SouthBuffaloSteve

Will be interesting to see the loop with those double lows, but tidbits aint loading. Laying the tracks for the Syracuse guys on this one, choo choo! Awe, who are we kidding, we all know the taint will bust on up in there like usual!

Someone check me on these! From January 01 2011 - Present... the BUF office has issued a total of 7 blizzard warning "events" for the CWA (includes events east of lake ontario as well). I am missing one of the events! 1. January 2014 / Lake Effect / Impacted most of WNY, First Blizzard Warning for BUF Metro since 1993 / Ontario conditions verified but I don't believe an official blizzard warning was ever lifted for east of Onatrio. 2. March 2014 / Synoptic / Impacted most of upstate NY winds coming of Lake Ontario / Didn't really verify if I recall correctly. 3. 4. January 2018 / Lake Effect & Wind Driven / LOVE THIS STORM! / Busted forecast, warning was issued to late, deadly thruway pile up resulted, lake band formed and completely dissipated in less than 6 hours! I believe Ontario had a more foretasted band setup. 5. January 2019 / Lake Effect / Impacted both WNY and Tug 6. February 2019 / Lake Effect / Impacted just areas east of Lake Ontario 7. Feb 2020 / Lake Effect / Impacted around Watertown and well South of Buffalo. Believe there was blizzards warnings eventually off both lakes for this, don't believe Northern Erie was included however.

::clearing throat:: not ALL the models…

I honestly don’t think I can deal with another 5-10 years of this…

Sounds about right. Short window but lined up about as close as your going to get it to overlap a Bills home game. Ch2 model was showing that this afternoon. Had a band setup near the city around 3/4pm and then work it’s way south. Initially had the band right over the stadium for the 815 kickoff but had it well south by 930. Even if it just ends up being some lighter snows the winds will make it look nasty down in the bowl. This is going to be a real tight forecast for the NWS and local mets.

RGEM actually has a good look…

Yeah but we would have to trust the o line to hold the pocket for at least 4 seconds… that’s been a big ask this year.

KBUF not liking the lake effect setup this morning. It’s gonna dry out faster than my wife’s meatloaf… basically verbatim… There is also a potential for lake effect snows behind the front, but this risk has diminished some since it will dry out rather quickly behind the front. Rapidly dropping temperatures Monday afternoon will change lingering precipitation over to snow by Monday evening, while winds shift from the SW to the NW. Timing of the changeover suggests most accumulating snows would be east of the lakes, mainly across higher terrain where it will benefit from upsloping and cooler temperatures. This is likely to produce at least several inches of snow across these locations, along with gusty winds Monday night.

Dusting… yeah… I think it’s a little short of what we would call an official “trace”. Don’t be so picky dude… those dustings will add up eventually!

Nice I was looking at it and had two thoughts. 1. You can see our next system (Monday PM) getting spit out in the Northern Rockies on Sat/Sun but where do we trace it back too. Hard to tell with so many Lows floating around the NW Pacific Coast line if this is sliding down from Alaska or breaking off from somewhere else. Any ideas? 2. Notice when that central basin storm does break off it makes a rubber band like jolt, snapping the chalk line, to realign and in doing so pushes a nice chunk of arctic air our way. Such an interesting setup would be a shame for us to not cash in with something out of this short term setup.

GFS is not even showing a lake response off Erie after this system passes through Monday PM. Not buying it. RGEM and NAM will finally get to chime in on the 12z run tomorrow! Only trend on GFS that is concerning (if your hoping for a snow game Monday night) is how much it has slowed everything down. Here’s a loop of the past 5 runs all for 7pm Monday. At this rate you guys might just be getting blown over and soaked by the initial frontal passage for kickoff.

Bills Patriots played a super windy game back in 2008. Had to have the grounds crew hold the goal posts straight for FG attempts.

Am I recording this as hail or graupel? Or just “frozen precip that goes ping”?

Were we expecting a line of convection to form this afternoon? Was just looking out a window facing west and sky towards the lake is pitch black right now.

So omicron is already here and circulating through the general population as suspected. 2nd confirmed US case today. Fully vaxxed adult male who drove from Minnesota to a NYC anime convention Nov 19-21 (estimated 53,000 attendees at convention). (Event required masking and proof of vax to enter)… Became sick after returning home from convention. The news won’t shout out this next tidbit that he only had mild cold symptoms and was considered fully recovered before he was even diagnosed as having the omicron variant. To quote the vaxxed and healthy but suddenly covid positive LeBron James…

Patriots and Bills played a MNF game in Buffalo on Oct 29 2018… Bills starting QB… was checks notes… Derek Anderson?

Ok… and see just like that I’m good without the booster. He have the classic covid symptoms or what’s he suffering from the most?

So another case of “the vax works”… I’m still just so on the fence about the booster I don’t know why… the more stories I hear from people I know the more I want to get it, but then you hear those handful of crazy stories and you step back and say I’m good!

We haven’t talked about climate change in a bit… I’m just so happy for Marky. He got to stand up there and beat his chest how his plan lead Erie County to reducing green house emissions in 2020. And don’t even think about saying “ohhh it was because of the lockdowns and everyone staying home”. Nope, that was all because of Marky and his outstanding leadership in the face of adversity! And while this hasn’t hit the news just yet… here is an advanced copy of his new request to the county legislature to approve giving the Buffalo News $125,000 to print flyers and other educational materials on how dangerous climate change is to those living in Erie County. What a great partnership! Now don’t go and tell me about how the Buffalo News campaigned hard for a select few Democrats running for legislature seats in the most tightly contested districts. That has nothing to do with any of this. I’m certain the leaders of our county will do what’s best for all of us!

0z GFS for kickoff Monday night… discuss…

Almost another new daily record number of cases in Erie County. Just wait till the turkey day infections start poppin next couple of days! We’ll be in phase 2 by the weekend!

Hanging just north of me, took a quick lap up route 5 downtown, light mix when I drove through but roads had a slushy coating on them so must have came down good for a bit at some point.

There is SOME graupel mixed in… it’s not ALL rain lol.