SouthBuffaloSteve

NAMed...

Just read up on that one in the blizzard book. Sounds like a similar type storm to what we could see. Huge dump of synoptic snow from Ohio up through WNY. Author stated Lake Erie was mainly open for that storm and a SW flow off the lake lead to significant enhancement of the snow over WNY. 28” at KBUF over a 48 hour period. 19.4” of that fell in 24 hours and I believe still holds the #10 spot for most snowfall in 24 hours. Highest synoptic storm on the list. As the storm pulled away we saw a lengthy period of strong NW winds drifting the huge snowfall. 11 people died in Buffalo during that storm.

BW... think we should start a new thread ahead of the 0z running? Looks like this will be storm of the season for most of us...

Nah... GFS overdoing the lake enhanced wrap around for BUF like it has done for every one of the events this year. 6” from hour 66-72, not happening. Worst storm track possible for us... Synoptic stays west and north... Lake effect sets up well south. Bet I’ll still be looking at grass by 12z Friday.

Go home GFS... Your drunk! Hobblin’ and Wobblin’ like a frat boy trying to make it back to campus...

The locals aren’t wasting any time trying to hype up next weeks storm already!

Talk of a... blizzard... 7 days out?

No point in getting your hopes up this far out... GFS has put that storm anywhere from Chicago to off the Maine coast today. $5 the 0z has it cutting up through Michigan.

Really wish we would have had some more spotter recording during that storm in terms of rates and more short term snowfall amounts like the chart. Still mad I wrote that first night off as the band looked to be sinking south and went to bed only to wake up to over 36” in a 6-7 hour period. Considering the amount of compaction under that much snowfall rates had to peak over 8”/hr. Only real record type report I remember seeing was the 65” in 24 hours in South Cheektowaga which I’m not even sure was considered official but would say it coincided with what I was able to estimate at my location a few miles south west of there. Debated trying to climb my way to my board in the backyard but when I dropped a yardstick into the middle of the driveway and it just disappeared I knew any sort of offical measuring wasn’t going to happen so instead just started shoveling... and shoveling... and shoveling some more. Ahh memory lane...

That map needs just a little tweak... There we go... Much better!

So weird... Should be right under something falling from the sky but only seeing a few flurries. Wonder why the radar looks so good but there’s no precip making it to the ground?

WTF! Just woke up to my screen door slamming against the house. Went outside and the winds are just howling. Checked the radar and bam! Nice... oh wait we’re at 36*... Love the AFD... Upstream radars showing a narrow swath of snow, mixed with a bit of rain sliding toward the area. We expect to see this area of snow(rain?) move into western New York by about midnight or so.

Kept wondering where this Thursday night 2-4” was coming from as the storm is pulling away and a NW flow was setting up. This could be cool... While the main area of snow will move out of the region...there will be a pair of cold fronts that could trigger localized snow squalls during the afternoon. The first front will push south across the western counties during the afternoon. Many of the higher resolution guidance packages suggest that some organized snow squalls will break out along and ahead of this first boundary...and given a steepening of the lapse rates below 10k ft...cannot argue against this reasoning. I do take issue with some referring to this as the true arctic front though...as there will clearly be a second boundary push south during the early evening. H925 temps will sharply drop off in the wake of this second boundary...and THIS is when I would think that any squalls would be present. There is little baroclinicity with the first boundary...but will adhere to the consensus of the mesoscale models and include some heavy snow and squally weather with the first as well. Before leaving this vein...it would not be out of the question that localized forcing from either boundary could support some thunder and lightning with the heavier squalls. The level of -10c is high enough to allow for a mixed phase layer that would support graupel...and with a convective depth of roughly 10k ft...electrification is not out of the question.

BUF AFD... The “sweet spot”... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... After a day of uneventful weather...our attention will now be focused on a couple of shortwaves digging across the Upper Rio Grande Valley. The resulting cyclogenesis over Texas will yield an area of low pressure that will track from the Lower Mississippi to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys early tonight...then to Pennsylvania by late tonight. The track of the storm system...being just a few (latitudinal) degrees to our south...will place our region in the `sweet` spot for widespread accumulating snow.

wow just got slammed with a huge burst of graupel. Almost an inch in 20 minutes.

Pretty nice looking band trying to setup into metro BUF at the moment.

Just sitting here waiting for those bands that will probably fizzle out... .

Nice bands coming in off Erie. With the temps that’s gonna be pure fluff!

It’s like the perfect winter day out there right now... Fresh 6” snowpack, sun trying to peak through the clouds, some light fluffy flurries coming down, no wind, not super cold... Kids are having a blast finally having some snow to play in. Hopefully things will turn for us rest of February so we can get some more days like this.

Jumping the gun a little...

Freezing Drizzle here at the moment. Only saw a brief mix of sleet earlier but probably picked up 1/10” of ice this evening. Not much in the way of new precip filling in south of the city so might be high and dry now here for a while.

Just not feeling that 6-8” call for us in far WNY tomorrow...

Coming down nicely here! Big slug of moisture moving in. Closing in on an inch already with nice fluff bombs dropping.

And.... changeover to rain on the backside... my 2” of fluff is down to a half inch of slush... .

Not getting pounded per day here but just a beautiful snowfall the past 2 hours. HUUUUUGE flakes. Eyeballing 2” of fluff here at work this morning... .