SouthBuffaloSteve

Stupid work lol… should be camped out in a good spot here for the day. Think I’ll be spending a lot of time out back on the loading dock today lol.

Already 3” OTG Cheektowaga Walden near Harlem

2” hr rates along WS Cheektowaga boarder…

well they beat the living hell out of the fact about the inversion heights being low. maybe a fist half dud but a second half stud? H85 temps will plummet to roughly -15C through the night. This will establish sufficient over-water instability over the 37-40F (+3 to +4c) lakes and set the stage for accumulating snows in both the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas. Due to stronger winds tonight and strongest lift occurring just below the DGZ, the lake effect will get off to a slow start through the first half of the night before organizing after midnight. Off Lk Erie, a fairly well aligned 240-250 flow (minimal shear in lake convective layer) becomes established later tonight. Inversion heights top out 6-8kft and models have been very consistent with this. The strong winds and marginal instability initially will not promote a strong lake response through late this evening. Overnight, boundary layer flow diminishes some, and instability will continue to grow, allowing for a band to become better established. The lake effect snow may develop just south of Buffalo initially before moving northward late tonight. Given the slow start this evening, lowered snowfall amounts tonight to the 2-4 inch range with most of that falling after midnight. The plume of snow should generally remain locked in place through Thursday centered on the Buffalo Metro area, although it could oscillate a bit north and south from time to time. The inversion will lower to around 6kft as has been shown for many days in guidance as axis of upper trough shifts east of Lake Erie. Daytime accumulations within the heart of the band are forecast to average 4- 7". Latest guidance suggests inversion heights will rise to around 10K feet Thursday evening as a trough approaches and brings deeper moisture into play. This may allow the band to intensify again for a few hours Thursday evening over Buffalo with additional accumulations likely.

HRRR had 22" max in Cheektowaga ARW had a 24" bullseye right over my head!

Still like this time line. I think the action over the lake now is just the secondary cold front blowing through and this will settle into WNY. Looking back to CLE radar can see feeders struggling to develop with the winds. Winds start to die down in a couple hours, and the band sets up south and heads into the metro at sunrise. Feel timing is pushed back to more of an all day Thursday event now as the band looks to keep going throughout the daylight hours.

Winds are crazy tonight. Didn’t think that low really got strong enough to generate this much wind. Squall line earlier had some nice visuals!

Think many of the school closing are also hinged on other things going on as well. My kids school already closed yesterday for the remainder of the week due to not having enough subs to cover the number of teachers out... "sick"

LETS GO!!!

The new girl fixed it lol… thank god.

but... where did my thundersnow go? Looks like they removed "thunder also possible" from all zones now?

for shyts and giggles...

What are you thinking for timing on band tonight? General idea I am seeing doesn't really get the main band cranking until much closer to day break tomorrow? 3pm-5pm initial front and squall rolls through 9pm-12am secondary front and another squall broken lake plume settle in 2am-4am initial lake plume develops on WSW flow over central Erie and then slides north into or just south of the metro by 6am. 6am-6pm band will do it's magic somewhere in north / central Erie county.

Tempted to try and intercept the front and squall line when it comes through near sunset. Looks like after that we don’t see anything organizing LES until 10pm or even later…

12z runs locked into a very nice agreement! The original call from KBUF still looking spot on. Might not be our double whoppers with cheese meal but I'm still down! Let's get this show on the road!

Hmmm so NAM says put the brakes on tonight and tomorrow… and unload north of Buffalo tomorrow night? This 12z run should be interesting! lol

Sometimes when I sit here “patiently” waiting for each new hour frame to load I wonder if the models ever sit there watching me the same way?

Almost forgot the RGEM at 6! Looks so much better! Knew something was off with yesterday’s run. This gives a huge confidence boost to the NWS forecast with a park job right over the metro!

HRRR with a big paint brush tip this morning.

Morning NAM much less snowfall output and puts the northtowns back in play.

don't forget the ...thundersnow... ??? I'm planning to just get up super early Thursday and head out maybe around 3-4am and then go drive around for a bit until I need to be at work. I'll be holed up in Cheektowaga Harlem Walden area during the day Thursday, so should be in a good spot I'm thinking.

Pick your poison I guess? Of course the RGEM had to flip a little more north...One half of Erie County is getting 4-8" and the other half 10-16". NWS map looks fine! Might have to spread the bullseye a few miles south but not much. Pop the warnings for N Erie S Erie Genesee advisory for touching squares and let it rip!

Maybe they waiting to see if they wanna do LES Warnings or B… B… Blizzard Warnings???

HRRR goes SOUTH!

most 0z hires should run in next 90 minutes. waiting to see who caves and then issue around 10-11pm.