janetjanet998

last year was very wet and recent snowmelt and precip have rivers running high or above flood stage....the ground is saturated the first of two heavy rain events will be starting this evening....with another later in the week..WPC has widespread 5-7 inches over much of the region the next 7 days this will cause potential major flooding....especially if the active pattern continues after this 7 day peirod I'm not saying this will happen but for reference the OH river at Cairo IL is at 42 feet (and falling for now) action stage 32 flood stage 40... Historic Crests Cairo (1) 61.72 ft on 05/02/2011 (they had to blow the levee just downstream) (2) 59.50 ft on 02/03/1937 (3) 56.50 ft on 04/03/1975 (4) 56.40 ft on 04/20/1927 (5) 56.20 ft on 03/11/1997 MS river New Madrid MO current stage 31..action 30 flood 34 1) 48.35 ft on 05/06/2011 (2) 48.00 ft on 02/03/1937 (3) 45.27 ft on 04/29/2011 (4) 44.60 ft on 04/09/1913 (5) 43.60 ft on 04/04/1975

NAM has a weak disturbance tuesday..a guess we can call it another clipper? another 1-1.5 inches maybe

with 2-4 inches of fluff down from the clippers....45-50 MPH winds out of the south(NAMnesT) with any snow falling could mean Blizzard conditions over northern IL Sunday night??

00z CMC instead over ORD more like MKE at 18z Monday

about 10 years ago or so we has a severe-thunderstorm warning(high winds) with an arctic front (actually Marshall county just north of me but I could see the lightning from here) ....and yes it was wet snow and rain mix

2 inches of fluff here maybe a hair more ... just drove around the city. A little more on the north side

LOL at the MSP and just east screw zone..now watch this track even more north to fill in that gap

almost SN+ here on the north side of PIA..big flakes......about 3/4inch down..roads snowpacked and a mess

looks like some moderate bursts developing SAVANNA* SNOW 0 -6 78 SE3 30.18F VSB 1/2

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1112 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2019 UPDATE 1112 AM CST DIFFERENTIAL WATER VAPOR RGB IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST. LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS HAS A 1018MB LOW NEAR KFSD WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THIS LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF ILX AND DVN BOTH WERE EXTREMELY DRY WITH PWATS OF BARELY 0.05" WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH. HOWEVER, CONTINUED AND STRENGTHENING ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPENING OF THE SATURATION IN THE COLUMN AND EVENTUALLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BIGGEST CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO NUDGE THE AXIS OF HIGHER (ALBEIT STILL VERY LIGHT QPF) FARTHER NORTH. GOING FORECAST USED SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS CLOSE TO 20:1 AND STUCK WITH THAT RANGE THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THE ASCENT IN THE BETTER DGZ IS FAIRLY WEAK AND THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER IS BARELY WITHIN THE PRIME DGZ RANGE. THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SLRS COULD END UP LOWER, PERHAPS 15:1 OR LESS IF THE DOMINANT FLAKE TYPE IS MORE NEEDLE AND CRYSTALS. WITH THE HIGHER QPF MOVED NORTH A BIT, THE 1-2" AMOUNTS NOW EXTEND UP TO OR JUST A BIT NORTH OF I-80. DEPENDING ON FLAKE SIZE AND SUBSEQUENT SLR, COULD END UP WITH MAX AMOUNTS CLOSER TO OR JUST BELOW AN INCH. REGARDLESS OF SNOWFALL IS A HALF INCH OR 2 INCHES, THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WON'T VARY MUCH. THE BITTER COLD AIR MASS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO IMMEDIATELY STICK ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND THE VERY COLD TEMPS COULD ALSO MAKE CHEMICAL TREATMENTS ON ROADS LESS EFFECTIVE. SO MAIN FORECAST MESSAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND RESULT IN POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING RUSH HOUR, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-88/I-290. - IZZI

decent front end hit for northern CHI metro..but then dryslotted

low over DBQ vs DVN on 00z

clipper today then another tomorrow slightly weaker and slightly more south

in one week meteorological winter will be 2/3rd over...here in PIA some of the biggest floods on the IL river come in march...cold pattern next ten days at least..it is not going anywhere soon..time will tell..

will be adding to both of these,,starting to get concerned about the SWE so late in the winter ...with last year being wet a wet spring could be trouble

FVS-GFS= poof on the monday system

CMC has that car (D) weaker and more north but more cars diving down after that hits northern IL hard with Car C (perhaps merges car B with it as a long WAA event or has a seperate CAR in MO SAT??)

Clipper train..per GFS car A- Friday 1-3 central IL Car B-Sunday- a weak system out ahead of the big one- 1-2 NE IL inch maybe Car c- the big one Monday/tuesday 6-10 somewhere Car D- thursday OH river area 3-5 Caboose

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 856 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019 UPDATE 856 PM CST NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST PLANNED THIS EVENING, JUST A BIT OF FINE TUNING TO TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE. CURRENTLY, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE IS FAIRLY CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH I-80 WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINING. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN THE RAIN-SNOW LINE LIFTING A BIT FARTHER NORTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE IL. DESPITE THE BRIEF RESPITE IN PRECIP, THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO GET ANOTHER 3-6" OF SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE. REGARDING HEADLINES... GROUP OF COUNTIES SET TO EXPIRE IN A FEW MINUTES LOOKS REASONABLE. KENDALL, NORTHERN LASALLE, AND NORTHWESTERN WILL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW FOR A BIT LONGER, BUT WITH TEMPS NOW INCHING UP JUST ABOVE FREEZING, ACCUMULATIONS SHOULDN'T GET OUT OF HAND DESPITE THE BRIEFLY HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW OCCURRING. SHOULD BE ABLE TO ALLOW COOK AND DUPAGE TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT MIDNIGHT AS WELL AS RAIN/SNOW LINE INCHES NORTH AND TEMPS CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ENDING THE MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATION RISK.

how much snow do you still have on the ground....alot of this liquid will absorb/freeze into the snowpack increasing the snow water equivalent with the cold and clipper pattern the next 2 weeks it will continue to add to it....(worried about IL river flooding down the road, family members get flooded out....)

it seems to be oscillating north and south based on heavy or light precip with an overall slight movement back north the 00z HRRR also seems to pick this up as it moves north or south depending on the heavier sim radar returns

if it is correct Lacon IL reporting heavy snow under those bands edit: but vis 1 mile can't be correct... heavy sleet maybe?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1136 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019 UPDATE 1130 AM CST FREEZING DRIZZLE, WITH SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS, HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SLICK CONDITIONS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LATER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, THE INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE. THIS OVERLAPS STILL SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE FORECAST, AT LEAST FOR A PERIOD, AND THAT WOULD FURTHER INCREASE IMPACTS TO THE EVENING COMMUTE DUE TO MORE PROLONGED AND HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATION. HAVE RAMPED UP THE MESSAGING SOME. THE ADVISORY MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LONGER PERIOD OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA, INCLUDING ROCKFORD, CONTINUE TO LOOK ON TRACK. OVERALL THOUGH, THIS FORECAST FOR 6-12 HOURS OUT, IS RIDDLED WITH CHALLENGES THAT LOWER THE CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL PAN OUT -- NAMELY ICE DURATION AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW. THE 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MOIST ASCENT AND MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE THESE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE DRIZZLE, CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR QUICK ICE ACCUMULATION, IN FACT SOME ASOS SITES HAVE REPORTED 0.04" TO 0.06" OF ICE IN JUST THE DRIZZLE. SO ROAD IMPACTS WILL CERTAINLY BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS UPPER FORCING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS...AND THE RATE OF THIS OCCURRING HAS SLOWED...PRECIPITATION MAGNITUDE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER REGION INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THE ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN HIGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA AND THUS CONCERNS FOR QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING. WHERE EXACTLY THAT HIGHER MAGNITUDE AXIS IS AND THE START TIME OF IT REMAINS CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD IN 6-12 HOUR FORECASTS. THE SURFACE LOW IS AT 1008 MB (NOT THAT STRONG) ACROSS THE OZARKS, AND BEING THAT FAR SOUTH AND WEAKER IS LIMITING HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE WARM ADVECTION IS INTO THE CWA. THE 32 DEGREE LINE IS NEARING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA, HOWEVER THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE (PLAYS MORE INTO ICE ACCUMULATION ON MANY SURFACES) LAGS THAT CONSIDERABLY, LOCATED IN FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING THROUGH STRAIGHT ADVECTION DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, FEEL IT WILL TAKE UNTIL EVENING TO SEE SURFACE WET BULB VALUES ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE CWA. THE AXIS WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL FALL LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS PARTICULARLY KEY, BECAUSE IF THAT IS THE CENTRAL CWA, IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PART OF THAT STILL COULD BE ICE. THAT SAID, THERE ARE A FEW MODELS THAT TRY TO QUICKLY INCREASE THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT AS IT STARTS TO RAIN AND DO NOT TOTALLY BUY INTO THAT. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED FORECAST ICE ACCUMULATIONS A TAD AND WE HAVE AGGRESSIVE MESSAGING OF IMPACTS TO THE EVENING COMMUTE. WIND SPEEDS WILL EASE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD KEEP IMPACTS TO POWER OUTAGES MORE MINIMAL GIVEN OUR CURRENT FORECAST ICE ACCUMULATIONS (0.10" TO NEAR 0.25"). FOR THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR SNOW AS THE -12C AND COLDER LAYER SATURATES AND FORCING STRENGTHENS. SOME OF THIS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES INCLUDING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MTF

Just drove from Pekin to the north side of PIA...there was some liquid on my car..not frozen car temp 34 in pekin and 32 north side

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1043 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019 UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019 ALREADY UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH TO THE I-72 TO DANVILLE CORRIDOR DUE TO REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN IN AREAS NOT ALREADY COVERED BY THE EXISTING ADVISORY. MADE SOME ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT GET QUITE AS HIGH AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING STARTING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WORKING NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WARMER TEMPS WILL BRING AN END TO THE FREEZING POTENTIAL AND WILL HAVE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AS THIS OCCURS. WILL SEND AN UPDATE NOW FOR CHANGES ALREADY MADE.