janetjanet998

latest DVN Hydro.. HYDROLOGY ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2018 SINCE 6 AM TODAY, ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY THUS FAR IS EITHER NEAR AND WEST OF WATERLOO, AND OVER OUR ILLINOIS COUNTIES. STORMS ARE SMALL IN SIZE, QUICK MOVING AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH, AND ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES. THIS CONTINUES TO OFFER A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE RAIN WHICH FELL IN NARROW SWATHS OVERNIGHT, FELL IN WIDE SWATHS THIS MORNING, AND NARROW AFTERNOON SWATHS IS ENOUGH TO HAVE MORE OR LESS INCREASED THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE RIVER FLOODING. MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS NOW EXPECTED ON MOST TRIBUTARIES IN IOWA AND ON THE ROCK AND PECATONICA IN ILLINOIS. ON THE LOWER STRETCHES OF THE IOWA, SKUNK, WAPSI, AND ROCK, SIGNIFICANT MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST, AND IN SOME CASES, LEVELS JUST UNDER MAJOR. THESE ARE IN PARTICULAR NEED OF CLOSE MONITORING, AS THEY COULD POSSIBLY EXCEED MAJOR IN THE WEEK AHEAD, MAINLY IF WE GET HEAVY RAINS JUST AHEAD OF THE CRESTS. THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS AT NEW BOSTON, KEITHSBURG, GLADSTONE LD/18, AND BURLINGTON. GREGORY LANDING HAS MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE FORECAST REMAINS WET FOR WELL INTO THE EXTENDED, EVEN AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS, THERE IS WATER YET TO FALL THAT IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THESE FORECASTS. THEREFORE, CHANGE IN CREST AND TIMING ARE LIKELY IN THE WEEK AHEAD. ERVIN

you guys have had alot of rain and it looks like a mini train is moving in concerned for the Rock River...and Des plaines and Fox rivers in Northern IL...later on

I was tracking hurricane Humberto in 2007 minute by minute of HOU....this seems to be doing the same thing...expect this wont run into land in 8 hours...the inner core has formed before most of the middle-outer core(..expect the north east side)..lets see if it fills in perhaps the friction affect helped that process start quickly There is often talk of Ocean heat content ..but IMO often that's over hyped....small faster moving systems don't really care how deep the warm water is...

he seems to be getting his act together rather fast not sure if a stronger system would mean a more east track? seems to be on the east side of the thin cone now too

the mesoscale chaos throws a monkey wrench into smaller river forecast but its easier to focus on the main stems.. The Missouri river above Kansas city is already in flood(tempered by the low volume Kansas river(so far) from MCI downstream) also IMO the Mississippi river above STL could have issues (tempered by rather low inflow from the MO river(so far) from STL downstream) HYDROLOGY ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2018 MAINLY MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES OR REMAINS FORECASTED OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS ON MANY TRIBUTARY RIVERS, WITH MINOR FLOODING FORECASTED ON THE SOUTHERN MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER, RIVER LEVELS AND FORECASTS COULD POTENTIALLY GO HIGHER IN THE NEXT 5-7+ DAYS AS WE ADD ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT YIELDED ANOTHER ROUND OF 1 TO 4 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS, HOWEVER THESE OCCURRED IN FAIRLY NARROW SWATHS LARGELY JUST CLIPPING PORTIONS OF SEVERAL TRIBUTARY RIVER BASINS MOST NOTABLY THE PECATONICA. HAVING LARGELY SPARED THE TRIBS WITH THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FORECASTS ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED OR COMING IN A BIT LOWER, AND SEEING A FEW SITES (KALONA, SIGOURNEY AND DEWITT) CREST OR RECEDE WITH LOWER LEVELS AS RUNOFF ABATES. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SECONDARY RISES AT THESE SITES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ROUTED FLOW AND/OR ADDITIONAL FORECASTED RAINFALL. AS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN RATHER MORE SWATHS OR NARROW CORRIDORS OF 1-4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. THUS, A GOOD CHANCE THIS RAIN WON'T HAVE A LOT OF IMPACT ON RIVER LEVELS UNLESS IT OCCURS DIRECTLY OVER A BASIN IN WHICH CASE COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL AND RAPID RISES AND HIGHER STAGES. ENCOURAGING DRIER SIGNAL IS PRESENT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION, AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MOIST CONVEYOR WILL REFOCUS THE MORE ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. CONCERN BEYOND IS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TAKING AIM YET AGAIN ON THE REGION OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH BOUNDARY STALLED NEARBY AND POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL REMNANTS LIFTING NORTHWARD AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR THEN WE COULD POTENTIALLY BE LOOKING AT AN INCREASED RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING. SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

0Z Nam aggressive with the front cleaning IA by Weds evening

ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0747...CORRECTED NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 601 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2018 CORRECTED FOR NEEDED RECREATION OF MPD GRAPHIC AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA/SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 022138Z - 030325Z SUMMARY...TRAINING AND REPEATING ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL THROUGH 03Z. 2-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 21Z SHOWED TWO MCVS OVER IA, ONE ALONG THE WESTERN IA/MO BORDER AND THE OTHER ALONG THE IA/WI BORDER, BOTH MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. EACH MCV WAS CONNECTED TO CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH DUAL-POL ESTIMATED RAIN RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WITHIN THE HEAVIER CORES. TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN CONVECTION FILLING IN BETWEEN THE TWO MCVS OVER CENTRAL IA. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS AT 21Z DEPICTED A SIZABLE AREA OF 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE JUST SOUTH OF THESE MCVS. WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE THE MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER IA AND WI, THE IDEA OF FUTURE EVOLUTION IS HINTED AT IN ITS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT. BOTH MCVS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A TRACK OFF TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WHILE 25-30 KT 850 MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERRUNS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. GIVEN THE 850-300 MB MEAN WIND IS ROUGHLY 20-30 KT (A ROUGH PROXY FOR STORM MOTIONS), SOME TRAINING/REPEATING OF HEAVY RAIN CORES IE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS THROUGH 03Z AS FORECAST BY THE RAP. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW OVER THE REGION (1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS) HELPING SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH 2-4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z.

WPC still has 5-7 inches 7 day totals over IA area...hints of SE push and pattern change days 6-7 A little out of our sub forum but same event MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0746 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 501 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHERN IA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 022055Z - 030255Z SUMMARY...AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AND 03Z ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NE, SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z, SOME OF WHICH WILL OVERLAP WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION POSING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. DISCUSSION...2030Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED A SURFACE TROUGH, ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING, FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST MO. RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KS, INCREASING IN COVERAGE OUT AHEAD OF A STRUNG OUT LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH A COUPLE OF VORTICITY CENTERS STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE 20Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS KS INTO MO AND SOUTHERN IA WITH ERODING CIN CONFIRMED BY THE RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KS. EAST OF 100W, GPS SITES AND THE 18Z LMN SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS KS/NE/IA/MO. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AS SUBTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OCCURS. THE RAP HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH A FORECAST 70-90 KT UPPER LEVEL JET FORECAST TO LIE FROM NORTHWEST IA TO LAKE SUPERIOR, PLACING THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND ADDED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL KS/NE BETWEEN 00-03Z. MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, 850 MB WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE ACROSS KS BEYOND 00Z WITH OVERRUNNING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE THE LFC SUPPORTING TRAINING/REPEATING OF CELLS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 03Z IS EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS, SOME OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OVERLAP WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, SUPPORTING FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

new DVN long term HE LONG RANGE OFFERS LITTLE HOPE FOR MORE THAN A SHORT REPRIEVE FROM THIS EXCEPTIONALLY WET PATTERN. THAT DAY IS TUESDAY, WHEN THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE A BIT FARTHER WEST, HELPING PUSH THE FOCUS FARTHER WEST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. BEYOND THE DETAILS THIS IS WHAT IS IMPORTANT. HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT THE MIDWEST EVERY 24 HOUR PERIOD THIS WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE SAME DIURNAL INCREASE AND DECREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE RING OF FIRE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST ALLOWING OUR AREA TO ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PWAT VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER AND THE DURATION OF THIS AIR MASS IS QUITE CONCERNING. CERTAINLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING. THE MOST CONCERNING POTENTIAL I SEE IN THE EXTENDED, AS IT WOULD SUGGEST A FAR MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH CONFIDENCE HEAVY RAIN EVENT, IS THE POSSIBLE PRE RAIN EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PRE, OR PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT, IS WITH LANDFALLING TROPICAL FEATURES MOISTURE PLUME AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NORTH OF THE TROPICAL HIGH, WHICH IS MORE OR LESS THE CURRENT RING OF FIRE PATTERN. RAINFALL IN THE WEEK AHEAD COULD ADD UP TO OVER 5 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. STILL, MESOCALE DETAILS WILL DETERMINE STORM INITIATION EACH DAY, AND THOSE LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. THAT UNFORTUNATELY IS BEYOND THE ABILITY TO BE FORECAST BEYOND A DAY, AND WILL RESULT IN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TO BE FORECAST IN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA THAN IS WILL VERIFY UNTIL THURSDAY. AFTER THURSDAY, THE PRE EVENT COULD OFFER A LESS CONVECTIVE, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.

seems it also keeps a southerly flow in the plains days 8-9 while the GFS Builds in a high...in not sure what the moisture and precip are though,..I assume it is shunted east and has to rebuild This also seems to plow Florance into the east coast ...while the GFS is well east with the stronger trough east

12z ECWMF also has a shreared out version of that tropical system near STL at 192 hours..major difference between it and GFS at days 8-9 DVN HYDROLOGY ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018 TORRENTIAL RAINS FELL ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA LAST NIGHT. THESE RAINS FELL ON THE UPPER REACHES OF TRIBUTARY RIVERS THAT FLOW INTO OUR CWA, MOST PROLIFICALLY ON THE ENGLISH, IOWA, WAPSIPINICON AND ROCK RIVERS. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WAS COMMON, WITH SOME 3 TO 4 INCH REPORTS IN IOWA COUNTY, AND JO DAVIESS/STEPHENSON COUNTIES. THESE RAINS, COMBINED WITH ONGOING HIGH WATER, AND FORECAST RAINFALL AHEAD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN RIVERS REACHING FLOOD STAGE,MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AND EVEN MAJOR IN ONE CASE. FOR THAT REASON, WE HAVE BYPASSED USING THE WATCH WITH RESPECT TO A FEW POINTS THAT ARE AROUND 3 DAYS OUT FROM REACHING FLOOD LEVEL. THIS WET PATTERN IS HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT FORECASTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THAN FALL SHORT ONCE ALL THE WEEK'S RAINS FALL. THE ENGLISH RIVER AT KALONA GOT HIT WITH FLASH FLOODING RAINS AGAIN LAST NIGHT, THEREFORE, HITTING 18 FEET OF MAJOR SEEMS LIKELY AND WE HAVE ISSUED A WARNING REACHING MAJOR. MARENGO IS IN A SIMILAR POSITION ON THE IOWA RIVER, BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE TODAY. IN ADDITION, MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE IOWA RIVER AT OAKVILLE AND WAPELLO. ON THE SKUNK, SIGOURNEY SHOULD ALSO NOW REACH MODERATE, POSSIBLY NEAR MAJOR. ONCE AGAIN, FUTURE RAINS MAY FORCE HIGHER LEVELS. THE WAPSI AT DEWITT 4S SAW MODERATE STAGE RISE YESTERDAY, AND IS FALLING, BUT ROUTED WATER WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE MODERATE FLOODING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MISSISSIPPI IS RISING, AND WITH SO MANY TRIBS SHOOTING UP, IS LIKELY TO BE ADJUSTED FARTHER. FOR NOW, THE CONFIDENCE ON MINOR FLOOD IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE WARNINGS FOR NEW BOSTON ON DOWNSTREAM, EXCEPT FOR KEOKUK.

Both the 12z GFS and CMC have that tropical system up this way with the GFS more east... at least it takes the high PW moisture with it as it moves east next weekend

12z NAM and WPC discussion: well day/night 3 of the train may be missing a few box cars over IA/IL ..still heavy rains though in IA/IL/WI ..seems KS/NE get smoked .. tomorrow looks like the train is back around you tuesday it may shift north and west I should note there is a tropical disturbance near LA and the NAM takes some of this moisture and seems to increase PW values even more coming up into the midwest ...but it does push the train well SE by 84 hours as high pressure builds into MN

Long term AFD from DVN mentions tropical system ONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018 THE LATEST SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP THE MID SUMMER-LIKE RING OF FIRE GOING FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IN OR NEAR THE LOCAL AREA OF CONCERN. STILL SOME HOPE THAT MID LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADE OR AMPLIFICATION SHUNTS THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN AXIS JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL STILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST GETTING CLIPPED BY STORMS AND MORE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH WED. THERE COULD BE ALMOST THE DAILY NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. COMPOUNDED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN IN OR NEAR THE AREA WILL IMPACT RIVER BASINS WITH ROUTED FLOW, OR LOCALIZED RAIN PRODUCING INCREASED RIVER FLOODING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE TROUBLING SIGN OF REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM GETTING DRAWN UP TOWARD THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND OR THE WEEK AFTER, WHICH COULD REALLY COMPOUND FLOODING PROBLEMS IN AN AREA HIT BY OCCASIONAL BOUTS AND SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OVER A WEEK. THE 00Z GFS BREAKS THE FLOODING PATTERN BY SEPT 10TH OR 11TH WITH A BIG COOL DUMP/LONG WAVE TROF OUT OF CANADA.

NO change to WPC precip maps maps.MOD risk for excessive rainfall today, Slight tomorrow , and then moderate again tuesday NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 439 AM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Sep 02 2018 - 12Z Mon Sep 03 2018 ...MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE MID MS VALLEY... ...Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley and Great Lakes... Another active convective day from portions of the Central Plains into the Great Lakes. Overall a similar setup to what we have been seeing the past few days with the region in between the upper level troughing over the west and ridging over the east. The synoptic setup is probably not quite as good over IA/WI/IL as it has been...with the upper jet displaced a bit further north and weaker 850mb moisture transport forecast. But will continue to have a boundary in place, weak to moderate low level flow into the boundary, and another shortwave pushing northeast across the area. PWs will also be equal or even a bit higher compared to yesterday. Thus appears likely that additional convection will occur across IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon and overnight. Like the synoptic situation, the high res model signal is not quite as robust over the area today either...but still suggesting an additional 1-3"...and still the potential for localized 3-5" totals given the persistent (albeit weaker) moisture transport supportive of some training/backbuilding and higher PWs. Given the heavy antecedent rainfall over central and southern IA, this additional rainfall likely poses an elevated flash flood threat. For this reason have opted to upgrade to a Moderate Risk for much of southern and central IA, with additional flash flooding likely today. Some potential this may need to be expanded into portions of northern IL and southern WI as well...although at this time the signal for 3"+ additional amounts is lower here, and thus will maintain a Slight for now. The heaviest rainfall magnitudes over the day 1 period may actually end up falling further south across central KS into far southeast NE. 850mb moisture transport is more impressive across this corridor...and the persistent and stationary nature of this moisture transport axis is very favorable for backbuilding and training convection. Thus would appear like a corridor of longer duration heavy rains is possible, with both the 0z HREF and HRRR indicating pockets of 5"+ totals. Current indications are that this activity should end up mainly south of where the heaviest antecedent rainfall has been. For this reason will keep the risk level at Slight across KS and southeast NE. But will need to monitor through the day...as the setup does have the potential to warrant an upgrade even if the rainfall falls over drier grounds. And if there were to be a shift north in the axis into areas that were recently hit hard, then additional flash flooding would certainly become likely and warrant an upgrade. Thus will keep an eye on trends and reevaluate as the day progresses.

Round 2 starting ... WPC still has that same stripe of 5 to 7 inches over the next 7 days looks like they keep the tropical low over Texas via the 6/7 day QPF

after the previous training days.....both the 12z CMC and GFS develop a tropical system in the gulf and move it up this way...GFS further east and faster CMC/GEM solution seems to have the flow around it overriding a front with epic precipitation amounts

12 NAM favors N IL back into IA with a 4-7 inch thin stripe before the train moves North and West monday as the ridge builds back a little more NW on the East Coast,, it seems to be a hair too far north with this mornings MCS though... it seems the OMA NE area gets overlapped with the tracks (west-east moving then south-north) and the NAM cracks out 7-10 inches around there

Large MCS over IA into NW IL and SW WI. 3-4 inches down in areas.'...isolated 6-7 inches ......with widespread 1+ inch amounts Waterloo IA 3.02 inches since midnight The MCS would start to weaken here this morning and become more progressive as it moves east into CHI metro However this will prime the ground for whatever develops this afternoon and tonight for round 2...which the exact location won't be known until later WPC has still has 5+ inches the next 7 days from NE into WI..with a bullseye of 7 inches over SW IA IMO extreme rainfall amounts are possible the next week if the train tracks don't fluctuate north/south much each day

MKE update pretty much sums it up REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 646 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018 UPDATE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS THAT THE AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO BLOSSOM AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ABLE TO TAP INTO A SOLID 1500-2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. WITH SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR, A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LARGE HAIL. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO 2"+ OVERNIGHT, WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING, AS CORFIDI VECTORS FALL TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN, BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FEATURES TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION, IT'S TOUGH TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC AREA THAT HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WELL- PLACED WITH THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE THE LEAST TOLERANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, AND THESE AREAS WILL CERTAINLY BE OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR IMPACTS SHOULD THEY SEE THE RAIN OVERNIGHT

well, as you know, short range models often perform poorly in these set ups due to unpredictable meso features....for example, there seems to be a disturbance over NE IL this evening that the models missed or were too weak with...... 1-2 inches of "bonus" rains down(could prime the ground even more if later rains also hit there) and a t-storm warning thrown it for good measure if a few hours the LLJ should show its hand and give clues for the overnight train location

no change really from the new WPC maps...4-5 inches from NE into WI next 7 days... the 18z NAM products are rather concerning for eastern IA into N IL....a little south trend models didn't handle the MO convection well today and that held up the warm front some from moving north ....

The potential exists for very heavy rain and eventually river flooding over MN, IA, WI and N IL maybe ENE into MI The pattern seems stuck with a strong high off the East coast with tropical moisture flowing north into the midwest... Due to recent heavy rains , soil moisture is high and some smaller rivers are in flood in WI.(Kickapoo had record flooding a few days ago)..Northern MO area has been in a drought but heavy rains this morning are weakening the "drought shield" for that area A ring of fire type pattern is setting up..WPC 7 day rainfall amounts are 4-5 inches from eastern NE into WI(of course isolated higher amounts) Medium range models suggest this pattern may continue for at least the next 10 days....with mesoscale outflows likely playing a role where the daily heavy rain train sets up Of course any tropical systems moving around the ridge later on may also add to all of this too In Summary: major daily flash flood events likely....developing into main stream river flooding events

AN 83 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT THE IOWA CITY AIRPORT AT 628 PM.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1383 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2018 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL IOWA FROM JOHNSON THROUGH SCOTT AND CLINTON COUNTIES. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 357... VALID 282307Z - 290000Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 357 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIAL LINE EMBEDDED TORNADOES EXISTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS JOHNSON AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN IOWA. DISCUSSION...A STRONG BOWING SEGMENT HAS DEVELOPED IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA WHERE THE LINE HAS INTERACTED WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND IS MOVING TOWARD IOWA CITY. A SHARP REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT AND A DEVELOPING REAR INFLOW JET SUGGEST THIS BOWING SEGMENT MAY BE PRODUCING SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. CURRENT LOWEST TILT WIND SPEEDS IN THE APEX OF THIS BOW ARE MEASURED AROUND 85 KNOTS PER BOTH THE DMX AND DVN 88D. THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE BEING MEASURED AROUND 6000 FEET IN THE STORM, BUT STILL REPRESENT THE AREA OF GREATEST WIND SPEED. WIND GUSTS WERE MEASURED AT 68 MPH SOUTH OF THE APEX OF THIS BOW WHERE MEASURED WIND SPEEDS ARE MUCH LESS AND THE REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE IS NOT AS ORGANIZED. THEREFORE, WOULD EXPECT THAT SURFACE WIND SPEEDS MAY BE IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH ON THE APEX OF THIS BOW. IN ADDITION, A LARGE MESOVORTEX HAS FORMED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS BOWING SEGMENT. THIS VORTEX WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A NARROW SWATH OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JOHNSON COUNTY, IOWA AND COULD PERSIST AS FAR EAST AS QUAD CITIES.