SouthBuffaloSteve

BTV likes the idea as well! Latest high resolution guidance also suggests a Georgian Bay band will meander through the area between Buffalo and Rochester, possibly extending down into the western Finger Lakes. This may drop a few inches locally on Thursday if the band is able to remain in one location for a few hours. .

Nice share BW, great discussion. Somethings gotta give if we’re ever gonna salvage this winter. Was looking back to this time last year and looks like we were in the same boat with a hit and miss start to winter. Pattern started to swing this week last year with some synoptic storms, much like we are seeing this week this year as well. Then the GFS popped this fantasy multi day lake effect blizzard at 360 hours. We laughed it off as the models were sucking just as bad last year. Ended up verifying almost perfectly. We’re overdue for a long range fantasy storm to lock in and verify. Nothings been sticking run to run yet but getting some interesting looks. Last run try’s to develop a lake effect event. Lake Erie is at 38, 4 degrees above average. The western basin still has a nice pool of 40 degree plus in place. Will take a hit this weekend for sure but nice to still have the lake in play again going into late January. .

Ok... Who broke the NAM... .

Back to back runs GFS brings that slug of freezing rain closer our way... .

RGEM is only one I’m seeing intensify that blob like that over Erie. Rest are just showing some stray streamers passing through. Guess it’ll depend how much the lake can fire that disturbance up. .

Well we can all agree on one thing... This weekend is gonna be a good old fashion wash out! .

Nah... The D fell asleep in the 2nd half. Rule of thumb all season has been score 17+ and the D should be able to hold them them to... Played way to conservative in the 4th... .

Yes! Time for the locals to start the dart throwing contest! Props to Mr. Santos he gets the “sticking yer neck out there” award! Nice 3-5” zone from northern Buffalo metro to the western Rochester burbs. Also showing we will be over to all snow by 8am Saturday... yikes... Good Luck Channel 4! .

You can look at the total snow... the average temperature... but what about combining them and looking at how we trend for days with snow on the ground. I think this is a better gauge on how well we remember a certain winter or period of winters. Growing up in the 90s it seemed like we had awesome winters and I can remember more years than not that we would have snow on the ground for long periods. Building snow forts and sled hills off the garage roof that stayed for weeks not a weekend. Anyways found these on the BUF climate page and I think they actually back up this idea... Average Days with 1” over this period was 71.2 days. Big thing that stands out here in the consistency of 20 straight seasons from 1990-2010 where every season had 50+ days. Now notice the last 8 seasons... 4 of those 8 we failed to see 50 days. Average days with 6” over this period was 24.6 days. Again can see the reduced frequency over the past 10 seasons compared to the 90s and 2000s. Now the 12” chart is a real eye popper. Average days for this period was 8.6 days. Which is heavily skewed by the monster winters in the 70s. From 1993-2004 we had 5 out of 11 seasons with 10 or more days having 12” on the ground. Over the next 15 seasons following this we would only see 1 more season with over 10 days of 12” on the ground. Can cut the numbers any way you want but I think it does show we are having more trouble keeping a snowpack on the ground in the past few years regardless of where we shake out for actual snowfall for the season. .

What a joke. 30 seconds of pingers... 30 seconds of heavy big fat flakes... and back to flurries. I was determined to not lay a goose egg on this one so I stood there for a good five minutes until a flake fell perfectly against my ruler. 0.1”... 2 second rule before melting still counts right? .

UPDATE: Transition to a lake effect event occurs this afternoon as 2- 3 hour burst of moderate to heavy snow is expected across the area. Based on upstream observations in northern Ohio and the Niagara Peninsula in Ontario and latest hi-res guidance including the HRRR which has good handle on upstream trends, visibility could drop to less than one-half mile in heavier snow and winds may gust 30-40 mph as the snow moves through along track of shortwave rotating around parent upper low over the Upper Great Lakes. With short duration expected to the snow, going to handle this with Special Weather Statements and possibly Snow Squall Warnings if conditions warrant. Based on the guidance, seems best chance of needing Snow Squall Warnings will be from the Genesee valley eastward by late aftn, but will continue to monitor radar trends. Main takeaways from this initial burst of snow this afternoon is brief poor travel due to mainly low vsby and gusty winds. Also even with marginal temps in the lower 30s for snow accumulation there is some potential for quick snow accum on untreated roads. Already saw narrow band of snow sliding across Niagara county currently produce some snow on roads btwn St. Catherines and Niagara Falls an hour ago even as temps there were in the 34-36F range. .

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1001 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019 ...BURST OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW VISIBILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... A burst of moderate to heavy snow is expected by early this afternoon over western New York and by mid to late afternoon across the Genesee valley. Expect sharply reduced visibility below a half mile during heavier snow showers, along with wind gusts over 30 mph. The worst conditions are expected over the Niagara Frontier and western Southern Tier, including the Buffalo metro, between 11 AM and 2 PM, then over the Genesee valley, including the Rochester metro, between 1 PM and 4 PM. It is also possible snow squall warnings may be needed later today in some areas as this snow moves through. Expect the snow to transition to lake effect snow showers by early this evening. .

Seeing some nice lake enhancement with the precip blob over Southern Ontario. Actually a pretty good line firing up heading into Niagara County right now. Think this is going to be our only way to see any snow here today is to hope for some bursts like that to work through... .

Like excessive cow farts have been known to cause wobbles .

Well the snow spotters at ERI were just quoted saying they are not measuring snow by the generally accepted guidelines of 4 measurements every 6 hours... measuring in 3 hour intervals during the day when compression is highest then at an 8 hour interval overnight when compression is less. Also they are summing 5 daily measurements instead of the accepted 4. I believe this should make the data unofficial! .

Something is certainly not right! What are these sudden precip spikes during overcast conditions? How does 15.6" of snow only add 2" to the snow depth?

Good luck if you come up chasing this year. Feel free to hit me up if you do I can give you better specifics for a good hunt around Buffalo.

Keep your eyes on the upstate blog and wait for us all to start losing our $hit in the T minus 5 day range. If your traveling you got to be ready to drop everything and go. We're usually pretty accurate hitting these events but sometimes they do dud out, the big ones sometimes are a surprise. If your hitting the Buffalo area and looking for lodging I recommend the Hamburg area close to I 90. Your right in the middle of it usually and worst case only a 20-30 minute drive to the northern and southern band areas. Ive never chased off Ontario but heard it's quite an experience. Anywhere along 81 from Oswego to Watertown is gold. But you better be prepared for some extreme snow.