janetjanet998

I think Somebody may get up to a half inch of ice if the temp stays below freezing

some enhanced returns over your area for some reason

look at the QPF increase on the GFS from just 12z this morning...almost doubled 12z MAX ..78 NE IA 18z MAX 1.27 N IL 0z max. 1.48 MLI Edit: NAM too but MAX SE of GFS

GFS cave some....but not as far south as others

may be just noise to a little slower then modeled WAA...but at 03Z dew points in the Chicago metro 0 to 4 below while 00z NAM at this time had 1 to 4 above

yep..and slower over 1 inch of precip for me into NE IL on the NAM. ..

18z gfs still north

pretty decent LES band moving into eastern WI from the SSE.. oddity REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1126 AM CST MON JAN 21 2019 UPDATE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND JUST OFFSHORE, MOVING NNW TO EASTERN OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES. NAM INDICATING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL OMEGA AND CONVERGENCE LINGERING IN EASTERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SSE INCREASE, ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BUMPED UP POPS AND SNOWFALL IN EASTERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY, AND COULD POTENTIALLY GET 1-3 INCHES INTO THE EVENING IN THIS AREA. WILL WATCH CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE QUICK ADVISORY AS THE SNOW MAY INTERFERE WITH EVENING COMMUTE.

between the tuesday system and the clipper parade, 12z GFS dumps 2 feet of snow over central WI in the next week or so intense clipper in about a week..will change

18 GFS a hair NW of the 12z even all rain for most of N IL

after the tuesday system..looks like a cold but active NW flow..clippers every 2-3 days will add to the growing snow/ice pack

I wonder if LOT will reissue the advisory for Cook county for tonight? 2-4ish for starters 18z HRRR seems to hint at another meso low just offhore too dumping a almost foot just off shore SE Cook/Lake IND

band seem to be pushing east now as that mesolow weakened NWS Chicago ‏ Verified account @NWSChicago 1m1 minute ago More A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 4 pm CST for northern Lake County, IN, where heavy lake effect snow continues. Use extreme caution if traveling through this area this p.m., including along I-80, 90, 94. As of 12 pm, 5-6+" have been reported in Gary-Hammond. #INwx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1212 PM CST SUN JAN 20 2019 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1209 PM SNOW 2 NW HAMMOND 41.60N 87.52W 01/20/2019 E5.0 INCH LAKE IN PUBLIC FROM TODAY ONLY. REPORTED BY WJOB RADIO. 1200 PM SNOW GARY AIRPORT 41.62N 87.41W 01/20/2019 E6.0 INCH LAKE IN PUBLIC FROM TODAY ONLY. REPORTED AT GARY/CHICAGO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

FOR THE 18Z TAFS... THE CONCERNS FOR THE CHICAGO AREA AIRPORTS ARE: - WINDS NEAR DUE NORTH AT OR JUST ABOVE 10 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON - A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT - VARIABLE AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST OF ORD AND MDW THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY VISIBLE FROM MDW TO THE EAST. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO HIT GYY HARD THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z WITH BRIEF SUB 1/4SM VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST SLIGHTLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE BACK INTO MDW AND ORD IS LOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM-HIGH THAT THEY WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AIRPORTS, ESPECIALLY MDW. MOST PARAMETERS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING ARE BECOMING WEAKER THAN THEY ARE NOW, HOWEVER SOME WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY DECENT. SO BRIEF VISIBILITY UNDER 1SM IN THE SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY AT MDW AFTER 04Z, IS PLAUSIBLE.

i would have to think at least 6-8 inches around GYY ..the poster in munster said he had 3-4 inches in 90 minutes under weaker bands and that was over 2 hours ago GYY has had SN+ last 3 hourly obs that mesolow may be breaking down some...we will see

band has inched back west into extreme southeastern Cook county LOL you you see the western Push over the lake (see Vis sat) about across from MKE now of the main plume for later the plume goes SSE from that point but gets sucked back SSW into the meso low

GFS remains north of NAM

That mesolow is interesting.. it is preventing the band from moving east like it was modeled... also bands off the MI shoreline uplake are now pushing back west some if it doesn't move east in a few hours then it never will if that meso low remains robust and the west push comes later GARY /AIRPORT/ HVY SNOW 12 9 85 W5 30.29R VSB 1/8 WCI 4

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 930 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019 UPDATE 925 AM CST HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ONGOING INTO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY, INDIANA, AND THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS A CONCERN FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS. WITH THE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, WE FELT A WINTER STORM WARNING MESSAGE WOULD BE BETTER AND HAVE UPGRADED FOR LAKE COUNTY. THE MEANDERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OVER THE OPEN WATER HAS BEEN MORE PIVOTED INTO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY SINCE A LITTLE BEFORE 6 AM. NWS CHICAGO RADAR AND ESPECIALLY VALPARAISO UNIVERSITY RADAR SHOW MULTIPLE MESOSCALE VORTICES WITH ARCS OF 30+ DBZ WITHIN THIS BAND OF SHOWERS. ONE BROADER SUCH ONE IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY BY 10 A.M. GARY AND VISUAL REPORTS HAVE INDICATED 1/4SM OR LOWER, INDICATIVE OF AT LEAST 1.5"/HR, AND CONSIDERING THE SNOW IS LIKELY DENDRITES GIVEN IDEAL THERMAL PROFILES WITHIN THE CLOUD DEPTH, RATES ARE LIKELY 2-3"/HR UNDER THE HEAVIEST. PHOTOS AND REPORTS INDICATE SNOW-COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY, INCLUDING WEBCAM IMAGERY ALONG I-94 AT TIMES. THE CONVERGENCE WITH THIS PER SATELLITE, RADAR, AND OBS IS MEANDERING, AND OVER THE OPEN WATER NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD MESOVORTEX ON RADAR LOOKS LIKE IT IS SHIFTING EAST. BUT EVEN JUST A COUPLE/FEW MORE HOURS IN FAR NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY SHOULD RESULT IN AMOUNTS LOCALLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SIX INCHES WITH HIGH IMPACT TO TRAVEL. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD SWING THIS OR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS INTO PORTER COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH ITS MAGNITUDE AS IT DOES SO. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SPREAD ON HOW THE CONVERGENCE WILL BEHAVE INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELY SOME SHIFTING WILL CONTINUE INCLUDING SWINGING BACK WESTWARD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE TIMING OF THE HEADLINES IN A COUPLE HOURS BUT BELIEVE THE MESSAGE IS REPRESENTATIVE FOR NOW, WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACTS TODAY. MTF

NCLUDING THE CITY OF GARY 905 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019 ..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON * WHAT...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 MPH, WITH PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW NEAR THE LAKE. * WHERE...NORTHERN LAKE IN COUNTY. * WHEN...TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLAN ON SNOW COVERED ROADS, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AND RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES, AND SLIPPERY ROADS. THIS INCLUDES ALONG PARTS OF INTERSTATES 80, 90, AND 94.

might be a meso low just offshore..notice some of the returns are heading back northeast off porter county

12Z NAM interesting..continues south solution icy mess for N IL then convective cooling, I assume, turns it to snow , up to .8 inches precip falls

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 806 PM CST SAT JAN 19 2019 UPDATE 806 PM CST FOR EVENING UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING INCREASING COVERAGE AS EXPECTED, WITH HIGH-RES GUIDANCE REMAINING SIMILAR IN DEPICTION OF TRANSITION TO A MORE INTENSE SINGLE-BAND STRUCTURE LATE THIS EVENING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS DETAILED NICELY, WITH HEADLINES STRUCTURED APPROPRIATELY. EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS 996 MB LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER OVER EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS, PRODUCING GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE COLD LOW-LEVEL AIR TRAVERSING LAKE MICHIGAN WAS RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL AND FAR NORTHWEST IN EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF THE LAKE LATER THIS EVENING, WITH A TRANSITION FROM CURRENT LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTI-BAND SNOW SHOWERS INTO A STRONGER LARGELY SINGLE BAND LES PLUME LATER TONIGHT. WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 6500-7500 FT AGL RANGE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ALL OTHER PARAMETERS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LES WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE SINGLE-BAND PLUME. LAKE SURFACE TO 850 MB DELTA T'S AROUND 20C, LARGE POSITIVE AREA/CAPE BELOW THE INVERSION, AND CLOUD LAYER TEMPS WITHIN THE FAVORED -12C TO -18C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTIVE SNOW ELEMENTS. 4KM NAM/NMM/HRRR ARE ALL GENERALLY SIMILAR IN DEPICTION OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING INTO FAR NORTHEAST IL AFTER 9-10 PM THIS EVENING, WITH THE BEST CONVERGENT AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM LAKE CO. IL SOUTHEAST ACROSS COOK CO. IL OVERNIGHT, AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST IN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST FARTHER INLAND, THOUGH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SUBSTANCE APPEAR LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO THE LAKE-ADJACENT COUNTIES OF LAKE (IL), COOK, LAKE (IN) AND PORTER. THIS IS EXACTLY AS INDICATED IN FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT, AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE DETAILS OR HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1051 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019 UPDATE 1045 AM CST THE WINTER STORM IS GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MUCH OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKING TO END ON TIME. STILL, BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW OCCASIONALLY ARE SEEN IN THE DEFORMATION AREA OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ONE SUCH BAND IS JUST SOUTH OF I-55 OVER THE CHICAGO METRO INTO GRUNDY COUNTY AS OF 1045 AM. ANOTHER COUPLE SUCH BANDS MAY BE SEEN SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, GIVEN FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENT INSTABILITY ABOVE 600 MB (AS OBSERVED ON 12Z DVN AND ILX RAOBS). DISORGANIZED, LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION FROM JUST THAT. IN TERMS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER THE FALLING SNOW, REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT AND WEBCAM IMAGES THUS FAR HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY OR MAJOR ROAD IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH LOCATIONS AS THE SNOW ENDS. IF THE MESSAGE IS STILL JUST PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAINLY IN OPEN LOCATIONS, WILL JUST CONTINUE THAT IN THE FORECAST WITH NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINE NEEDED. CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MODERATE TO STRONG SINGLE BAND LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS, AND THE BEHAVIOR/PIVOTING OF THIS LIKELY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH THIS AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE PLUS INCHES, ESPECIALLY LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS, AND LAKE COUNTY IN INDIANA MAINLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.