500-MB LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE TROUGH AROUND 00Z, NEAR THE OK/NM BORDER, THEN FOLLOW A CURVING PATH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL KS THROUGH 12Z. BY THEN, THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGH SHOULD ASSUME MORE NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL/ NORTHEAST TX, WITH CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING A VAST AREA FROM NORTHERN MX TO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A 110-140-KT 250-MB JET WILL FLOW THROUGH THE TROUGH, EXTENDING/EXPANDING FROM FAR WEST TX TO EAST-CENTRAL TX AND THE LA/AR BORDER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO THOSE DEVELOPMENTS, SURFACE LEE TROUGHING NOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY. A CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CO/EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NM AREA, OCCLUDING AS IT DEEPENS, WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND THE OZARKS. A "PACIFIC" COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. BY 00Z THE COMBINED BOUNDARY SHOULD ARC FROM WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN OK ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX. BY 12Z, THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH SOUTHEASTERN KS, EXTREME EASTERN OK, EXTREME NORTHEAST TX, TO THE PSX/CRP AREAS. THREE DISTINCT CONVECTIVE PROCESSES CONTRIBUTE TO THIS OUTLOOK, THE FIRST TWO OVERLAPPING SPATIALLY. ..WARM-ADVECTION CONVEYOR, EAST TX TO SOUTHEAST OK AND AR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP FROM EAST TX ACROSS NORTHERN LA AND AR INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, EASTERN OK AND AR, WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES, DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW STRONG/EF2+ TORNADOES MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE FORECAST. AS SUPPORTIVE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSIST, LOW-LEVEL MOIST-LAYER QUALITY, DEPTH AND THETA-E EACH WILL INCREASE, WHILE MLCINH WEAKENS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE APPROACHING INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL STEEPEN LOW/MIDDLE- LEVEL LAPSE RATES, LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG AND VERY LOW LCLS. WITH THIS REGIME BEING IN THE EASTERN RIM OF THE WARM SECTOR, LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS LARGE AS IN THE FRONTAL PROCESS; HOWEVER, VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS SHOULD DEVELOP BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING EVENING LLJ, WITH MORE SUSTAINED POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. EFFECTIVE SRH 250-400 J/KG SHOULD BECOME COMMON, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES. THE FRONTAL ARC WILL IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN PART OF THIS REGIME LATE TONIGHT. ..COLD FRONT/DRYLINE, SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD AS THE FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND THE COMBINED BOUNDARY THRUSTS EASTWARD INTO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING, AT LEAST A BROKEN ARC OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND NORTH TO CENTRAL TX. STRENGTHENING OF BOTH CONVECTIVE-SCALE/LOW-LEVEL LIFT AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THIS DEVELOPMENT, WHILE DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND SHEAR STRENGTHEN. EARLY-STAGE CONVECTION MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR, WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GEOMETRY OF AMBIENT FLOW, INCLUDING BACKING WITH HEIGHT IN LOW/ MIDDLE LEVELS, SUGGESTS MODE COULD GET MESSY WHERE STORMS DO FORM, WITH LIMITED TIME WINDOW FOR DISCRETE CELLS. REGARDLESS, THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO A SETTING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SUPPORTING A CONTINUED TORNADO RISK INTO TONIGHT, PERHAPS FROM EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OR QLCS/LEADING-EDGE CIRCULATIONS. ..GULF COAST, LATE IN PERIOD WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OVERNIGHT, POSING AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THE SUPPORTING INFLOW LAYER BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED AND UNSTABLE. A WEDGE OF MARINE AIR WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM LA TO AL AND PERHAPS THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT, WITH DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S F, AND A DEEPENING MOIST LAYER WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E IN THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD OFFSET THAT FACTOR ENOUGH TO YIELD MLCAPE RISING INTO THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE, WITH ENLARGED AND STRONGLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP SHEAR FURTHER WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL MODES WITH THIS CONVECTION, WHICH MAY REPRESENT THE NORTHERN PART OF A BROAD AREA OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWARD OVER THE OPEN GULF BY 12Z. Day 2 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST THU NOV 29 2018 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ..SUMMARY A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ..SOUTHEAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE, MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DEVELOP FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST CONCERNING INSTABILITY. IN SPITE OF THIS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND MIDDAY INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA SHOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING THE 800 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT. THE TYPE OF SEVERE SHOULD DEPEND UPON WHICH MODE IS FAVORED. WIND DAMAGE AND QLCS-TYPE TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LINE SEGMENTS. IF A CLUSTER ORGANIZES WITH DISCRETE MODES, THEN SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH A TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR THIS EVENT INCLUDE 1) THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS TOO FAR NORTH 2) WIDESPREAD MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD HAMPER DESTABILIZATION FOR THESE REASONS, AN UPGRADE WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS OUTLOOK AND A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. ..TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE EXIT REGION OF A 75 TO 90 MID-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK ALONG THIS CORRIDOR, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER-SHEAR OF 70 TO 80 KT ALONG WITH THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND COLD AIR ALOFT, MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD TORNADO: 5% - SLIGHT WIND: 15% - SLIGHT HAIL: 5% - MARGINAL ..BROYLES.. 11/30/2018

PIA airport still 34 and only SN- sigh