SouthBuffaloSteve

And then Don Paul just tweeted he’s only seeing 1-3” for the city... This is gonna be a fun event to track tomorrow with so much uncertainty... .

Calls from the locals as we move under 24 hours out. Channel 4s in house has a nice hit for the metro. 7 is out to lunch on this one. .

My point and click just got upped from 3-5 to 3-7. Think NWS does see some additional potential with that band tomorrow. Those winds are going to be a huge factor as that band moves back south. Depending on timing could be a very problematic PM commute. Wednesday Snow showers, mainly before 5pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow after 9am. High near 30. Windy, with a west wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 23 to 28 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. .

ARW which was spot on with placement for last weeks event stalls the band right over the city tomorrow around lunch time. Puts down 9” in 4 hours. .

Thing that stings the most is how typical of a “Buffalo” game that was. Played most of the game horribly but somehow managed to stay in it. We finally find a spark late in the game, pull off a few crazy plays to get ever so close to winning... and then bam get smacked right in the face back to reality. That and how we complained about the refs for 58 minutes of the game and then they hand us half the field in penalty yards on the last drive and we just couldn’t take advantage of it. .

Can’t beat up on Allen after that game. Everyone always bashes his stat line... well he had more completions and more yards and less interceptions than the possible league MVP did today. WGR threw out a crazy stat line that out of Allen’s 39 attempts he was blitzed on 30 of them. The kid got the snot beat out of him today, the line played like garbage and Dabol didn’t adjust the game plan to counter this at all! Oh wait he did when we ran it 7 straight plays and marched down the field... but then back to the same old crap next drive. 1st and goal from the 1... Let Allen jump the pile for the TD!!!! Nope put old man Gore in and call a sweep play... I missed most of the 1st quarter so didn’t see the overthrows but later in the game his deep shots were actually pretty accurate the receivers just couldn’t make the plays. And yeah he took a lot of sacks today but I’d rather see that then winging the ball up there for a possible interception. Overall just a bad offensive game plan and a lack of execution. Defense though... They looked great! .

This upcoming event reminds me of one very similar almost same date last year. 4-8” across Erie County. Also similar as the AFD mentions the snow band may merge with convergence along the cold front as it swings through Wednesday afternoon. That happened with this event and it gave us a pretty intense but very short lived burst. Timing almost looks identical right now too affecting both the AM and PM commute around the metro. No blockbuster this week but might give us a few fun hours of tracking. .

At least the good ol BTV gives some hope... .

NAM brings some good snow behind that front for East Central NY. Just picking up the LES at the end so next few runs I’ll be interested in following. .

Update to the AFD this morning... That said, have become a little less impressed with the overall shear profiles, which have become less favorable for a steady state heavy lake effect snow set up. .

Fantasy Land Range looking interesting. .

Oh my... Local mets are already throwing up snow accumulation maps for next week? That’s a bit irresponsible is it not? .

And so it begins... 3pm AFD... suggesting winds to be generally westerly/southwesterly for most of this time period 7pm AFD... suggesting winds to be generally westerly/west-southwesterly for most of this time period .

If your looking for an easy and safer route try taking 20. Get off the 90 at Transit Road in Depew and just keep heading due south. If you haven’t hit the band in West Seneca the road bends and turns into Southwestern Blvd at the Orchard Park town line. You can take that all the way to the state line if your heart desires. Nice thing about 20 is the state usually keeps it in really good shape for driving and if things get that intense there are tons of places you can pull off and camp out without being in the middle of no where. Driving those back roads through an intense band are terrifying in my opinion. .

Nothing like building the hype this early. It’ll just make our disappointment hurt that much more when us metro guys are watching that band roll in off the lake just to our south. Speaking of hype the local mets are already starting to sound the alarm to get everyone into panic mode. .

Buffalo moved record keeping from downtown out to the airport in 1943. Just love this book... .

They kinda won it back in 1947-48. Albany 90.0” Buffalo 42.1” Rochester 75.5” Binghamton and Syracuse did not have official record keeping sites that were recognized by the NWS at the time however. .

18 GFS still holding onto that area of low pressure rapidly deepening as it cuts up through the lakes next week Tuesday into Wednesday. 12 Euro has a very similar but weaker low during the same time. Still a week out but the one thing the models have been good at hitting so far this year is the wind storms with this track so bears some close watching. SW winds gusting 60-70mph up the lake behind the trailing cold front with a lake effect band sinking south through the city. .

Took a core sample off my board at 2pm today. 2.9” of snow melted down to 1.55” of liquid. Granted a lot of that was rain getting absorbed into the snow but still crazy. .

Only 3-4” at Transit and French. Just flurries here now. Heavy snow with big fat flakes when I got off the 400. Southward we go! .

Can barley see the 400 in West Seneca. Think I’m gonna go take a drive. .

Just picked up 3/4” in the last hour here from that little burst. To just think if this had been all snow we would be talking 12-18” across the entire metro. .

Few of the meso are trying to build that NW band tomorrow... BUF says otherwise... Lake effect snow will be ongoing southeast of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Thursday morning within a northwest flow as troughing remains over Ontario. Synoptic moisture will get stripped away through the day with lake snows diminishing during the late morning/early afternoon. .

Hmm... back to all snow again here and it’s coming down at a pretty good clip. Fresh coating on the road again. .

Looking at the traffic cams really sharp cutoff where the snow mix is hitting. 90 at the tolls looks mainly rain. 90 at Transit it’s snow at a good clip. It’s a full on down pouring rain here currently. .