SouthBuffaloSteve

Ripping here right now!

No you can drive out onto goat island with your car. There are two bridges that cross over to it. It is pretty railed up so at least in my opinion it would be hard to accidentally drive into the river there…

Was just about to post about it. I really wanna know how the car got in there in the first place. Some crazy videos, car got wedged on something less than 100 ft from the brink.

Here we go!

Nothing quite like the feel of standing on the edge of the lake in one of these wind storms. Watching 15’ waves smashing over the break wall just off in the distance. The howling of the gusts. Watching the lake level inch higher and higher as the Seiche effect sets in. Closest thing I’ll ever experience to intercepting a hurricane landfall so that’s why I enjoy it.

Anyone else thinking WNY will overachieve again today? NWS does not seem interested at all with the snows east of Lake Erie. Upstream radar just east of Detroit is starting to look really juicy and heading our way. Mike C even highlighted this morning he was watching a band of more intense snows forming as the synoptic snow showers move away. HRRR is even picking it up now with a very narrow bullseye off Erie this afternoon!

lol you getting the NWS to issue a special public information statement just for you!

7.7" 2 Miles WNW of West Seneca? Something aint right here! Did someone send a report from their old home location? PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1100 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2021 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...NEW YORK... ...ERIE COUNTY... 2 WNW WEST SENECA 7.7 IN 1041 PM 12/07 COCORAHS 3 SE WEST SENECA 1.1 IN 0715 PM 12/07 NWS EMPLOYEE SPRINGVILLE 5NE 0.7 IN 0700 PM 12/07 COOP

In general yes, but trying to see how much of an impact the topo has on these WSW flow events, if any at all. Sometimes the bands will lock into the basin and end up with the highest totals. But many times yes this is the cutoff line.

Erie looks done for the night. Nice little snowfall event for you guys. Will be interesting to see the snowfall reports as the band didn't really push to far inland or northward. Had two small crop dusters roll through here and that was it. Was a very sharp cutoff on the northern edge of that band most of the night right along 20A. Lined it up next to the topo map and makes me wonder with the conditions we saw today (lighter steering winds) the basin acts to suppress precip until it hits the rise in the elevation to the north and east.

It’s starting to move north again now but looks like it’s got a little fizzle fizzle going on.

These were the 0z Monday runs out through 48 hours ending at 7pm tonight. RGEM was the closest of the bunch for the snow in Southern Erie, but was more conservative vs the actual totals in Chautauqua overnight (10” around Jamestown area).

Nice! Talk about a blown forecast on this lake band tonight. KBUF missed it… Mesos missed… that’s why as frustrating as it can be with the lack of snow, the surprise events are great. Went from less than an inch to a what’s looking like a warning level snowfall.

So………. The Bandits are 1-0……

Looking pretty sparse to me. Few small cellular pulses flaring up but quite honestly the on off snow bursts are good enough in my opinion. Activity off Huron has really picked up last hour maybe a signal Erie will do the same?

Yeah probably not a good idea to be sitting on bar stools in these winds…

Not much off Erie but some variance on where the Ontario band sits the longest. Be interesting to track and verify this with the post storm total map.

Warning is for the down slope wind event tonight. Winds will likely be higher on this event than for the SW wind even with the cold front passage on Monday. Warning would likely downgrade to an advisory as well after the wind change. Nice blurb from BUF AFD on tonight's event... The strong wind potential will come in two phases. First, a strong southerly low level jet will cross the region tonight, setting the stage for strong downslope winds. The low level jet reaches the western Southern Tier by this evening, with 60-70 knots just above the ridge tops. Forecast soundings suggest a stable layer near the top of the terrain barrier with a strong low level inversion in place. This will set the stage for a downslope wind event, with stable flow accelerating down the lee slopes of the Chautauqua Ridge. The magnitude of the low level jet and thermal structure suggest a good potential for gusts to near 65 mph near the Lake Erie shore and northward facing slopes of western Chautauqua and southern Erie counties. As cool as a snow game would be I'll take passing snow showers and a stiff wind over the blizzard conditions that were showing as a possibility a few days ago.

Headed out to no mans land to do the annual Christmas tree chop a rooni! Great drive out 20A watching some lake cloud bands roll along. Tree farm was great as always, best trees are the nice hike to the upper hill. Do this the first Saturday in December every year… been a long time since we had to hike in the snow and this is up on a hill in Wyoming County. Fell like our winters now are compressed to late December through late February.

That really was our last good stretch of winter that I can remember. Erie PA also had that monster lake effect dump Christmas week in 2017. And then we went right into January 2018 with a lake effect blizzard in the metro. Scrolling through some pics also seeing Lake Erie frozen as far out as I could see. Oh and Ice Jams on Caz creek. Had two of those that January. Was a “real” winter that year even if most of the snow stayed south of BUF.

That forecast busted horribly for the metro. 18-24” call for South Buffalo… we got a big fat nothing burger!

Canadian keeps trying to highlight this idea but I’m thinking winds will be too light to get anything of significance kicking. May see a band hang over the lake and try and throw some snow showers our way. Something to watch at least.

SPOOTS!

Crypto Guys… What’s going on? Is this the big rug pull in the middle of the night? If this don’t bounce back people gonna be freaking in the morning. Lot of people buying calling this the big dip. I’d be nervous right the minute.

That stinks. That’s why I told my wife I don’t want any more pets sucks when they go.