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ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191609Z - 191915Z SUMMARY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. DISCUSSION...A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. NORTH OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE, CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MARION, INDIANA TO NEAR DELAWARE, OHIO, MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS DEVELOPED. A BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES HAS DEVELOPED FROM ROCHESTER, INDIANA TO NEAR ANN ARBOR, MI. THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND MATCHES 12Z NAM CROSS SECTIONS WHICH HAD AN AREA OF NEGATIVE SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY (EPV) ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING. THIS AREA OF CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY(CSI) IS EXPECTED TO WANE BY 18Z AND THEN REDEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. SNOWFALL RATES BENEATH THESE HEAVIER BANDS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH SNOWFALL RATES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF THESE STRONGER BANDS, SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR.

MKE update on LES REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 957 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019 UPDATE STEADY SNOW CAUSED BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY HAS ABOUT LOST ITS GRIP OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. MAINLY LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS NOW AFFECTING EASTERN AREAS, WITH MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES. MAY EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL DUE TO THREAT FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN EASTERN AREAS. WILL LIKELY LET INLAND COUNTIES EXPIRE AT 18Z. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NNE BY LATE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN THE SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED ON EASTERN PARTS OF THE THREE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

looks like 12z GFS shifted SE a bit like some predicted

maybe deeper lake enhancement then before seeded by the tail end of the system snow.?...may moderate/weaken as the system seeds move out until later this evening one thing is for sure these usually have surprises ..don't recall the date but years ago a meso low formed keeping the band over Lake county IL ...12+ inches in places

radar returns increasing over COOK county back towards LOT last 20 minutes or so

iI would guess an advisory to start with 3-5...band might be pretty instense but it is pretty transient....rates will likely peak in NW IND then move back west in a weaker form of course any mesolows could cause surprises

2-3 inches around the area in the LSR

0830 AM HEAVY SNOW MCHENRY 42.34N 88.27W 01/19/2019 M10.0 INCH MCHENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

1 inch last HR at ORD KORD 190651Z 07014G21KT 3/4SM R10L/P6000FT -SN BR OVC009 M03/M03 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP194 SNINCR 1/2 P0005 T10281033

Galesburg SN+ close to that here on the NW Side of PIA under a "convective streak" but it won't last long

models of now current trends weaken the precipitation as precipitation blossoms south...its already breaking up some....but looks semi-convective,, to our SW 1225 AM SNOW 2 SSE MACOMB 40.44N 90.67W 01/19/2019 M2.5 INCH MCDONOUGH IL TRAINED SPOTTER STILL SNOWING.

just north of the state line in the FGEN band...this wuold have been I-88/I-90 area if that band wasn't north of the model forecast 1030 PM SNOW 4 NE PADDOCK LAKE 42.60N 88.05W 01/18/2019 M4.1 INCH KENOSHA WI PUBLIC

some reports of 10-12 inches in SE MN and NE IA via LSE storm reports

KDSM 190054Z 03013KT 1/2SM R31/4500VP6000FT -SN BR VV007 M06/M07 A3001 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP175 SNINCR 1/6 P0006 T10561067

its has been in the model data all along and still there in the 23z HRRR, as soon as precipitation blossoms over southern IL area it kills the precipitation further north, hence the screw hole as the southern part takes over LOL at IKK on 23z HRRR

It has been been there for two days in some of the models....I have have seen it happen many times so I wouldn't LOL too much I foresee a moderate band of mod-heavy snow with a sharp south cut off drifting north starting at I-80 then stalling north of I-88..meanwhile precip will blossom south of us...and it will struggle to fill the gap this far north..and when it does it will be moving fast or almost over with

between the lead FGEN band, the true system snow, and then LES..NE IL could snow at various intensities for around 30 hours

ICON looks decent..also notice the WAA wing stalled over N IL ahead of the system..some models have this north which was why N IL got the screw zone in some runs

even the LES snow is reduced with warmer/delay of 850mb temperatures

looks warm..also it has that screw zone like the GFS over N IL..also the 87 HR map screams moisture robbing IMO with lots of precipitation along the OH river

LOL at EURO HR 216

FVS-GFS dry for N IL..screw hole WWA goes north..other precip later south

Very impressive ..I recall a few set ups like that over the years....one time a light band went all the way into KY off the lake...it had a break in southern Indiana but reformed as it got lifted up over the hills of Northern KY..the LOU AFD actually discussed Lake effect snow!

looks like there is going to be a big blob of precip south this time....got to watch out for moisture robbing

PIA total precip and snow? thanks