janetjanet998

I think there is a chance your area may get the local screw zone...the band is now to your north and the best Max deformation snow rates may fall SE of you later The latest 18z HRRR seems to be picking this up too by screw zone I mean a couple inches less then your neighbors..still alot of snow though very impressive spin on radar in MO now

ILX update AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1238 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2018 UPDATE ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2018 HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT AND UPDATED FORECAST RECENTLY ISSUED. HAVE UPGRADED ENTIRE WINTER STORM WATCH AND A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. THIS IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT (6 PM TO 6 AM) ALONG AND WEST OF A CASS TO WOODFORD CO. LINE. THIS IS A RARE OCCURRENCE AND A QUICK STAT CHECK SHOWS ABOUT 1000 DAYS SINCE ILX HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED EAST TO THE I-55 CORRIDOR. FINALLY, FOR AREAS NOT COVERED BY WINTER WX HEADLINES, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALL HEADLINES COVER THE 6 PM TO 6 AM TIMEFRAME. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR THE NW CWA TONIGHT. DEEP SURFACE LOW NOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO WILL TRACK NE TO NEAR KCMI/KDNV BY 06Z WITH PRESSURE NEAR 995 MB. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED A SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION ZONE INDUCED SNOW AREA NOW IN EASTERN KANSAS TO WESTERN MO. THIS IS WHAT WILL BRING THE BULK OF OUR ACCUMULATION THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AFTER INCREASING COLD ADVECTION BRINGS THERMAL PROFILES BELOW 0C FROM THE NW. FORCING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY POINTS TO HEAVY SNOW RATES 1-2"/HR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR AND NW OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW GUSTING TO 40 KTS TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. NORTHERN KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES ARE NOW NEAR THE MAX SNOWFALL AXIS WHERE ISOLATED 10"-12"+ AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. TRAVEL WILL QUICKLY BECOME DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. FARTHER SOUTHEAST IN THE ADVISORY AREA, LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3" RANGE WILL STILL CREATE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS DUE TO 40-45 MPH GUSTS. HOWEVER, LIQUID:SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER HERE SO AT THIS POINT EXPECT LESS SEVERE CONDITIONS THAN FARTHER NW.

I went from a WWA (3-5) to a Blizzard warning (4-8)

ILX webpage 11 am Update -- We have increased the snowfall amounts for areas from about Rushville to Bloomington northward. Totals of 5-6 inches are likely around the Peoria metro area, with 8 inches around Galesburg and Lacon. Blizzard conditions are likely in some areas west of the Illinois River this evening, as winds increase to around 40-45 mph. Any travel into this area should be done before about mid afternoon.

I suspect they may add some counties to the winter storm warning south of the current one (like peoria county)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1054 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2018 UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2018 AFTER ANALYZING 12Z DATA AND SHORT TERM MODELS, WILL BE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST REGARDING THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM. MODELS HAVE HONED IN ON STRONG SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM NORTH OF STL TO NEAR DANVILLE TONIGHT. TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER, DELAYING CHANGEOVER TO SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FAR NW, AND LATER IN THE EVENING TOWARDS THE I-55 CORRIDOR. THE SYSTEM DOES APPEAR SLIGHTLY STRONGER SO EVEN WITH THE LATER CHANGEOVER HEAVY SNOW WILL STILL AFFECT THE NORTHWEST CWA. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE HIGHER WITH UP TO 40 KTS NOW IN THE GRIDS. TREND HAS ALSO BEEN FOR A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 06Z, SO ACCUMULATING WILL BE LIKELY THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS IN PLAY SNOW TOTAL HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 6-10" ACROSS KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES, WITH 4" ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH TO A RUSHVILLE TO ROANOKE LINE. AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF FARTHER SOUTHEAST WITH AN INCH OR TWO FORECAST NEAR THE I-55 CORRIDOR. AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES THIS EVENING THE SNOW WILL BECOME DRIER IN NATURE WHICH WILL CREATE MORE OF A BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUE WITH GUST OVER 40 MPH. WHITEOUT TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NW OF THE IL RIVER. WILL BE MAKING SOME DECISIONS SOON AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES REGARDING HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT. PLAN TO HAVE UPDATED WSW AND ZFP OUT BY NOON.

HRRR has pockets of 60 MPH wind gusts near me later

but I hate when fgen precp is wasted as rain because of the intense band you may turn over before MLI airport..I think they are to far south at first

It's not real but notice how the HRRR keeps the IL river valley around PIA a tad warmer then the surrounding area...this cuts into the snow amounts this seems to corresponds where the larger bodies of water of the IL river widen into "lakes" It has happened in that model before when temps are borderline The snow min over downtown PIA is "lower peoria lake" . the larger one just above that is "upper peoria lake" and another in Putnam county up north is "senachwine lake"

That band (the most intense part at least) seems to be inching north....and by the time it changes to snow it may be north of you (QC)...just a tad more cold air and it would be snow already... I think, my area, Peoria will be upgraded to warning....heavy snow rates and wind gust to 50 MPH in deformation band this evening

looks like training over you and right up the Rock River watershed

Waterloo rainfall so far this fall including 2 inches the other day SINCE SEP 1 15.59 2.91 +12.68 DVNHYDROLOGY ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2018 ONGOING RIVER FLOODING LOOKS TO ONLY GET WORSE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FORECAST EACH DAY, AND INDICATIONS OF THE WET PATTERN PERSISTING INTO WEEK 2. LITTLE CAPACITY EXISTS TO DEAL WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 30 WHERE STREAM AND RIVERS ARE FULL AND SOILS ARE NEAR SATURATION. IN THE SHORTER TERM, THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN APPEARS HIGHEST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING, BE PREPARED FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL. AS DETAILS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BECOMES MORE CLEAR, WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS HAZARD AS WELL. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE SHAPING UP TO BE PRIME WINDOWS FOR FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES AT LEAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA.

the wet pattern has returned GFS has the firehouse back (PW vales >1.75 in) and dynamics pointed to western portions of the sub forum for the next 10 days at least WPC has 5 inches for Sourthn WI next 7 days

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 422 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2018 DAY 1 VALID 01Z SAT SEP 08 2018 - 12Z SAT SEP 08 2018 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHWEST OHIO... ..MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AS OF EARLY MORNING, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAD BECOME ORGANIZED WITHIN AN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACTING UPON TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI, ILLINOIS, AND INDIANA. A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL WAVE WILL MATURE HERE DURING THE SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD, WITH LOW PRESSURE PLACED TO THE REAR OF 70-90 KNOT JET STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWNSTREAM OF BOTH A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE GREAT PLAINS AND THE REMNANTS OF GORDON LIFTING FROM ARKANSAS. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GORDON WAS BECOMING INSEPARABLE FROM THE BAROCLINIC WAVE FORMING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS ANALYZED WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY / MISSOURI AND THEN BENT DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS - TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SHOW SOME SLIGHT DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAYTIME AS IT MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD. FOR DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE SIGNALED A PRONOUNCED HEAVY RAIN EVENT, AND THOSE TRENDS BECAME STRONGLY FOCUSED IN THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE. A SWATH OF AREAL AVERAGE 3 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS / FRONTOGENESIS TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM VERY NEAR SAINT LOUIS EASTWARD TO NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INDIANAPOLIS, AND CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTH SIDE OF CINCINNATI. THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER LIFT AND INFLOW IS COINCIDENT WITH THE VERY HEAVIEST HI-RES MODEL QPF SIGNAL - SOME SHOWING GREATER THAN 7 INCH AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY TODAY. THAT PARTICULAR AREA HAD RELATIVELY HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, BUT THE SWATH THEN CROSSES AREAS OF WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FARTHER NORTH INTO INDIANA LATER IN TIME. OVERALL, THE MODEL SIGNAL AND INGREDIENTS - WITH PW AS HIGH AS 2.30 INCHES AND INSTABILITY FEEDING UP OVER THE FRONT FROM THE INFLOW DIRECTION - SUPPORT A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE EXPECTED AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN UNUSUALLY HEAVY SIGNAL, WITH AROUND 6 TO 8 INCH 24-HOUR AMOUNTS FROM THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET, AND NOW THE 00Z NCEP HI-RES SUITE DEPICTING UNUSUAL COVERAGE OF 5 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS. WITH THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER LIFT BEING OFFSET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT, THESE HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE ON 3 TO 6 HOUR TIME SCALES. HOURLY RAIN RATES MAY NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY, BUT THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL YIELD PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, AND WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE BROAD ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 3 TO 6 INCHES. THIS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3-HR AND 6-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, AND COULD LEAD TO SOME HIGHER-END IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH RISK AREA. SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS SUCH AS NUMBER 0800 ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING - FOR MORE DETAILED AND UP TO DATE INFORMATION.

The CMC has Florence at 240 HR the same place it has Gordon at 24 HRS GFS stalled on the east coast

With luck this is possible IND records Maximum in 24 hours: 7.20 inches on Sept. 1, 2003. and timing wise it might be on the same calendar day if it happens unless it goes south

south he goes... At least it't not a winter storm models were jumping around hits IN into OH good.

that band is developing more south and rates decreasing..models weaken it...some push back north near UIN looks like 5-7 inches in a thin area between ILX and SPI. assuming radar isn't underestimating rates no reporting station Under that max amounts but DEC at 2.49 since 7am as of 3pm... with 2 inches the past 2 hours little rain have fallen from I-72 south

Note: medium range models now are more West with Florence and stall it out somewhere inland out east or southeast this may throw more precipitation back into the eastern Ohio Valley. Big wild card since it has been very wet all year plus Gordon coming first central il still getting it. That band hasn’t moved

Euro south at hr 48. Hits a brick wall in MO and moves almost due east .. like gfs

Central IL into IND getting it good with convergence band

12z NAM North shift Judging by what has falllen, current radar, and euro/Nam models my Best guess, just for fun,is max amounts of 15 inches near Danville IL

WPC about the same with precip amounts area wise as this morning dispite the north jog in the models and GFES mean Odd.. no north jog

EURO north again..not as far north as CMC everyone seems to be playing catch up withe heavy rains from that vortex with the more north path .Gordon may overlap this area later EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 152 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2018 DAY 1 VALID 1747Z THU SEP 06 2018 - 12Z FRI SEP 07 2018 1800 UTC UPDATE FFG VALUES HAVING LOWERED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MO INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO LSX..A MODERATE RISK AREA WAS ADDED FOR POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWERED FFG VALUE AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD...TOWARD 1200 UTC FRIDAY...THAT MAY AFFECT NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHWEST IL...WITH ADDITIONAL RUNOFF ISSUE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

3-4.5 inches now down NW of the IL river, ,4 inches on the northwest side of PIA a vortex is moving in from the west...HRRR weakens it but it looks robust ....could get interesting for me also 12z GFS a tad north with Gordon