SouthBuffaloSteve

Not seeing that SW flow bro... I’m not expecting us to see anything in the way of lake effect in the metro tomorrow morning. I like the NWS call that the band will hug the lake shore and maybe get as north as Hamburg OP East Aurora for a few inches. We will probably grab an inch around the city when the front moves through with a little squall line and the initial surge of added moisture. Should be a good event for the Chautauqua Ridge finally. .

The slow painful death of Lake Erie begins... .

Well on a positive note... at least none of us have to worry about mixing issues today. Haven’t been able to say that too many times this year. .

Off topic but a pretty interesting article... https://www.accuweather.com/en/space-news/satellite-evades-day-of-reckoning-to-discovering-puzzling-weather-phenomenon-on-jupiter/645254 .

Trying to find some excitement with this but just can’t... Think this is the first time this season the human is calling for something the models aren’t really showing. Off Lake Erie... Overnight, boundary layer flow will begin to back to the west and southwest ahead of the next system. This will allow the upslope snow showers to re-organize into a more shore parallel band along the Chautauqua County shoreline after midnight. This band will then move northward towards Buffalo by the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday. Expect the band of lake snow to briefly make it up to about Buffalo and Batavia. Note, this idea is north of most of the high resolution model guidance, which often has a notable southward bias in these situations. This will occur right during the morning commute. Expect accumulations of 3-5 inches on average for Wednesday where the bands persist the longest. .

Nail bitter so far! Snows knocking on the door! Maybe late 4th quarter arrival? Would be too cool! .

Look at that your 5 minutes off the plane and here we go. BUF issues a HWO for lake effect potential mid week. Not much but something! Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY Northern Erie-Genesee- 1245 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Lake effect snow may develop late Tuesday night through Wednesday east of Lake Erie. The snow may briefly impact the area from Buffalo to Batavia before moving south into the Southern Tier. Moderate accumulations are possible if the band remains across the area long enough. GFS was is throwing a pretty intense band on a WSW flow... winds won’t hold long but maybe a couple hour window. .

Should be a good snow game in KC today! https://fbwat.ch/1dt36raJD5Lzz4KF .

I know we can see some neat pictures of our big storms these days but they just never seem to compare to pictures of the old days like that one. I ran across this one the other day. From March 1947 in the Buffalo south towns. I mean that’s nuts. What’s more nuts is the storm(s) that produced that weren’t even important enough to make it into the Buffalo Blizzard Book... .

Pretty intense squall rolling through Niagara County right now. Cams are full whiteout when this passed through... .

Totally agree! Seems those of us that were younger remember the 90s and early 2000s being great winters. Seemed every year we started building up snow around Thanksgiving, held it through Christmas, had the yearly “January Thaw” before another few weeks of winter. Now it’s nickel and dime snow that melts a day or two later and we don’t really get into a prolonged winter pattern until we hit January. Who knows maybe it is global warming... .

Been watching that time period for last 2 days and again another feature (small as it may be) that gave some nice looks but gets less and less impressive each run. Nice write up from BUF on this. AFD- Colder air will then flow over the Eastern Great Lakes later Tuesday and into Tuesday night, with temperatures at 850 hPa falling down to around -12 to -14C. This will result in lake effect snow forming, to the east of the Lakes. Winds may back enough ahead of another surface trough late Tuesday night to bring snows as far north as Buffalo, while to the east of Lake Ontario a long westerly fetch over Lake Ontario will primarily orient the band of lake effect snow Tuesday afternoon and night towards the Tug Hill. While inversion heights will rise to over 10K feet east of both Lakes, and low level lapse rates increase to over 8 C/km moisture will again be marginal for heavy lake effect snowbands to form. Also 850 hPa low does not really close off, but rather is just a passing upper level trough...which can lead to oscillating bands of snow. As a result, snow maximums east of both lakes may just end up low - mid advisory range. .

Up to 35 at KBUF this morning. Some nice RAIN streamers coming in off the lakes to wash away our slush from yesterday. .

Wow actually some pretty nice totals in Southern Erie County. Look what an extra 1000’ gets! .

If you followed the model output on this one you got burned big time. NWS took the safe route, overshot, but eh quite honestly don’t think they’ll see a lot of negative feedback from the public as it was only a WWA and it was actually pretty crappy driving for a few hours. But for the weenies who jumped on the train they got let down for sure. Everything was there but the temps screwed us again... at least 3rd time this year the models have gone in strong agreement on a too cold bias. Guarantee next system we see come through this marginal the human input is going to toss out any excessive accumulation maps like we have been seeing. Yeah that’ll be the the one that actually taps the cold and overachieves. Ah well it was fun tracking this piece of crap through the state today. Snow on the board today 0.8”. Melted Equivalent 0.32”. We need a powder storm... looks like a freaking snow cone machine exploded outside... slop! .

Double vision... just take your number and cut it in half... should be close enough[emoji2957] .

How’s everyone else in WNY fairing? Flake size and intensity has dropped off dramatically. Small pellets, few flakes, and even some rain mixing back in. Only 3/4” on my board. Snow is so water packed it’s almost translucent instead of white. Trying to time my measurement to get the most snow possible but also want to get a liquid equivalent on this slop. .

Nice video. Snow rates a lot better up near the ridge where the video starts vs downtown at the end. https://fbwat.ch/1ErurQQfQ3PaK31O .

Nah still just a meh here for me. 6” melt... 6” melt.., 6” melt... is a vicious cycle. We just can’t hold a snowpack here like you guys can. This time of the year give me a big storm to enjoy. Save these little flake jobs for January when we have sustained cold to build a snowpack. You guys are always late to the party anyways. Were usually ready to call it a warp by mid February with our lake out of commission while you guys are right in the thick of it! .

Should start getting better soon I’m thinking. Pavement has had a slushy cost building up for the last 20-30 minutes now here. Once we get past 4pm I think we’ll have better conditions for “snow on the ground” in BUF. Higher elevations I bet though are getting smoked right now. The earlier switch over was nice but was harder building that up with marginal temps and durinal effects at midday noon time. If this was timed a few hour later I think we would have seen better temp drops to let the snow actually accumulate. Going to depend just how much longer WNY stays under that better precip shield and if we can get in on any of that lake enhanced flow at the lower elevations. It keeps back building off the screen so would assume at least a few more hours. .

ICON showing a brief window for a SW flow to setup behind the next system. What a great little winter streak we are setting up over the next few days! .

All snow here now and already accumulating without issue on grass, cars, snowboard. Pavement is probably going to be a while but on our way! .

Was going to question the wet snow reports around BUF until I saw that cam shows a good changeover underway... Just drove home from OP area and not a flake on the trip. Errr wait scratch that my 5 year old just started yelling it’s snowing and sure enough there it is. That was a quick flip. Let the games begin! .

WWA now for Buf out to Roc. 3-5” for lower elevations. Been off the grid for last 2 days where did this thing come from? .

This is a riot! .