janetjanet998

models may playing catch up and change IMO you can already see the outer circulation bumping into the front...

rather large changes for the NAM...much faster ..but south due to almost due east movement..almost ESE

These SHARS events are low topped efficient rainfall events..often peaking at night..radar often underestimates rainfall rates..often not modeled well 3-4 inches down in place s NW of the IL river sparland IL 20 miles north of PIA 4.75 inches if its correct..they got trained by storms yesterday afternoon so it very well may be

DVN mentioning that vortex I was talking about they are also disregarding the EURO SUED AT 325 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2018 MID LEVEL CIRCULATION RIPPLING SLOWLY E/NE TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MAINLY RAIN/SHOWERS MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY SOUTH OF CID-FEP AXIS. SOME CONCERNS FOR SHARS (SUBTLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT) CENTRAL AND SOUTH, WITH SLOW MOVING VORT MAX POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING DUE TO TIGHTENING BAROCLINICITY, PRESENCE OF VERY DEEP ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE, LIMITED/SKINNY CAPE, WEAK SHEAR AND LOW/SHALLOW EL. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1+ INCHES LIKELY WHERE RAIN BAND STAYS ANCHORED AND TRAINING OCCURS WITHIN LLJ TRANSPORT AND CONTINUOUS FORCING........... .........SOME CONCERNS ALSO EXIST THAT REMNANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD STILL BE LURKING ABOUT AND RE-FOCUS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE HWY 30 TO HWY 20 CORRIDORS, AS BEING RECENTLY SUGGESTED BY HRRR.

no surprise really but GFS south of the NAM...seems to be south of 12z/18z runs too GFS weaker and has low near Paducah KY at HR84... NAM stronger and ENE of STL

0z NAM seems to have that weak Vortex the RAP has...you can see it in the 850 MB wind fields off and on and it seems to wonder around SE IA then into northern centraL IL the next 36 hours......dumping heavy rains before gordon.. now the 01 HRRR shows something similar in the sim radar returns over SE IA The heaviest rains form Gordon fall just south of the areas mentioned above..so there is still no overlap...but its pretty close

SPI hit 99 tied a record WTF? the forecast high was 90

18z NAM is in and to has some over lapping of the two events....and as a result there is a bullseye of 15 inches near UIN dry air from the NE eats away at Gordon saving north central IL from those amounts

ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0774 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 233 PM EDT WED SEP 05 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IOWA, NORTHWEST ILLINOIS, NORTHERN MISSOURI CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 051832Z - 052245Z SUMMARY...SCATTERED BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE AFFECTING PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA, NORTHWEST ILLINOIS, AND NORTHERN MISSOURI ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED, WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A RIBBON OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. IN GENERAL, THERE WAS NOT MUCH LIGHTNING, BUT THE SHALLOW CONVECTION WAS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES (GPS-PW OBSERVATIONS FROM WESTERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS ARE AROUND 2.1 INCHES), AND TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. THE CONVECTION WAS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED, HOWEVER, WITH A LACK OF STRONG FOCUSED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. RECENT RAP FORECASTS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTHEAST IOWA AND SURROUNDING AREAS, AND THE 17Z ANALYSIS DID SHOW THE POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF AN INCREASE IN 1000-925MB FRONTOGENESIS IN FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS MAY AID IN GREATER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH TIME. IF CONVECTIVE BANDS CAN BECOME ORIENTED IN A SW-NE FASHION (PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND), THAT WOULD LIKELY INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. DESPITE THE LIMITED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS, THE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY AND RELATIVELY HIGH SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS (WITH REGIONAL PRECIP ABOUT 250-500 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS) ARE COMPENSATING TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ALREADY, AND THIS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. IF A FRONTALLY-FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS, A GREATER THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP, AND THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE GREATER QUAD CITIES AREA.

18z RAP still has that overnight/morning event near Burlington ... interesting the storm total Precip out of ILX radar might be interesting .. it was reset this morning

Euro now south too...in line with GFS at HR 96.. WPC still has bullseye of 6 inches around Quincy IL days 1-3

The 12z GEFS mean come in a little north the O6z and more wet.. This is is do to a couple of them dumping around a foot of rain I think I am seeing a small slow moving disturbance in the models at 850mb over SE IA overnight..this could be what is causing huge amounts there before gordon.. 15z RAP very bullish with stationary heavy rain I haven't been paying attention but could this be the tropical thing that moved into LA/TX 2 days ago?

12z GFS about 50 miles southeast of the 12 NAM with max amounts CMC is much more SE with the actual low but much faster..looks goofy

12z NAM shifted back north from 06z some hits SE IA wetsern IL good with first round but then BARLEY misses that area ot the SE by like 75 miles with max amounts from Gordon.. No over lap ..but still 3-5 inches SE IA area..then 7-10 with gordan for areas SE

THe 06z models including the GEFS mean shifted once again SE now STL area east into OH

another south tick.......now bullseye on Quincy IL with a 7 inch bullseye area instead of SE IA this reminds me of tracking a moderate winter storm and each model run...but we are talking inches of rain instead of snow DVN WEEKEND GORDON REMNANTS CONCERNS...STILL MANY QUESTIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO BE WORKED OUT BY LATER MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS, BUT TRENDS ON THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF/GFS, SUGGEST THAT INCREASING MID LEVEL WAVE PROGRESSION WITH SOME DIGGING ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO HAVE AN EARLIER "KICKER" EFFECT EASTWARD ON THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXTENT OF GROWING GRT LKS MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY ACT AS A DEFLECTOR SHIELD, SHUNTING THE BRUNT OF GORDON JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DVN CWA MAINLY FROM CENTRAL MO, CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN IL AND EVENTUALLY IN/MI FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS MORE OF A CLASSIC PATH FOR AN INLAND STRIVING TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT COMES ASHORE IN THE GULF ACRS AL/LA. ALTHOUGH THIS TRACK WOULD STILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACRS THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME FLOODING AND FLASH-FLOODING, THE BRUNT OF THE CWA AND IT'S SWOLLEN RIVERS WOULD BE SPARED. SO THESE ARE OPTIMISTIC TRENDS FOR THE "HOME TEAM", BUT CAN'T LET THE GUARD DOWN JUST YET AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE WEEK MID CONUS PHASING BETWEEN UPPER TROF'S AND RELATED UPPER JET TRENDS FOR BETTER DEFINING THE PATH THAT THE GORDON REMNANTS WILL TAKE. AND AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE GRT LKS RIDGING COMPLEX TO BE A BIG PLAYER AS WELL. STAY TUNED!

round 5 Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 250 PM EDT Tue Sep 04 2018 Day 1 Valid 1741Z Tue Sep 04 2018 - 12Z Wed Sep 05 2018 1800 UTC update Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes The previous Excessive Rainfall outlook was upgraded to add a high risk from far north central IA...southeast MN into north central WI into a small portion of the southwest U.P. There is very good agreement in the latest 1200 utc hi res guidance and hi res ensemble means for an axis of very heavy and likely excessive rainfall amounts across the moderate to high risk area. There is very good run to run continuity in the hi res arw and nmmb...which often can show large run to run variability...leading to above average confidence. Probabilities from the href mean/hrrr are showing 60-90% probabilities for 5"+ amounts through 1200 utc Wednesday across the high risk areas...30 to 40% probabilities for 8"+ across southeast MN into west central WI. Very favorable conditions will continue to heavy rainfall this afternoon into tonight across these regions. Very favorable right entrance region jet dynamics will move across a region with pw anomalies 2.5-3+ standard deviations above the mean. A period of training of cells in a west southwest to east northeasterly direction expected late afternoon into the overnight hours---supporting 1-2"+ hourly rainfall amounts and totals in the 3-6"+ range across these areas.

WPC day 4/5 maps in...if you add the days 1-3 on top of that 5 day totals look to be 4-7 inches along a line 50 miles north and south from Ottamu IA to kankakee IL...1-5 day totals not out yet in other words I'm in the bullseye

following tropical system for years I have seen tropical system really crank out some huge amounts along and north of a stalled front..models often under forecast amounts in those set ups. I assume DVN will soon discuss this

Euro shifted south-east some from 24 hours ago..but still looks like a hair NW of the GFS...and a little stronger anyone have the QPF maps? new WPC maps thru day 3 seems to favor a more NW path..NAM like with 3-4 inches center on SE IA..with Gordon still yet to come

DVN update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1147 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018 UPDATE ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018 HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE CWA AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE THE WEATHER WAS DRY IN THE DVN CWA TODAY, THE AXIS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN KS TO WESTERN IA AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. UNFORTUNATELY, THE WET PATTERN QUICKLY RETURNS THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SPEED MAX ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES WITH THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK. THE HRRR/NAMNEST SUGGEST SEVERAL LINES OF STORMS FORMING OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA (EXCEPT OUR FAR SE) WITH TRAINING OR REPEATING STORMS. IN THE MEANTIME, PWAT'S INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN SO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR RATES EXPECTED. 1 HR FFG VALUES ARE ONLY ABOUT AN INCH ESPECIALLY IN OUR NW HALF OF THE CWA SO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE CWA AND STALLS. AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS, ON TOP OF THE 4-9 INCHES THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PAST WEEK. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM "GORDON" NEARS THE AREA. THIS ALL MAKES THE RIVER FLOODING SITUATION EVEN WORSE AS TIME GOES ON.

Gordon: NAM north..dumps on central and northern IL..and SE IA ..I-80 area hit GFS trended south with central IL to IND I-72 area hit CMC further south still with the low..but has some decent rains more NW with the front but all 3 have the heaviest rains falling mostly south of hard hit central IA area

Waterloo IA 7.08 inches so far in September

even after it passes it still remains rather active.... ...but check out the pattern again around day 10 LOL.... ring of fire again sets up..actually west of here.... This might be a very long thread if that ridge stays in place out east this month and what looks be tropical systems moving around it

after this evening activity...it looks like round 4 is setting up over NE into MN and WI you can tell the flow is pushing west by the new cells in Kansas moving NNW WPC still has 5 inch amounts beat focused a little more S into MO and IL 18z NAM continues with the push of the cold front through IA weds-thursday....