SouthBuffaloSteve

Nasty snow squall rolling in off Lake Huron. Lots of lightning.

Yawn fest around here next week. Canadian has been holding idea of a marginal LES setup the week after Thanksgiving, so some scraps to keep me entertained. Good Luck to the LO folks next few days.

Found some old videos from Nov 2014 Storm. Trimmed a few of them in chronological order so you can live through the storm in 3 minutes.

The hype is real! Love how a coastal storm in late November is a “climate crisis”

what do you use to edit your videos. I actually just found a memory card with all my nov 14 videos want to trim and splice a few of them together. looking for just something basic that doesn't put a big watermark on them.

We'll get another one again someday... 7 years ago we were getting ready for this wild ride! ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDING THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH PRODUCING LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.* IMPACTS...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT OR NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL AT TIMES WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. SOME ROADS MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPASSABLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADS. THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY FROM SILVER CREEK TO BATAVIA

What would we consider today's conditions to show? Was inside most of day but thought I saw some sunny breaks? KBUF reported mostly cloudy all day. Tonight KBUF is running 3-5 degrees too warm per the map. Looking back to this weekend the 13/14 and 14/15 both saw days with thicker clouds, lake effect bands and general precip falling which should eliminate any UHI. While not as extreme of a variance KBUF was still the warmest spot overnight on those days by 1 - 1.5 degrees. On sunny days 2-3 degrees of UHI could be a possibility (yes? no?) but seeing as KBUF is ALWAYS the warmest location EVERY overnight, I really feel the sensor calibration is off by 1-2 degrees. The link tombo posted with those verification scores also suggests a similar margin of error possible with the KBUF sensor. Is it a hard ask for the NWS to do a calibration check/test? After two failed calibrations at Albany sounds like they did a full tune up of the temp sensor site. Don't forget KBUF had the calibration issue at the end of last summer so this would be strike two on the site. Have to appreciate that at least the Albany office is looking into their sensor errors, getting them corrected, and noting it in a Public Info Statement.

Had a rather scary experience at work yesterday. One of the employees passed out cold while working. Went fully unresponsive, got rushed to the hospital. She came to at the hospital but the doctors couldn't find anything medically wrong except a positive covid test. Mid 50s rather healthy and fit individual said they felt a little tired that morning then everything just suddenly went fuzzy and next thing they knew they were laying in a hospital bed. They woke up with severe symptoms fever, coughing, no taste or smell, extreme body pains and aches said it came on in what seemed like the blink of an eye. They were not vaccinated...

crap, totally forgot about that, heard it was a pretty neat online class. see there is another one on Dec 1, got to put a reminder on that one for myself!

Snow mixing in here now more as well. Perfect late fall early winter day. Wintery weather… Bills whooping the Jets… got a Beef Roast simmering in the oven. Things just feel right today!

Unofficial measurement of 1.5” Harlem Walden area in Cheektowaga.

Looks like the intense part of the band over mid lake might just get shoved due east and onshore towards you rather than train up in BUF. Might be over before it started up my way.

Mainly rain they said… huge wet flakes!

Well it’s starting to accumulate on pavement now. Already a healthy coating on other surfaces…

Band is starting to develop a very intense core mid lake. Convection is even starting to pop lightning.

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 833 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 NYZ001-002-010>012-085-131430- Southern Erie-Wyoming-Orleans-Genesee-Niagara-Northern Erie- 833 AM EST Sat Nov 13 2021 ...A BAND OF WET LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WYOMING...NORTHERN ERIE...NIAGARA...WESTERN ORLEANS AND WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES... A band of moderate to heavy, wet lake effect snow will continue over much of the Buffalo Metro area this morning. Wet snow will begin to accumulate on grass, and roads may also become slushy at times where the snow is falling the heaviest. The band of lake effect snow is expected to remain nearly stationary this morning before moving south of Buffalo this afternoon. This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57 and 48A.

More snow than rain now in Cheektowaga. Turning from grapuel to big wet flakes. Starting to stick on grass and other non pavement surfaces…

So were just gonna toss all the 0z meso runs tonight... right???

Not yet… another front working through with a line of showers and couple storms. Behind that should start to see the main lake effect band fire up in another couple hours.

Agreed! The 0z meso runs all took a bit of an odd turn and have this more of a W wind event now it seems. General idea I am summing up has band form into Ontario on a SSW flow between 12am-4am. Band intensifies as it sinks south into north side of Buffalo from 4am-8am. Few models show a line of strong convection within the band around 10am right through the metro. By 2pm-6pm the band is sinking south and sets up overnight across the southern tier. Temps will be so close. I think everyone will see flakes at some point in the band Saturday, and a few areas might pick up a slushy inch. Will really depend on the rate intensity and if the band can stall out anywhere for a little while to start actually let the flakes build up enough to cool and stick. Working Saturday so no chasing for me, but the band looks like it will return back up to metro area sometime on Sunday, might have to check that out.

If he would have just stayed posted up at one spot "protecting it" everything would have been fine. Things came unraveled once he tried moving to a new location and cut right through the gathering of protesters. To me that is showing intent of wanting to stir the pot for a reaction. Video seems to show he did ultimately act in self defense, but he put himself in a really bad place with his actions leading up to the shooting.

HRDPS for Saturday morning… pretty good agreement the band will be extremely strong despite P Type First half of Saturday.

BUF updated AFD: Friday night and Saturday the vertically stacked low will gradually push eastward with its axis reaching western Quebec and western New England by early Saturday evening. Its approach will bring in cooler air aloft, enough so to produce lake effect precipitation. Consensus 850mb temperatures drop to -5c across Lake Erie by 12Z Saturday. SSW flow will direct most of the lake effect rain showers across Canada and far eastern portions of Niagara and Erie counties Friday night. A few rain or snow showers are possible across the rest of Western New York, but any of these would be on the light side. Fairly good model agreement that the stacked low and a strong embedded shortwave will move across the area on Saturday. This will provide moisture which will enhance lake effect precipitation, and will also produce rain or snow showers further inland from the lakes due to the shortwave. Flow will shift to the southwest which will direct what should be a well developed band across the Buffalo metro area on Saturday. Still a bit too warm aloft to support lake effect snow, although wet snow or graupel could mix in times. Also added a mention of thunder with this band. A less developed band will develop off Lake Ontario and move across the St Lawrence and then Jefferson County. Further inland it won`t have to be quite as cold aloft to support snow, with rain or snow showers possible with the shortwave. Any accumulation would be minimal with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. Models suggest winds will shift to the WSW Saturday night in the wake of the shortwave. Precipitation will once again become mostly lake effect, with bands likely to be centered across southern Erie county and across the Tug Hill. Slightly cooler 850mb temps around -6c could support some snow accumulation, especially across higher terrain. Fairly high confidence there will be lake effect bands, but low confidence in precipitation type due to the marginal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Bands of lake effect precipitation will start this period, with a predominately southwest flow across the Eastern Great Lakes. This will highlight precipitation along the Lake Erie shoreline, and inland across the northern Niagara Frontier, as well as towards the northern Tug Hill Sunday. Thermal profiles are marginal for snow, with 850 hPa temperatures around -5 to -7C at periods start. A shortwave from the northern Rockies will sharpen the east coast mid level trough Sunday night and into Monday. Backing surface winds will send lake precipitation northward...possibly entirely into Canada by Monday morning, while all along more widespread synoptic precipitation spreads over the region with the approaching shortwave. Again thermal profiles are marginal for snow on Monday...and not until the shortwave passes and flow becomes more northwesterly later Monday and into Tuesday that temperatures aloft will cool sufficiently for snow to be the predominate precipitation type. By this time, the lake effect event will be winding down.

Going to be close for some areas away from the lake and higher up. Either way should be fun tracking what will likely be our first single dominant band setup of the season. 24 hour RGEM loop shows a nice dancing band Saturday into Sunday here. Next few days could be interesting. I'll be interested in checking the verification of the mesos on band placement and precip output to see whose hot and whose not for the season.

Just for fun…