eyewall

oof devastating run on the NAM. Hopefully it is just way off.

yeah at this point I'll take it!

We all know there is going to be some back and forth from run to run at this point. This is my latest call:

This is going to be a roller coaster ride all the way until the storm arrives.

Raleigh AFD: Cold high pressure will again build into the region in the wake of the departing low Sat night. While the exact track of the low remains uncertain, the overall character and track of the system remains consistently a Miller A scenario, which (as noted in the previous discussion) favors a p-type distribution of mostly rain/snow with a narrow corridor of mixed p- type separating the two regimes. With the cold air in place and sufficient lift and saturation in the dendritic growth zone, latest guidance suggests snow at the onset in most, if not all locations. As the low approaches, a strengthening warm nose aloft could be strong enough to melt the falling snow, which would result in either sleet or freezing rain (where sfc temps are at or below 0 degrees C) depending on whether it is able to refreeze before making it to the ground. Some of the biggest questions continue to be where the rain/snow line will set up and how much sleet will mix in and over what area, both of which will impact total accumulations. There is still too much uncertainty to answer those questions with much confidence. Latest available guidance generally suggests the rain/snow line should lift nnwwd through the area Fri night as the low lifts along the Carolina coast, possibly making it as far as the climatologically favored I-85 corridor, with mainly snow to the north, a wintry mix along, and mainly rain to the south of the line. Precipitation onset will likely be between 21Z Fri and 03Z Sat, with the precipitation quickly exiting the area Sat late morning/early aft.

Yeah it is a very rough outline. I will update more precisely tomorrow.

First call:

I wonder if what we are seeing is more consolidation in the expected low track.

That is true so no complaints here. It is getting ever closer to call map time.

I think overall the better models are probably picking up more on the snowpack to the north in the Mid-Atlantic and yeah the Ukie is not great on thermals. Any of these tracks from this morning should break the RDU snowless streak. Honestly for photography purposes snow then ZR can be good if the trees get nice and glassy.

Still room for improvement with the GFS:

As long as I can get decent shots at daybreak I am good with it.

Yeah night favors better accumulation chances for sure. That is a good point.

For those that are new:

I would take that all day long!

It was in fact a Lake Effect Streamer of sorts:

Yeah it started to weaken a bit by the time I got there. Saw a very minor accumulation in the grass but fun none the less.

Nice to see things looking better this morning instead of weenies getting the toaster baths ready.

One more from the band https://www.facebook.com/share/v/15J5uQiHNa/

Caught it near Bailey NC https://www.facebook.com/share/v/18QxHFyuED/

There is ensemble support with the Euro for a less amped solution and a decent amount of members that take RDU out of the grey and into at least the blue colors for amounts (better than an inch).

Flurries in Raleigh

Breathe damn it! Clear!!! Call it! Time of death 22:58z 1/6

Any farther inland and I will be rooting for the warm sector and low-topped supercells.

1100 days definitely on the table for RDU.