janetjanet998

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 859 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2019 UPDATE ISSUED AT 859 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2019 SNOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SNOW FROM AROUND HAVANA TO I-70 AT THE INDIANA STATE LINE, AND CURRENT RATE OF ADVANCE SUGGESTS I-74 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE IN SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM NEAR 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULDN'T FALL MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE NIGHT. EARLY SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF AT JACKSONVILLE AND EFFINGHAM AFTER ABOUT 2 HOURS OF SNOWFALL AT THOSE LOCATIONS. SEVERAL INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE AT MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH AMOUNTS OF 7-9 INCHES EXPECTED BY NOON FROM EFFINGHAM TO JACKSONVILLE AND 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM POPS TIMING, BUT FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY MINOR UPDATES.

NWS trending down in the zones for STL..WTF is gong on? it changes sometimes in 30 minutes 306pm OTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 14 TO 16 INCHES 451pm TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 12 TO 13 INCHES 804pm TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 10 TO 13 INCHES 836pm TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 9 TO 11 INCHES

yes ...at the end of the event under the upper system heavy precipitation rates over a small area will it turn to rain for a while tomorrow?

I have noticed the last few runs of the HRRR has had a north trend hour by hour (in IL and Se IA) the longer range 00z run is more north the the 18Z with next batch of heavier precipitation slug later..notice 1 inch into SE IA now

KSTL 112351Z 11007KT 3/4SM R30R/5500VP6000FT -SN BR VV009 M02/M03 A3024 RMK AO2 SLP254 SNINCR 2/4 4/004

3-5 inches down already in the Columbia MO to STL metro area COU has picked up over 1/2 inch of Precipitation since the snow began ISSUED AT 334 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2019 HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EVENTS (INCHES) AT KSTL AND KCOU: ENDING DATE IN PARENTHESES. KSTL KCOU 1. 15.6 (1912-02-21) 1. 19.7 (1995-01-20) 2. 13.9 (1982-02-01) 2. 18.0 (2011-02-03) 3. 13.5 (1910-02-17) 3. 15.3 (2006-12-01) T4. 13.0 (1914-02-13) 4. 13.9 (1900-03-01) 13.0 (1978-01-17) 5. 13.1 (1993-02-25)

STL has 9 so far, ILX 7 and DVN 2 in LSR's we could "break" the DEC record of 21 since ILX plans more surveys today..of course if we had the same radars. spotter/chaser network, and surveys back in 1957 that count would have been higher edit: looks like one of the STL/ILX surveys overlap and may be the same tornado ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031745- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO 543 AM CST MON DEC 3 2018 CORRECTION TO THE EARLIER STATEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF THE DATES AND TIMES AND UNKNOWNS. ..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 12/01/2018 TORNADO EVENT THREE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED A TOTAL OF NINE SHORT- LIVED TORNADOES WITHIN THE NWS ST. LOUIS COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON OF DECEMBER 1ST. THE AREAS IMPACTED WERE ALL IN ILLINOIS AND INCLUDE PIKE COUNTY, SOUTHEASTERN MACOUPIN COUNTY, AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY (IL). HERE ARE PRELIMINARY DETAILS ON THE NINE TORNADOES: PLEASANT HILL 1 RATING: EF0 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.11 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 25.0 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 0 START DATE: 12/01/2018 START TIME: 01:54 PM CST START LOCATION: 1 E PLEASANT HILL / PIKE COUNTY / IL START LAT/LON: 39.4439 / -90.851 END DATE: 12/01/2018 END TIME: 01:54 PM CST END LOCATION: 1 E PLEASANT HILL / PIKE COUNTY / IL END LAT/LON: 39.4455 / -90.8512 PLEASANT HILL 2 RATING: EF1 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 98 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.08 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 25.0 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 0 START DATE: 12/01/2018 START TIME: 01:56 PM CST START LOCATION: 2 NE PLEASANT HILL / PIKE COUNTY / IL START LAT/LON: 39.4584 / -90.8457 END DATE: 12/01/2018 END TIME: 01:56 PM CST END LOCATION: 2 NE PLEASANT HILL / PIKE COUNTY / IL END LAT/LON: 39.4593 / -90.8447 PLEASANT HILL 3 RATING: EF0 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.03 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 25.0 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 0 START DATE: 12/01/2018 START TIME: 01:58 PM CST START LOCATION: 2 NE PLEASANT HILL / PIKE COUNTY / IL START LAT/LON: 39.4661 / -90.8404 END DATE: 12/01/2018 END TIME: 01:58 PM CST END LOCATION: 2 NE PLEASANT HILL / PIKE COUNTY / IL END LAT/LON: 39.4664 / -90.8406 VALLEY CITY RATING: EF1 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 110 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.6 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 110 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 0 START DATE: 12/01/2018 START TIME: 02:40 PM CST START LOCATION: 1 NNW VALLEY CITY / PIKE COUNTY / IL START LAT/LON: 39.7272 / -90.6537 END DATE: 12/01/2018 END TIME: 02:42 PM CST END LOCATION: 1 NNW VALLEY CITY / PIKE COUNTY / IL END LAT/LON: 39.7186 / -90.6555 STAUNTON RATING: EF1 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 110 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.39 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50.0 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 0 START DATE: 12/01/2018 START TIME: 03:59 PM CST START LOCATION: 2 NE STAUNTON / MACOUPIN COUNTY / IL START LAT/LON: 39.031 / -89.7523 END DATE: 12/01/2018 END TIME: 04:01 PM CST END LOCATION: 2 S MOUNT OLIVE / MACOUPIN COUNTY / IL END LAT/LON: 39.0465 / -89.7359 RAYMOND RATING: EF1 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 8.02 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 75.0 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 0 START DATE: 12/01/2018 START TIME: 04:09 PM CST START LOCATION: 3 WSW HONEY BEND / MONTGOMERY COUNTY / IL START LAT/LON: 39.2315 / -89.6819 END DATE: 12/01/2018 END TIME: 04:21 PM CST END LOCATION: 2 WNW RAYMOND / MONTGOMERY COUNTY / IL END LAT/LON: 39.3352 / -89.6143 LITCHFIELD-BUTLER RATING: EF2 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 115 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 7.93 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 100.0 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 0 START DATE: 12/01/2018 START TIME: 04:16 PM CST START LOCATION: 2 SE LITCHFIELD / MONTGOMERY COUNTY / IL START LAT/LON: 39.1522 / -89.6324 END DATE: 12/01/2018 END TIME: 04:29 PM CST END LOCATION: 3 NW BUTLER / MONTGOMERY COUNTY / IL END LAT/LON: 39.2361 / -89.5663 BLUE GRASS CREEK SOUTHEAST OF RAYMOND RATING: EF1 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2.0 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50.0 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 0 START DATE: 12/01/2018 START TIME: 04:32 PM CST START LOCATION: 4 E HONEY BEND / MONTGOMERY COUNTY / IL START LAT/LON: 39.2584 / -89.5486 END DATE: 12/01/2018 END TIME: 04:36 PM CST END LOCATION: 3 SE RAYMOND / MONTGOMERY COUNTY / IL END LAT/LON: 39.2832 / -89.5304 .EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HARVEL RATING: EF0 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 80 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.06 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 25.0 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 0 START DATE: 12/01/2018 START TIME: 04:47 PM CST START LOCATION: 4 E HARVEL / MONTGOMERY COUNTY / IL START LAT/LON: 39.348 / -89.4577 END DATE: 12/01/2018 END TIME: 04:47 PM CST END LOCATION: 3 SE MORRISONVILLE / CHRISTIAN COUNTY/ END LAT/LON: 39.3866 / -89.4278 SURVEY SUMMARY: A WEAK EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE JUNCTION OF E 13TH ROAD AND E 000 NORTH ROAD, JUST SOUTH OF THE MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND CHRISTIAN COUNTY LINE. THE TORNADO DAMAGED A FARM STORAGE BUILDING, BEFORE ENTERING CHRISTIAN COUNTY. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE COMPLETE PATH, PLEASE CONSULT THE NWS LINCOLN IL FORECAST OFFICE. EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

This was a classic I-72 outbreak... as I have mentioned over the years the area along I-72 and a little north into the Southern peoria metro (Tazewell. Fulton county) has historically been a Tornado hotspot for some reason ... here is an older map showing the local maxima two of the strongest supercells of the 4-19-1996 out break hit this area including one that basically followed I-72 EF3 Decatur/..People forget Decatur was also hit by a high end F1 the day before that! If I recall correctly one of the May 1995 outbreaks was a "dryslot" punch clearing out the warm sector similar to this outbreak..but there was been many examples when that happened and nothing happened..for some reason there was something extra here

yep..temps upper 50's ...dews low-mid 50's less unstable then this afternoon but why are new cells developing at this time of day?? many times when you have a strong system it will shear the storms apart with weak instability in an airmass like this even with colder 500mb temps there was something different about this system .....the airmass this afternoon, although only in the upper 50's.. felt more "sultry" then it should have....and you could tell the low levels. were decently unstable because of the "bubbly" CU overhead

once again BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 747 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 815 PM CST. * AT 747 PM CST, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLFAX, OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAIRBURY, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO

duck hunting on a lake during a thunderstorm ...nice

couplet looks to to pass over Ellsworth (pop 195) but seems to be weakening

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 721 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018 ILC113-020145- /O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-181202T0145Z/ MCLEAN- 721 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY... AT 720 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NORTH OF LE ROY, OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ELLSWORTH AROUND 728 PM CST.

May have just SE of Leroy(pop 3500) or skimmed the extreme SE side

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 713 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 745 PM CST. * AT 712 PM CST, A CONFIRMED DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LE ROY, OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON, MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

The old Tayloeville cell going nuts again

buildings destroyed in Lewistown from earlier tornado

I think the NW side of Taylorville is the area got hit per Twitter reports peoria metro lucked out what was left of the two couplets moved over the NW part of the city and SE burbs

Well that Fulton county storms couplet looks to pass over me near my location ...if it hold together .. now getting vanguard rains Just checked on her at the nail saloon “ it will be awhile”

Per Twitter Power flashes on the Fulton county storm .. still stuck at mall on the NW side of PIA

Grrrrrr.. now she decided to get her nails done.. lol.. I am mobile .. please post close up radar shots of the PIA metro soon .. and plus it’s getting dark the Fulton county storm looks like it may move near me and the one just to south should affect areas just east of river near morton

4 tor warned storms in IL. I am on the NW side of Peoria at the Grand Prairie Mall in my car while my GF shops Tor warned storm to my west but I am very concerned about that monster to my SSW for the Metro or any new cells near it cloud based very low it’s a moist 57 although cool the air “feels” unstable

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 245 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018 ILC149-012115- /O.COR.KLSX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-181201T2115Z/ PIKE IL- 245 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... AT 245 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NAPLES, MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR I-72 AND HIGHWAY 100.

TOG again

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 237 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 315 PM CST. * AT 237 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER GRIGGSVILLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.