Normandy

61 sustained is impressive for a system labeled 70 mph.

Correct me if I’m wrong but the waters Ophelia are in now we’re not really touched by Lee. Lee’s wake is well east no? In any event fantastic tropical transitioning going on, we are lucky to have it occur so close to land so it can be documented in radar

There has been a lot of discussion in whether or not this should be classified because it has a front attached to it. I’m wondering at what point would the NHC ignore this (let’s say if they find hurricane intensity winds eventually). Do you all think the NHC would ignore the frontal nature and just name it anyway for public awareness? Not saying that happens here but just as a discussion point

This is the most super interesting thing to me too. If El Niño is no longer a hurricane suppressant……then what are we looking at in terms of future hurricane seasons? What does a La Niña look like with record warmth? What does neutral look like?Would love met thoughts.

Now THIS is a setup that can crush yall

My point is this. My man said on 9/19 that the MDR is relaxing and implying that the MDR is shutting down. Models all show a very active MDR the next 8-10 days. This same line if thinking was used to assume the last four weeks would not happen when all seasonal models said it would. If modeling is showing an active MDR why imply El Niño is going to hamper it when there has been zero evidence of traditional El Niño impacts to hurricane development this year? You are right climo does begin to shut down the MDR but that goes without saying. it’ll be interesting the studies done on this season

Not sure what you are seeing. We have a major hurricane threat for the islands In next 8 days with an additional system behind it in the GFS. There are no signs of the MDR shutting down until early to mid October. People have gotta let the El Niño go lol it has lost. Clearly something else is going on that is allowing the basin to produce in an epic fashion despite this El Niño.

While there euro and GFS disagree on intensity, one thing they do agree on is the likelihood of an enhanced wind jet north of the center spreading into the mid Atlantic. Two things I’m watching: how quickly it organizes before approaching the coast and how far east does the low track.

An eastern shift here is the rare occurrence where it could yield to a stronger landfall further north. Nice little sleeper system here

The MDR is fools gold for landfalls this year. Lee was the closest chance we had. That being said this will continue train of cyclones kicking the Turkey shit out of El Niño

That’s nonsense thinking. That’s like saying there’s no agency in the world that could have prevented the 60,000 people who died in Katrina because the NHC doesn’t exist. Agencies give warnings and warnings lower risk of mass casualty. Don’t have a put your head in the sand and throw your hands up mentality.

I would not characterize them as infrequent anymore. They happen every year at this point and need to be tracked by an agency

Jesus man this storm is either gonna hit y’all and be the end of y’all. Or miss y’all and be the end of y’all. These models are wild!

Yea this is the weeds in here if you want science go to the tropical analysis thread

I see why he melted down lol as a causal observer y’all fools are crazy. everybody and they momma here want another 38, and y’all gaslighting people who are interested as if y’all aren’t is wild lol

Preach!

The mental gymnastics you all are performing with this storm is hilarious. You can tell it’s been a while for y’all. Enjoy this one!

The more I analyze the Euro and the current setting...Its solution makes sense and I see how it could play out. Currently The following things are happening: - Lee is a powerful major hurricane that is dealing with shear, but is also connected to a poleward outflow jet that is providing excellent divergence (thus the explosive convection). - Margot is a weak disorganized TS that is being substantially sheared by Lee's outflow jet. This shear will only strengthen tomorrow once Lee intensifies further. Convection will always keep Margot's low east because of said shear. This will increase the distance between them and is why the Euro solution occurs. Looking forward to the models runs later today.

Margot is the key to Lee impacting land. Models that have enough separation between the two systems threaten either Canada or NE. The timing of troughs will depend on which one that is, but if Margot is not close enough to draw this more east once it turns north I like this setup for landfall.

Models with the most degrees of separation between Margot and Lee are the ones that’s strike land. Not a surprising run there

Whats interesting is the lighting around the core shows a westward drift.

To answer your question without a weenie tag….you basically need a landfall south of jersey with the cane moving north. Once the cane is passing east and moving north cane conditions go out the window even if it passes close. Go see what the conditions were in NYC when the 1938 cane passed just east. TS winds (and that was the mother of NE canes)

Anybody got any insight into why recons is doing multiple rapid fire passes like they are? I’m not objecting because hey more data the better but this is a bit unusual no?

Alright gentlemen it’s that time. Let’s make our calls for what recon finds. I’m going with: winds: 144 kts flight level Pressure: 929 mbs

This storm is going to cost people memberships lol. It’s gonna get real crazy in the next few days and Godspeed to mods in the main thread lmao