SouthBuffaloSteve

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Local stations are already turning up the hype notch! Seems rather irresponsible in my opinion for a legit media outlet to be issuing a forecast like this 8 days out. .

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Medium range guidance continues to be in poor agreement by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with the timing and track of the next significant trough. The GFS is a solid 2 days faster in swinging the trough and cold air into the Great Lakes, and would have implications with lake effect potential. Meanwhile, the 12Z ECMWF/GEM and ECMWF ensemble mean is far slower, allowing for a significant warm-up and rain event by the middle of next week, with the cold air remaining over the Northern Plains. Given the recent pattern, have once again leaned very heavily towards the ECWMF/GEM consensus for the long term today. .

Decent lake response already setting up. Anyone else notice that radar gif don’t seem to work on here anymore? Never had an issue until a few days ago.

Nice sunset tonight behind the storm line. .

Yeah no go on any spouts but got some nice shots! Did you happen to catch the sunset through the storm line? I’ll post a few more pics later... .

Do you remember what year we had the snow storm on Halloween? I can vividly remember trick or treating in West Seneca as a kid in heavy snow the one year had to be early 90s just can’t remember which year it was. .

Pretty impressive squall line firing up over the lake. Marine Weather Statement notes likely waterspouts in this this line.

Dang! Knew I should have went down to spout watch! Nice waterspout just off shore from downtown. .

Looks like this will be the last shot coming on shore over the next hour. Winds are quickly turning WNW near Long Point. Models noted a brief cellular band into the metro... to quick of an event to really verify. .

Pretty decent lake response off Erie already. In and out of some heavy downpours with these cells. Meh... Hmm what the heck can’t seem to get these GIFs uploading into animation today.

Firing up!

Trying to stay reserved so early into the season. Certainly looks interesting but the details are all over the place. I will however get a TINY bit excited that the GFS has held the idea our first possible LES event for two consecutive runs now today. Bring this out of fantasy range and then it’s game on! .

Front load the Bills home games early in the season they said... No one wants to travel to Buffalo for a snow game in December they said... GFS fantasy land says think again... Maybe... ??? .

Couldn’t ask for a nicer October day. Just perfect out between those two impressive storm systems. .

We actually had one of our most extreme temp swings this past winter. Started the day at midnight at 59* by 8am temp was below freezing with lake effects bands forming. By night time we were in the teens. Erie was pretty much shut off at this point but Oswego area saw several hours of blizzard conditions from the lake effect setup. NWS actually classified this storm as a bomb as it dropped over 24mb in 24 hours. .

Been watching this for a few days now... Super Typhoon Hagibis is now up to a comparable Cat 5 storm curving toward Japan. Strong model agreement the storm will graze Japan and then get pulled up toward Alaska. General idea here is the storm will get pulled up the Asian cost and possibly bomb back out in the Bering Straight. Details start to diverge here but overall thought is the storm gets caught up and just spins out for a week plus time. As this is going on the storm pumps up the western ridge and starts digging a trough south and east into the upper lakes. Not looking at the details yet but the overall idea holds some needing to watch. Nice easy to read tidbit I saw... .

Might be cherry picking on this one but whatever early season hopes and dreams! .

Nice crisp night out there! Such a relief from the constant damp dreary mist that has been hanging over for us for days. Think this will be one of the earlier area wide frost freezes we have had in a few years. Seeing some nice looks in the 8-10 day range.

Saw new thread as I was posting this to old one. Lot of talk about the most epic Buffalo storms. Here’s a list with some of the more less know storms. We all know the recent epic storms Nov 14, Dec 10, Oct 06, Dec 01, Nov 2000, Dec 95, Jan 85... But the history of lake storms beyond that is pretty limited in information accessibility. Here’s some more notable ones that I think would fall into the epic classifications... Jan 99 airport recorded 13 consecutive days of lake effect snow dropping 60.2” Jan 82 airport had 28.8” in just over 24 hours. 50mph winds and -60 wind chills. Dec 76 3 day storm totals ranged from 38.8” at the airport to 50-60” from South Buffalo to Hamburg. Hamburg reported 48” during the first 36 hour storm. Nov 51 storm totals of 18” from NT to Lockport and 24”+ in Hamburg. Only on list for this factoid. Storm was so electrified lightning hit a factory downtown blowing apart its brick chimney. Dec 45 3 day storm total of 36.6” at the airport. 68” in Lackawanna and 71” in Lancaster. Dec 37 3 day totals ranged from 12” in South Buffalo to 36”+ over North Buffalo and Amherst. Storm also brought high winds that piled drifts 10-15’. Red Cross had to snowshoe food and supplies to hundreds trapped in their homes in the north towns. Oct 30 2 day snow totals of 21” in South Buffalo to 48” in Angola. Dec 27 24 hour storm dropped 13” in the city with 36”-48” from East Aurora to Hamburg.

Do you mean Dec 1945? 3 day storm total of 36.6” at the airport. 68” in Lackawanna and 71” in Lancaster? We all know the recent epic storms Nov 14, Dec 10, Oct 06, Dec 01, Nov 2000, Dec 95, Jan 85... But the history of lake storms beyond that is pretty limited in information accessibility. Here’s some more notable ones that I think would fall into the epic classifications... Jan 99 airport recorded 13 consecutive days of lake effect snow dropping 60.2” Jan 82 airport had 28.8” in just over 24 hours. 50mph winds and -60 wind chills. Dec 76 3 day storm totals ranged from 38.8” at the airport to 50-60” from South Buffalo to Hamburg. Hamburg reported 48” during the first 36 hour storm. Nov 51 storm totals of 18” from NT to Lockport and 24”+ in Hamburg. Only on list for this factoid. Storm was so electrified lightning hit a factory downtown blowing apart its brick chimney. Dec 45 I mentioned above. Dec 37 3 day totals ranged from 12” in South Buffalo to 36”+ over North Buffalo and Amherst. Storm also brought high winds that piled drifts 10-15’. Red Cross had to snowshoe food and supplies to hundreds trapped in their homes in the north towns. Oct 30 2 day snow totals of 21” in South Buffalo to 48” in Angola. Dec 27 24 hour storm dropped 13” in the city with 36”-48” from East Aurora to Hamburg. .

Seriously... if any of the Buffalo guys don’t have this book YOU ARE MISSING OUT! In fact Paul just put the book 50% off on his eBay store $9.95! .

Why do I see this whole area of convection just dry up before it gets to us... .

Surprised to see a flood watch pop up for tonight! Looks like another stormy night on tap! Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, Buffalo, and Batavia 738 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for a portion of western New York... including the following counties...Genesee...Monroe... Niagara...Northern Erie and Orleans. * Through Thursday morning. * Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected overnight through Thursday morning over western New York. Portions of the area already have received heavy rainfall on Wednesday morning, and additional localized rainfall of 1 to 2 inches can be expected through Thursday morning. * Urban areas around Buffalo, Niagara Falls, Batavia, and Rochester will be especially susceptible to flooding. .

Like excessive cow farts have been known to cause wobbles .