SouthBuffaloSteve

Looks like that’s a wrap folks! Just shy of 2” here from the 2nd round. 5.9” storm total. .

Back to heavy snow here. Wow! I could understand a stall but there is clearly a slight northward jog going on right now! Lake Effect at its best right now! .

Wow yeah it sure does! That’s a classic spot for bands to stall out... southern half of West Seneca, OP, Hamburg, EA... Very interesting!!!! .

Lot of activity blossoming back over the central part of the lake. That little area over southern Ontario looks like it may pickup another smaller band to bring through? This is what the HRRR was showing! And where are the Roc guys? Looks like part of the band might make it all the way to the western burbs there. .

Wow winds shifted from 230 to 260 in 10 minutes. .

Check out the returns just lighting up in the heart of that band right now. Has to be 3”/he rates in there with thunder snow. .

Surprised BUF hasn’t issued something yet. Even a SWS. Even if it doesn’t lock in the entire metro is gonna get whacked here for a good 2 hours. What’s our over under on them popping a snow squall warning? .

This should be fun. Dual bands lining up on a SW flow... Just me guessing here we see the southern band slow down just a bit then explode over the metro in the next hour and get shoved on shore pretty quickly. Northern band is more narrow moderate snow sets up around the city and does a more slow sink south. .

Agreed! Him and Steve McLaughlin were best 2 mets BUF have had for lake effect forecasting. Wish Steve posted weather blurbs on social media to follow these days. .

Just want to throw this out to see how it verifies time wise. HRRR for the past few runs has been very consistent in forming a second band on a WSW flow behind the cold front pushing that band onshore. Nothing crazy and that one drops south in 1-2 hours as well but could be more impactful for the PM commute and add a little icing to our totals on the south side of the metro. .

I think he misses his days of lake effect tracking. He’s been posting updates all morning. .

Great view there! Looks like new band organizing. Just hope it doesn’t swing to far south while it’s still over the lake and miss us. .

Hard to tell what it’s trying to do. It’s losing the nice feed it had extending out past Long Point and the radar returns are really starting to lower over Niagara’s County. Maybe shear? Just saw 4 post the current wind speed map and looks like strong SSW winds could be tearing it apart for a while? .

Maybe they got a little to excited over all the powder on their board this morning? .

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Usually these north sweeping bands that get picked up by a front on their trip back south are really impressive but only last 30-45 minutes. BUF AFD- The band of snow will make it all the way north to Grand island and central Niagara/western Orleans counties for a few hours late morning and midday. The clipper cold front will then capture the band, and force it to move quickly back to the southeast and across the Buffalo Metro area through mid afternoon. This south/east moving band will be more intense than the morning band, given the stronger thermodynamics and added boost of convergence from the cold front. It will be moving fast however, only lasting an hour or two at most for any one location. Depending on the timing I might go down and camp out on the waterfront for the return pass. .

I always use to say that but that was the one model that hit lasts week mixing mess the best. Had great placement, pretty close on the amounts, and was one of the only models to show the higher amount being well inland. At this point all the meso are the same. Band hangs out north of the north towns through lunch time then plows back through the city sometime between 1pm and 3pm. Afternoon commute might be saved with the timing. .

Looks like it’s gonna lock in now North Buffalo, Tonawanda, out to Amherst. A Northtowns special maybe? Southward shift isn’t expected until around noon time. .

4.0” on the button here at 8am. This is the type of snow that dreams are made of... Pure powder! Could clear my driving with a leaf blower. Took a core off my board to see what these ratios ended up being. Man if someone gets this band to stall for a few hours their going to see warning amounts without a doubt! Nothing better than the color the sky turns when your on the fringe of one of these bands at sunrise! 40mph+ gusts with this type of snow is going to be a huge problem later today. .

Ripping out there this morning! Wish I would have woke up a little earlier. Does look like the band is moving north to fast and is going to end up on the north side of the metro by 8am. .

I’ll take it. Solid 6 hours on that for me in the heavier parts of the band. .

Well one more set of runs soon and then it’s go time. Like the forecast call so far from BUF. Should be an easy 3-5” everyone in metro to get in. Maybe a spotty 6” out near the airport. I think the biggest impact will be the band plowing back south in the afternoon. Wouldn’t be surprised to see that brief burst be 3”/hr+ rates. Also concerning are the winds that will come along with the bands return. Gusts are now up to almost 50 mph along the shoreline. I think there will likely be a 30-60 minute time frame of blizzard like conditions around the metro. Could also see BUF throwing up a snow squall warning for the trip south to cover this brief but impactful band. BUF AFD- The band may be briefly strong during the midday/full fetch time period with aided lift from the upper level trough. The mobility of the band will limit total snow amounts, but it`s important not to underestimate the impact a brief intense snow band can have. .

It does. Cleveland radar is pretty much blind for most lake effect once it’s onshore into NW PA. Need to look at Buffalo radar. After the whole Erie PA snow gate scandal of 2017 the Buffalo radar angle was lowered to try and better capture lake effect bands over that area. .

I don’t think they tweak the hour by hour runs at all as you’ll hear the say pretty often that they think the model is off because of this or that... If they could add their own input they would. Not sure about the specifics but I know back in the day 4 use to mention using the RPM as the data set for their graphics. Now they just refer to it as their in house model. It would make sense as the RPM runs off the ARW which had similar output on the 12z run. The map Todd used was not the hi res output they showed earlier in the day so in my opinion his map could be more user input adjusted vs just straight computer output. .