SouthBuffaloSteve

No way! That’s right in between me and dev. I had 2.2 he had 2.4. .

2.2” here at 8am. Seeing every p type possible in the last hour. Mainly light rain with some pellets mixed in but then we get a burst of some flakes then back to rain. Looks like it’s trying to organize better now... .

Still gotta go check the stick but looking like 1.5”-2” of slop here. Watching the radar run from overnight looks like the miss was in the fact the band just never organized like every one of the models showed that it would. Few good pulses and flare ups but most of the night nothing was going on. .

Waiting game time now to see where and when that band sets up... Another good update from BUF at 915. IR satellite imagery shows a break in this moisture, so expect snow off Lake Erie to temporarily taper off late this evening before a larger area of moisture arrives around midnight. The fact that snow with this initial round was fairly widespread helped provide the forecast confidence to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include northern Erie county and the Buffalo metro area. It`s also worth noting that the 00Z Buffalo sounding confirmed model forecasts with the 850mb temperature -6C. This will be a wet snow, and snow amounts will vary by location. In terms of band location, a snow band will re-develop after midnight and focus roughly from downtown Buffalo to the airport through daybreak. A well defined band should be in place across the Buffalo metro by the morning rush hour. Roadways will be slick at many locations for the morning commute. .

7pm update from BUF... Now that’s how you word an AFD! Temperatures aloft will be marginally cold enough to support lake effect snow through Wednesday with H85 temps around -6C. The first of two shortwaves is entering the region this evening and this has provided enough moisture for a modest lake effect band to develop northeast of Lake Erie. This primarily started as snow, especially a few miles inland from Lake Erie and this helped provide the forecast confidence to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include northern Erie county and the Buffalo metro area. This will be a wet snow, and snow amounts will vary by location. It is possible that snow will struggle to accumulate in downtown Buffalo, but will accumulate a several miles inland (along and inland of the I-190 and I-290 loop around downtown Buffalo. Expect up to 3 to 6 inches of snow accumulation in the most persistent snows through early Wednesday afternoon. In terms of band location, snow focused from downtown Buffalo to the airport early evening will meander north through late evening before settling slightly southward and back across the metro after midnight. This uses a consensus of model guidance but is adjusted slightly northward based on forecast winds and taking into account typically funnelling of winds by the Chautauqua ridge. .

WOW now... hold the chili sauce on that foot long! I don’t think we’re gonna go that crazy... but rather amusing the human factor is caving to what the models were showing 24 hours ago. WWA with 3-6” across the metro is a good call but a late call. Depending where the band camps out could max over 6” somewhere... First shortwave swinging through is really juicing up the band. Getting some decent returns over head... I’m back to all snow here now and it’s already accumulating on the roads... .

Anyone else having vivid flashbacks to October 2006??? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 604 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 NYZ010-040900- /O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0042.191204T0000Z-191205T1800Z/ Northern Erie- Including the city of Buffalo 604 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Erie county. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. .

Call me a weenie all you want but Im still going all in on dynamic cooling and high enough rates to overcome the thermal issues tonight. As we progress into the overnight though... deepening moisture will encourage more efficient snow production. The question will then be how cold will be low levels be for the wet snow to accumulate. This should not be a problem for elevated surfaces...but unless the snow is moderately heavy...it may have trouble sticking to most roads. This will prove to be critical in the BUF metro area where a well defined band should be in place by the morning rush hour. Will stay with a mix at this point...but if it falls as snow...roadways could become slick for the morning commute. This will continue to be evaluated by the ensuing forecast shifts. .

No it’s right on schedule! It wasn’t even suppose to be into the metro until around 8 and then drift north through midnight before heading back south. Snow is starting here in South Buffalo!!! .

90 at Hamburg Exit already showing snow... Not trying to get over excited here... but hold onto your butts! .

NWS getting scared on their call maybe? Just put up an open ended HWO for metro Buffalo tonight into tomorrow... Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 312 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 NYZ010-042015- Northern Erie- 312 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Lake effect showers will blossom across the northern half of the county tonight. While the activity should be a mix of rain and wet snow...there is the potential that the precipitation could change to all snow by daybreak. This could lead to a slushy coating on area roadways. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Moderately heavy lake effect will be found over the northern half of the county during the morning. While the activity could be mixed... there will be the risk that snow accumulations could reach a few inches if the precipitation falls as just snow. .

Yeah we had to be in the 6-8”/hr range here that first night. Had 36” down in 6 1/2 hours so averaging 6”/hr had to assume there were higher spikes in there. Really wish I hadn’t wrote that band off and went to bed when I did. I missed out on that. Only other time I can remember seeing rates like that was Dec 2001 one of the nights we were in a similar 6-8”/hr band for several hours. .

Also it is freaking December now. We shouldn’t be talking about rain mixing into a lake effect band. This thing has overachiever written all over it! .

Nice 11pm weather segment from Andy Parker. Channel 7 in house has the band setting up around 8pm. He talks about rain mixing in through midnight but expects a change to all snow after that. Has the band hang around the south side of the metro through most of the early morning before heading south. He took a step ahead of the pack calling for 1-3” in the city, 3-6” in the south towns. .

Yeah I get that take but I just wish there was more discussion on it... We always get the nity gritty details but now we have all the meso showing this band and popping higher end accumulations and we get a one sentence blurb that it accumulations SHOULD be insignificant. You would think they could mention thermal concerns briefly to add the human input side and rule out some of the model output data. Again going back to the overall QPF there is a good consensus of about 1/2” from this band over an 8 hour period. Even if it’s melting on contact your still talking about decent enough snowfall rates that they should earn some talk on the AFD. Oh well guess we will just have to wait and see what actually goes down tomorrow night.

I guess part of my confusion with this is how the NWS is discussing it. Considering all the meso are showing this band to varying extents the AFD seems to just breeze over this without explanation. Are we looking at a p type issue limiting accumulation or are we looking at poor dynamics for band formation? Yeah the NAM is throwing a super low ratio which would hold back accumulation but they are all showing about 1/2” of liquid from that band over a few hour period. The wording in the discussion of just light snow showers makes it seem like they don’t see this band organizing the way the models are depicting. Even the local guys standing in front of this dark blue snow band dancing across the city just saying they don’t see much accumulation... ok... well why? .

For the win!!! .

0z HRRR just popped a 6” stripe through noon Wednesday... .

Even the local station in house models are showing this band cranking up tomorrow night... but only a dusting??? .

So what’s the deal for Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM? NWS is writing it off as just some scattered snow showers but every single meso is showing a LES band setting up around the metro for at least a few hour window with a 3-6” bullseye somewhere in Erie County by sunrise. Can’t even find any of the locals talking about it. Are the models all out to lunch on this one? .

Few shots I took before we start melting... .

Warm nose is starting to work up into Buffalo and getting temps in some areas back above freezing. Still a little pocket of temps holding right at freezing over the city. Still observing freezing rain and a few ice pellets mixing in here at the moment. .

Even the plows are having trouble. State DOT truck rolled over on route 33... .

Lot of ice on the leading edge of the wings and back off the flaps. Tricky flying weather today for sure! .

Yeah I’m quite surprised how much ice is built up already. Tree limbs are starting to sag a bit. Looks like a brief lull in the precip next hour before it starts back up again... It’s like a hockey rink outside right now. Think the roads have been an issue due to the precip rate being so heavy it’s just washing the salt off the road... .