SouthBuffaloSteve

Yeah that system is making me a bit nervous now. GFS says don’t worry but RGEM and ICON say panic. Few good blurbs from DP…

RGEM is handling the band very strange. Were anticipating stronger winds with this event but it only brings the band part of the way into Erie County. It's not just going to float over mid lake like the output is showing for some reason. Have to toss RGEM at this point. If your not factoring the inland extent and variable the higher winds will add this run is worthless.

ill save you the anticipation... I shouldn't have to note this is FAKE but I will...

Yeah this is crazy. I would not want to be a real met right now. How the heck are you calling this?

And the NAM says HELLO Niagara County! wtf…

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2010-2011&event=B Then a lake plume developed by early afternoon on a 260 flow and intensified by 3 pm or so as it rolled into the Buffalo Southtowns. The band then lifted north a bit on a 255 flow during the early evening and remained pretty much locked in place for the next 30 hours or so. None of the parameters for lake effect were outstanding...but they were all quite favorable for a near perfect early season lake effect plume off Erie...850 mb temps of -11c...a fairly high equilibrium level/inversion (l0k ft.)...very good moisture fields below the inversion, good snow growth, no shear and moderate winds. There was the typical thunder and lightning we see during early season events but nothing extreme. The wind fields finally weakened with increasing shear as a surface ridge built in by Friday morning (3rd)...disrupting and dissipating the band. Snowfall amounts were incredible within the band. A general 30 to 40 inches fell in about a five mile strip which ran from Lackawanna and southeast Buffalo...east northeast across northern West Seneca, south Cheektowaga, Depew and Lancaster over to Alden. Amounts dropped off steadily to the south...with about a foot in Orchard Park and less further south. The real story was the northern gradient though. Amounts dropped from two feet to a dusting in just a 3 or 4 mile distance! This was evident along north-south roads like Transit and Harlem. For example, no measurable snow fell at Main and Harlem, but two feet at Walden and Harlem. The Buffalo Airport was right at the cutoff...with 2 inches at its northwest comer and a foot at its southeast comer! Further west...no snow fell in Buffalo at North St., 4 inches at City Hall and a foot at HSBC arena...probably the most remarkable gradient ever seen across the city! This event had major impact...not only in the 300,000 or so people affected ...but from a major backup and shut down of the NYS Thruway from Exit 52 to 54...with hundreds stranded for almost 24 hours. Activity off Lake Ontario...usually fairly similar to Erie...did not materialize nearly as well this time. There was a broad area of snow showers and heavier snow...but single banding never did develop. Shear was much greater and temperatures a bit milder and marginal. A general 5 to 8 inches fell across areas where the snow persisted longest...one just north of Watertown over to Harrisville ...

Spot on. Max of 17" almost right over KBUF. Band is still going at this point but when you loop it does look like it's starting to putter out by this point. Almost looks like the activity during the day Thursday will roll in as more pulse waves rather than a solid training band with shorter bursts of snow. Really looking like Wednesday night till Thursday morning will be the prime action. Still looking good to me!

Yeah, I find the drastic drop in rates to be a bit much, but I keep thinking back to Dec 2010 that band locked in around this same area and snowfall rates only averaged about 1-1.5" but they just kept going all day. Duration will likely be the limiting OR rewarding factor in the jackpot zone. That small 2-3 mile wide sliver that convergences on the northern edge of the band will likely be the peak rates REALLY excited for the 0z runs of the high res tonight to see thoughts on daytime accumulations.

Gotta ride the fringe if you wanna win! I’m justttt far enough inland when you zoom in. Somewhere in here should be the jackpot zone.

BTV has a nice hit with the northern edge hugging downtown south for majority of event. QPF max around an inch through most of central Erie which would fit right into the 12-18” range with the 15/20 ratios. Can’t believe you guys are getting bummed already.

Overall some good agreement between the HRW models, NAM, HRRR. Don't really buy anything the FV3 says but through it in the mix. The RGEM has been very disappointing in my opinion. It is not picking up the wind impacts at all. With 35mph winds that band isnt just going to float into and around central erie county like it is showing. Feel the other models have taken that into better account with the winds and the arctic front initially whip lashing the band until the main plume sets up. Falls into line with BUFs call for around 9" max by day break Thursday.

12z HiRes mashup. These are all through 48 hours (7:00am Thursday) so just the first half of the event really. I'm still onboard!

12z HiRes looking pretty good for first half of event already. I’ll post the mashup once they all run through 48 hours.

They seem very confident in the band placement generally staying locked. The issue seems to be the snowfall rates are not showing to be overall intense especially during the day Thursday. Could translate to why the model precip output so far has not been that impressive. Still like the map they have with a 12-18 bullseye near the metro. Still shaping up to be a solid event! Leaving some room for a little overachieving

huh? not sure what nam your looking at, but this looks pretty good to me, 10" down by sunrise Thursday with a full day of snow still to go?

HiRes is still showing several hours of snow showers off Lake Erie tonight. Nothing major but 2-3" with the colder temps the fluff adds up. BUF is not interested at all only calling for scattered flurries. Seeing a few returns lighting up over Erie so who knows, maybe a little appetizer before the big one! These are through midday tomorrow only.

Maybe some sleeper flakes tonight? Noticed the HiRes was painting some tea kettled scattered lake effect NE of Erie tonight. Doesn’t look to be much more than an inch but the NAM actually wants to develop a band after midnight for a short time and was showing up to 3”.

Maybe we should go in on matching jackets so people know our intentions? Could get them stitched to say something like weather squad, I’m not a pedo I’m a weenie… yeah might need to work on the verbiage.

Need some photo op locations. Tired of filming in my little yard. Plus my neighbors all think I’m a weirdo when I’m walking around taking videos of clouds.

Maybe I sleep all day Wednesday so I can chase all night then head in to work Thursday AM? That 18-24 stripe is right over my head. Hard not getting excited right now!

These don’t seem crazy strong through like some previous storms. They are currently advertising 40mph gusts. Nov 2014 part one we had winds gusting to 40mph most of the storm being on the edge of the band. But still something to watch.

Figures my covid isolation period ends Wednesday night so back to work Thursday morning. No chasing for me on this one.

When the watch set my phone off…

FWIW… BTV locks in the band just to the south of the metro.